Author: Zhao Chunshan
Since April this year, South Korean President Moon Jae -in and North Korean leader Kim Jong -un have held three peak meetings one after another.Wen Zaiyin's trip to Pyongyang this time, it has been 11 years since Roh Moo -hyun's visit in 2007.Wen Zaiyin can say that this trip is not false. He and Kim Jong -un signed the "Pyongyang Declaration"; the Minister of Defense of the South Korea and North Korea also signed the "Agreement on the implementation of the consensus in the military field in the Banmen Store Declaration".
Judging from the above -mentioned "Declaration" and "Agreement", Kim Jong -un promised to visit Shouhe and both parties to jointly apply for the 2032 Olympic Games, strengthen economic and cultural exchanges on the basis of mutual benefit, and establish a banned area in border areas.Establish a buffer near the military division line and the Yellow Sea, and each from the withdrawal of 11 border guards from the non -military district to terminate the military hostility of both sides to terminate the war crisis of the Korean Peninsula.Involved in the nuclear issue of the concern, the two parties also reached an agreement on the nuclearization of the peninsula without denuclearization, and agreed to build a non -nuclearized homeland.
More importantly, North Korea promised to close the Ningbian Atomic Energy Research Center under conditions; under international testimony, the missile engine test site and the rocket launcher were abolished.
South Korea officials believe that the above agreement is actually equal to the state of termination of the war between the two Koreas, and it is also equivalent to the signing of the "mutual infringement agreement"; the Korean official media emphasized that the Cultural Three Council has opened a major opportunity for a unified new era.
The reconciliation of the Korean and North Korean sides is started by the leaders of the two sides, but whether the agreement reached to be implemented should also see the development of the following factors.First of all, the interaction between the two Koreas is the official first and behind the folk temple, so there is a lack of solid social foundation.Foreign news reports that the Korean people are not keen on the attitude towards the "Golden Society", and their doubts about the Kim family have not been eliminated.Foreign observer believes that if Kim Jong -un visited Shouho during the year, he may trigger a political storm in South Korea and even intensify political confrontation within South Korea.
Secondly, the bidding relationship between China and the United States will also affect the peaceful development of the Korean Peninsula.Some American scholars have questioned that North Korea's real intention is to leave the United States and South Korea alliance and implement the strategy of "dividing and recruiting" in South Korea; mainland China hopes to settle the Belt and Road to the Korean Peninsula through South Korea.In addition, although the Wenjin Third Association has the idea of expanding the cultural and economic exchanges between the two parties, unless the United States abandon North Korea to implement the "complete, verifiable, and irreversible nuclearization" requirements, otherwise the UN Security Council will not loosen the looseningReasons for economic sanctions on North Korea.
In the end, before Kim Jong -un received sufficient security and obtaining sufficient economic assistance, he would not give up the existing nuclear military equipment.Kim Jong -un's nuclearization conditions were eventually based on the premise of "corresponding measures" in the United States, so whether to go to the nuclearization, and in the end, it must be negotiated by Sichuan Kim.
The situation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits and the Korean Korean is different. The same is the influence of international power and politics. The difference is that cross -strait relations are "one country, two governance", and the "division of rule";The relationship between "country and the country" is the situation of "division".Therefore, the international status of the two Koreas is evenly matched, and the two sides of the strait are "I have to eliminate me." Of course, Taiwan's international pressure has exceeded the two Koreas.On the other hand, before the cross -strait folk exchanges walked in front of the two Koreas, it not only produced a situation of mutual benefit and win -win situation, but also deepened the feelings of the people on both sides of the strait. Recently, the Taiwan polls show that the people's favor for the mainland people has increased a lot more than in the past.
Unfortunately, the official relationship between the two sides of the strait has currently a serious retrogression.The opposite side refused to communicate with the DPP government, and the two sides seemed to be in a state of "no smoke".The two Korean relations have appeared in the dawn of peace in the third and Korean relations; when the two sides of the war have a day to see the day?
(The author is Honorary Professor of the Institute of Mainland China of Tamkang University)
