Chi Guangsheng: How much is the impact of the monetization of shed reform on China's third and fourth -tier property market?Why tighten mortgage supplementary loans?Where will the third and fourth -tier property market go?
Update on September 27, 2018 at 06:01 Dongxing Securities Chief Solid Harvest Analyst Chi Guangsheng FT Chinese Network Writing
In recent years, housing prices in many third- and fourth -tier cities have benefited from the monetization of shed reform and rose significantly. As the NCBC's contract approval authority recovered the contract approval of the shed reform project at the end of June, the market began to hotly discuss the goal of the third and fourth -tier property market.So, what is the impact of the monetization of shed reform on the third and fourth -tier property market?Why tighten PSL (mortgage supplementary loan)?Where will the third and fourth -tier property market go?
Shed reform monetization helps to invent in the third and fourth -tier line
Although the renovation project of China shantytowns can be traced back to 2005, it has been slowly advancing by issues such as funding sources. In the 2014 government work report, the first time in the future, the urban shantytowns and urban villages of about 100 million people lived.The reform project has begun to be widely implemented nationwide, but it is still mainly based on physical resettlement.
In June 2015, the State Council issued opinions on further doing a good job in the reconstruction of urban shantytowns and urban and rural dilapidated houses and supporting infrastructure construction.The set is clearly required to actively promote the monetization resettlement of the shed reform. 2015 is the beginning of the rapid progress of the monetization of Chinese shed reform.
Data show that the monetization rate in China reached 29.9%in the first year of advocating monetary resettlement, continued to increase to 48.5%in 2016, and further soared to about 60%in 2017.
For the real estate market, the monetization of shed reform is not only conducive to the sales of commercial housing, but also to a certain extent.The impact of the monetization of shed reform on local house prices is mainly manifested in the shed reform residents to buy a large number of houses after obtaining currency, and even add leverage to buy houses or provide house purchase funds to non -shed reform objects.Ring motivation.When the house prices suddenly started to rise for many years, the house purchase momentum of other residents was activated. The potential demand for housing purchases accumulated for many years began to release, and house prices continued to rise.
With the rise in house prices, residents with relatively weak purchasing power have begun to choose down payment loans or credit cards for down payment and leverage to buy houses. The frozen property market accelerates boiling.
Residents are keen on the down payment plus leverage purchase houses in addition to the hot down payment loans in 2017, they can also observe from the rapid growth of residents who have soared rapidly that the average growth rate of short -term loans in residents in 2016 was only 7.3%.In February 2018, it was historically soaring to 21.5%. Since then, as the state has increased the impact of the chaos of down payment loans and credit card cash, the growth rate of residents' short -term loans has begun to fall slightly.More than 19%.
Residents of the third and fourth -tier tiers will increase the purchase of housing in itself, which will push up the local commercial housing sales area. In addition, due to statistical caliber reasons, the area of resettlement houses that are not originally belonging to the commercial housing will be included in the sales area of commercial housing under the conditions of monetization resettlement conditions., Thus bringing the rapid rise of the commercial housing sales area of the shed reform cities.
Preliminary statistics, according to the simple calculation of a single set of 90 square meters, the additional sales area brought by the monetization of shed reform in 2016 and 2017 was as high as 260 million square meters and 330 million square meters, respectively.%And 22.7%.
In addition, the monetization of shed reform has also pushed up the national real estate investment to a certain extent. On the one hand, the value of the land for marketization is higher. On the other hand, the monetization of the shed reform is conducive to the increase in the inventory and housing prices of ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities, so asIt will attract foreign developers to settle in, and land prices will be opened. From a micro perspective, the rapid promotion of the monetization of shed reform will have an important impact on the real estate market of many third- and fourth -tier cities. Especially for ordinary third -tier and fourth -tier cities far from first and second -tier core cities, it is difficult for them to enjoyThe spillover effect of core cities, coupled with the constraints of the population and industry, the property market has maintained a downturn in a long period of time. The monetization of sheds plays a vital role in the rise of these third- and fourth -tier cities.
Since 2016, especially since the New Deal of 930 in 2016, housing prices in ordinary third- and fourth-tier cities such as Xiangyang and Tai'an have surged by more than 30%.%, The area of commercial housing to be sold was reduced by 9.8%and 6.5%, respectively, while the area of the Ganzhou commercial house was sold by 79.9%year -on -year in 2015.
