Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times Society

The 10th anniversary of the expiration of the international financial tsunami erupted. Whether or not to repeat the financial crisis drama today is being enthusiastically discussed by the global financial community.At present, the weakening of mainland China has attracted great attention, and even some mainstream foreign media (such as the Wall Street Journal) believes that the mainland is one of the detonation points of Xiabo's international financial crisis.In this regard, we are fair that the mainland has never detonated the "former department" that detonated the international financial crisis, but the "stagnant inflation" exposed by the mainland recently should not be ignored.The mainland itself must fight for full effort to prevent this "stagnation".

Looking back on September 15, 2008, the Lehman brothers of the United States investment bank closed down, causing the global financial tsunami to explode, and it also impacted mainland China.After that, the governments of the East and the West have adopted the "printed banknote" -style large -handed loose currency means, and artificially guided the large -scale interest rate cut cycle to save the economy.

As a result, in terms of global scope, the most commonly benefited is speculative asset transactions such as real estate and stocks; as for the development of the real economy, it is relatively false.Therefore, on the surface, the growth of GDP (GDP) of various countries on the surface has stabilized, but the gap between the rich and the poor in the society has deteriorated, and the income and purchasing power of the majority of work in the society have not improved.State -owned and politicians can publicize "stable economy, and prices are flat."

This story has also been staged in the mainland in the past 10 years. Moreover, the method of saving the economy by the mainland government was super fierce. After the outbreak of the financial tsunami broke out, the "4 trillion yuan yuan expanded domestic demand project was expanded in early 2009 after the financial tsunami broke out.Investment "big plan has become an international focus point.

And this investment really made the mainland GDP very aggressive in 2009, and increased by 8.7%. It was when the financial tsunami storm was still stunned.Then, in 2010, the mainland's economy continued to grow at a high speed, so its total GDP surpassed Japan this year and became the second largest in the world after the United States.

However, these 4 trillion yuan investment also derived the boom of real estate investment (or speculative) of the mainland. Until now, it has only cool down and has not yet receded.Therefore, in the past 10 years, the average housing prices across the country have risen by more than doubled, and the price of essences has risen by 2 or three times.

What's more noteworthy is that real estate thermal distortion has distorted the development of mainland financial development, that is, the rapid value -added of real estate has attracted a lot of credit capital investment; credit support has promoted the rise in real estate prices and turned back to attract more credit investment.In this way, the real estate market has become a powerful engine of mainland credit expansion, which has created an amazing amount of currency supply.

At the end of 2008, the extensive currency supply (M2) of the mainland (M2) was only 47 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below), and by the end of August this year, it has expanded to a huge of 178 trillion yuan.The main promoter behind it is real estate credit; but the real estate market is also the hero of mainland economic growth in the past 10 years.

In contrast, the mainland's stock market has performed much. In the past 10 years, the stock price index has been plain except for the surge in 2015.This also reflects that the mainland's physical business is insufficient, and it is yet to be strengthened.

Under this structure, the current "endurance" of the mainland's economy has doubts.Because the real estate market is already overwhelming, the room for subsequent hype is small; and the real economy is about to transform and upgrade, and it has encountered the Sino -US trade war.Therefore, some negative changes in the economic data of mainland China in the near future should be highly concerned.

For example, the annual growth rate of industrial production increase rates reached 6.7%in the first half of this year, while only 6%and 6.1%each each in July and August. It seems a bit cool.In the next step, if the Sino -US trade war is more intense, and a large number of Chinese and foreign manufacturers are removed from the mainland, the industrial output value of the mainland will not decline.What's more, the sluggish growth rate of fixed assets in mainland China in the near future is not conducive to subsequent industrial development.

The pressure of industrial production will theoretically reduce the supply of goods and raise prices.In fact, the recent CPI (Consumption Price Index) in mainland China has indeed been stupid, that is, the first half of this year has risen by 2%, and 2.1%and 2.3%respectively increased in July and August.The surge in currency supply is pushing prices.

In order to say, although the current economic performance of the mainland has not reached the degree of stagnation of "output decline and high price coexistence", it has exposed so much;Stagnation.

Among them, smooth prices to avoid rising interest rates are very important.Otherwise, once the mainland goes into the loop of interest rate hikes, it is likely to cause the real estate bubble to break, which will cause the "Chinese version of the financial storm" and make the international financial system chaos. After all, the scale of the mainland's economy has been pivotal worldwide and cannot be disorderly.

To this end, while the mainland currently responds to the Sino -US trade war, it is also necessary to accurately allocate credit funds to effectively expand domestic industrial investment and ensure supply; and accelerate the optimization of social wealth distribution and promote the continuous expansion of middle class groups.This can reach the balance of total supply and overall demand, which is the only way for the mainland's economy to avoid evil.