Author: Luo Qingsheng
On September 24, the United States launched a 10%tariff on the total value of US $ 200 billion in mainland China imports, and the mainland also launched an anti -counterpart tariff.But unlike the first two rounds, the mainland immediately released the white paper of "the facts of the Sino -US economic and trade friction and the Chinese position", and canceled the original trade dialogue scheduled to be in late September, and began to turn into an attack.
As the White Paper pointed out, the mainland's position on the trade war is "unwilling to fight, not afraid of fighting, and have to fight if necessary". In the first two rounds of tariff sanctions, the mainland has adopted relative revengeism., Homemade and passive.That is, how tariffs are imposed on the United States, how tariffs are implemented in the mainland; the same scale will never exceed, and at the same time, it will not start in advance.Therefore, this time the mainland published a papers, emphasizing that the negotiations "cannot be carried out under the threat of tariff sticks", and then canceled the trade dialogue.
The mainland's attitude towards the trade war makes the trade war that was originally tilted with the United States may shift to the mainland to a certain extent.
First of all, mainland officials and the people have restored their confidence in the trade war.Trump's time to launch a trade war may not be deliberately selected, but it is very unfavorable to the mainland.This is because the mainland is "supply -side reform", driven by policies such as de -capacity, destocking, deleveraging, etc., the economy originally faced downward pressure.Trump's trade war is equivalent to watering cold water to patients who are adjusting, so the response is particularly strong.The stock market plummeted, the RMB derogatory, and ZTE's sanctions caused a review.The market confidence is insufficient, and the shadow of funds has been lingering.The mainland has adopted a negative "guarding but not attacking" on the trade war. It is much worried that accidental operations may cause the intention to predict risk.
The stability of the mainland finally had a price.In July, the first wave of US $ 34 billion in US $ 34 billion was launched, and the RMB depreciated sharply to 3%. However, foreign exchange deposits not only did not decrease, but increased by 5.8 billion US dollars.This resolves the doubts of funds, showing that the impact of the trade war on the mainland economy is not as serious as it is imagined.After mid -August, the renminbi stabilized, and the confidence of the mainland's officials and civilians recovered, and there were conditions for the "turn to attack" against the trade war.
Secondly, the determination of the trade fighting to the end.The white paper is a formal document. The mainland is willing to negotiate but does not negotiate under the threat of tariffs. After this announcement, it becomes a policy.This not only shows that the United States shall levy tariffs on the total value of US $ 200 billion in goods, and the mainland will cancel trade dialogue; it also explicitly shows that Trump and their eagle staff will impose tariffs on the $ 267 billion commodity goods, and they will also refuse to negotiate negotiations.EssenceJust as the Chuan Puying staff often emphasizes: Do not estimate Trump's determination; the mainland publish a white paper to tell the United States: Do not underestimate our determination.
After the ball returns to the United States, how the trade war will develop depends on Trump's decision.The mainland's taxation on the US agricultural products has reached the weakness of the United States, and the farm income from various places is generally decreased compared with last year. According to the data of the Economic Research Agency affiliated to the US Department of Agriculture, the heaviest eastern highlands, the revenue decreased by 30%.Even if the subsidy of US $ 12 billion is sacrificed, farmers are unhappy.Trump relied on the support of the agricultural state and the rust belt. The farmer can be said to be Trump's "the softest in his heart". When more and more American farmers oppose the trade war, and may even affect the Republican party's election, TrumpHow to choose, the world is waiting and seeing.
(The author is a researcher at Tamkang University Integration Strategy and Technology Center)