As housing prices rose and sales recovered, the inventory of ordinary third- and fourth-tier cities began to decline rapidly. In 2015, the Quanzhou inventory exfoliating cycle in 2015 was about 4 years. From 2016-2017 to 2.5 and 1.9 years, in 2018, in 2018, in 2018From January to July, the average divorce cycle is less than 1.5 years.
Regardless of the real estate market or in the perspective of micro -cities, the monetization of shed reform has made important contributions to the prosperity of the third and fourth -tier property market in recent years.If the first and second -tier core cities are mainly relying on the good industrial foundation and population absorption, the third- and fourth -tier cities around the core cities mainly benefit from the spillover effect caused by urban circles, then ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities far from core cities basically rely onLoose benefits of the property market brought by the monetization of shed reform
EssenceWith the continuous advancement of shed reform, the inventory of ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities has fallen significantly.Preliminary estimates that the current number of cities with a significant than 24 months will be relatively limited, and the cumulative residential area announced by the Bureau of Statistics has fallen to the level before 2013.
Tighten PSL is imperative
After 4 trillion stimulus, the Chinese property market once had a short -term rapid recovery, but then began to enter the long winter, the transaction area continued to decline, the development investment was nearly negative, and the current housing inventory soared rapidly.The commercial housing market is bleak, and the land transfer is difficult. In the context of the original market and light guarantee, the decline in local financial resources has further weakened the willingness to spend on the guarantee housing.How to resolve excessively high commercial housing inventory and ensure the basic housing needs of urban residents have become a top priority in front of the government, and the renovation of shantytowns came into being.
The original intention of shed reform is mainly focused on strengthening urbanization management innovation and mechanism construction, and preventing high -rise buildings and shantytowns on one side. Therefore, the shed reform before 2015 is mainly to solve or make up for the relatively insufficient construction of local government affordable housing construction. Basically, basically it is basically.It can be determined as a guarantee policy.
However, after a strong implementation of about 1 year, it is found that although the shed reform in the form of real -object placement has played an important role in improving the living conditions and living conditions of the shantytown residents, it has inadvertently increased the inventory pressure of commercial housing.Residents have built a large number of affordable housing, and there are a large number of commercial housing on the one hand. Many cities have shown the strange phenomenon of affordable housing construction, the slow sales of commercial housing, and soaring total inventory.
How to eliminate this kind of contradictory phenomenon, and perfectly do the affordable house resettlement and commercial housing to achieve perfect docking?Cities such as Fuzhou have explored the policy of buying commercial housing from the developer, and then distributed to the demolition households at a parity, but it is subject to the pressure of local government financial resources.Many projects may not be suitable for resettlement houses.
To this end, in June 2015, the State Council issued opinions on further doing a good job in the reconstruction of urban shantytowns and urban and rural dilapidated houses and supporting infrastructure construction. It is clearly required to actively promote the monetization resettlement of shed reform.
From the perspective of the effectiveness of politics, the monetization of shed reform has indeed resolved the high inventory problems of a large number of third- and fourth -tier cities in China, reversing the patterns that these cities have provided over the years, and promoted the healthy development of these third- and fourth -tier property markets.
However, with the continuous advancement of the monetization of the shed reform, Shandong, Henan, and Hebei and other shed reform provincesCommercial housing inventory in ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities has declined significantly, and the supply and demand pattern is shifting from previous supply and demand to the basic balance or supply. House prices in cities such as Tai'an, Luoyang and Jining have increased by more than 50%compared to early 2016.
From 2016-2017, the central bank's PSL net increase was as high as 970 billion yuan and more than 630 billion yuan, respectively. The net investment in the first half of 2018 exceeded 520 billion yuan. Such a large amount of funds have become boosters for housing prices in ordinary third- and fourth-tier cities.The current housing prices in third- and fourth -tier cities have a bubble tendency.
