Taiwan Economic Daily reporter Tang Shujun reported
Investors around the world are glad that the global market has recovered from the financial tsunami in 2008, but at this moment, the hot topic of Asian investors is: Can the Asian financial turmoil from 1997 to 1998 cannot make a comeback?Because US President Trump is raising a trade war in China, it may still be roughly dependent on the Asian countries exported.
The trade conflict between Washington and Beijing has not been flat, and waves have risen again.Since July, the Trump administration has imposed a 25%import tariff on $ 50 billion in Chinese products worth $ 50 billion.In January next year, the tax rate was raised to 25%.Another wave of tariffs at $ 267 billion in land goods may follow.
The Trump trade protectionist operation has intensified, and for the Asian emerging market economy, the timing is not bad.
The Chinese stock market just wrote a disgraceful record on the 17th. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index was harvested on the lowest closing price in 2014, and continued the decline of 5 trillion dollars in the market value of 5 trillion dollars in June.Asian currencies are also degraded to the US dollar. The Indonesian Shield has depreciated by 10%this year, the Philippines pushing is 8.5%, and the Indian rupee has reached 13%.
The market speculators are most likely to be impacted by the interest rate raising of the Fed (FED) in Asia. The first choice of sniper targets are countries with frequent account deficit and budget deficit.This has caused Jakarta, Manila and New Delhi, and the foreign exchange market to be disadvantaged, and its resistance is not as good as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.
However, the trade war launched by Trump has made the Asian nations "equal equality", but this does not mean good things.Asian countries are facing a common threat, that is, the Chinese economy is stagnant, which makes people smell as if in 1997.
Although compared with 20 years ago, Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia have made great progress today. Not only are the financial systems more sound, the government is more transparent, and corporate governance has improved.However, Asia is still excessively relying on exports, and the level of debt is also high. The debt level of emerging Asian Asia has increased tripled in the past ten years.
In case the Chinese economy has a major chaos, it may drag down the economy of Asian countries.Economic Consultant GaveKal Research head, ARTHUR Kroeber, said that Trump's tariffs launched the same "war consumption", Nomura Securities analysts also warned that China's exports may be "steep" and investors must not be guarded.The annualized growth rate of exports in August was still 9.8%, but the increase has slowed significantly compared with 12.2%in July. The export increase may be turned into black in the next few months.
It may be far and extensive in the connection damage.Pisike pointed out that the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been abandoned in the past for nearly six years. South Korean President Moon Jae -in promised to jump the votes for the new company's entrepreneurial campaign.The struggle of Taiwanese companies to regain innovation also faces the increasingly strong backwind.
The threat brought by Trump is not just tariffs, but the style of acting is impermanent.For example, Trump chose Powell as the chairman of the FED, but also tweeted that Powell raised interest rates twice after taking office in February, "very uncomfortable", thinking that "FED should help me", implying that he prefers low interest rates and does not like the US dollar appreciation., To help support American manufacturers.
All in all, Asia must be alert, be careful to prevent Trump who loses new grenades to global trade, or criticize FED decisions, or his impulse may crack down on US dollars and US debt, thereby setting off the turbulent financial market turmoilEssenceAnother risk worthy of attention is that Trump, who is lingering in the political scandal, will there be any amazing movement for the sake of dispersion (for example, launching military operations to Pyongyang or Tehran?), That is bound to pullThe hind legs of the US stock market.
Even though there are too many development irreversible materials, Pessel believes that at least one thing is clear: During the Trump era, the Asian economy was facing the biggest threat in 20 years.