It should be said that the monetization of shed reform has basically completed the historical mission of its destocking.Benefiting from the advantages of industry, population and supporting, core first -tier and second -tier cities have attracted more and more housing buyers, but affected by policies such as restrictions on purchase and loans, a large number of residents have begun to spill on third- and fourth -tier cities around the core cities. These threeThe inventory of fourth -tier cities has been rapidly digested, and the monetization of shed reform has quickly reduced the inventory of ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities. The problem of high inventory of commercial housing in the country has basically been resolved, and the supply and demand pattern of a large number of third- and fourth -tier cities has been completely reversed.
At this time, continuing to put PSL to increase the monetization of sheds will undoubtedly further promote housing prices in third- and fourth -tier cities. However, under the condition of weak industrial foundations in these cities and limited population absorption capacity, housing prices will continue to rise.It is imperative to accelerate the differentiation of the rich and the poor and the hidden dangers for economic and financial stability, and it is imperative to tighten PSL.
Where to go from the third and fourth -tier property market
Since the monetization of the shed reform has helped the housing prices in ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities, will it mean that the great tightening of the monetization of shed reform will cause housing prices in third- and fourth -tier cities to plummet?Although housing prices in some third -tier and fourth -tier cities may have a significant recovery, in general, our judgment on the third and fourth -tier property market is two significant differentiation.
The first obvious differentiation appears between ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities and the third and fourth -tier cities that enjoy the spillover of core cities: PSL tightening will have a negative impact on the sales of third- and fourth -tier cities that previously rely on the monetization of shed reform.The enthusiasm of housing companies, especially foreign housing companies, in these cities, and the weakening of brand housing companies' entry efforts will have a negative impact on local housing prices.
Correspondingly, in the context of long -term control of the first and second -tier lines, national housing companies and brand housing companies have switched to the third and fourth -tier lines. After the weakening of the currencyization of ordinary three -tier sheds, they will enjoy moreThird and fourth -tier cities with overflowing core cities have brought about upward pressure on house prices in these third -tier and fourth -tier cities.
The second significant differentiation appears inside ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities: those third- and fourth -tier cities with good land discipline, low speculation, certain industrial support, and large absorption of the counties and counties will be maintained.In contrast, if the local government has poor land discipline, the industrial and population foundation is weak, but the foaming price is expected to be obviously recovered in third- and fourth -tier cities.
Although housing prices in some third -tier and fourth -tier cities may face large downlink pressure, as the monetization of shed reform has greatly reduced the inventory of commercial housing in ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities since 2016, and more and more cities have been required to be requiredFor the preparation of urban development planning, future land supply may be determined more based on the future development needs of the city or the supply and demand of commercial housing, rather than the free transfer according to the financial needs of the local government or the high and low land prices.The development of low inventory and land transfer discipline is conducive to maintaining stable housing prices in third- and fourth -tier cities.
At the same time, the current monetization policy of the shed reform has only turned from the previous flowers to the policy of the city. It has not been cut. Places with large inventory can continue to promote the monetization resettlement of shed reform.Therefore, the tightening of monetization of shed reform does not mean that the third and fourth -tier property market is frost.
In addition to the impact on housing prices, PSL tightening will also affect the area of commercial housing in third- and fourth -tier cities and real estate investment, and the differential materials between developers will continue to accelerate.After the currency is tightening, the potential potential commercial house sales area corresponding to it may be statistically statistical as a resettlement house, thereby directly lowering the sales data of commercial housing.
At the same time, considering that the monetization of shed reform is not conducive to the sales of commercial housing in ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities, especially for those cities with a high degree of speculative levels, the momentum of foreign housing companies and brand housing companies will continue to decline in landing land.However, due to the strict regulation of core cities and high land prices in high -quality third- and fourth -tier cities, it is expected that the land acquisition of housing companies in these cities is difficult to completely replace the contraction of ordinary third- and fourth -tier cities, so it may have a negative impact on real estate investmentEssence
In addition, with the beginning of fever in the third and fourth -tier property market, the regulation of the property market has become stricter and stricter and the funds of housing enterprises are getting scarce.sad.
Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development requires stable land prices, housing prices, stable expectations, and resolutely accountability for places with poor work, large market fluctuations, and failure to achieve the target of regulation and control.Previously, more new choices for land transfer of urban land, operating capabilities are becoming more and more important for developers, and housing companies are accelerating differentiation.
(Note: This article only represents the author's point of view. The editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected])
