Author: Sun Xingjie

South Korean President Wen Zaiyin started his first trip to Pyongyang during his tenure. This is also 11 years later that South Korean President visited Pyongyang again.There is no doubt that Wen Zaiyin was treated with exceptions. Kim Jong -un and his wife greeted them at the airport and held a grand welcome ceremony.From the screen, you can see the intimate relationship between the two leaders. It can be said that the atmosphere of North Korea and South Korea has returned 11 years ago.However, after all, North Korea and South Korea are two countries, and national security and national interests are still the core of bilateral relations.

If you only stay in the ethnic righteousness and national emotions, the third meeting of the "Golden Council" only repeats the story of yesterday.Only after solving the security and development interests of both parties can North -South relations be reconstructed under the new framework, and can achieve the irreversible peninsula peace pursued by President Moon Jae -in.

Emotional Emotion

National emotions are the bonds between North Korea and South Korea, and it is also the starting point of this round of bilateral relations.Since Kim Jong -un's new year's congratulatory discussion, South Korea responded quickly, achieving a big turn of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics.Not only did North Korea use the same language and have a common history, but Wen Zaiyin's hometown was in North Korea. It was his wish to take his mother to his hometown.National emotions are bonds that both sides can understand and accept, and it is easy to resonate.

The nation is placed above the country, or at least comparable.Under such cognition, North Korea and South Korea can enter the "Sunshine Age".From Kim Dazhong to Roh Moo -hyun, to Wen Zaiyin, none of them regarded North Korea as a security threat to South Korea, but brothers who had been separated for a long time.The "Banmen Store Declaration" is generally the same idea. The pursuit of national unity and peace in the peninsula is the consensus that both sides can accept.It can be said that the contact between North Korea and South Korea is still very effective on the soft issues that do not involve the national security level.

After the first summit, multiple rounds of contact between North Korea and South Korea have also achieved certain results.Democratic family members have been achieved between North Korea and South Korea. Although it may not produce substantive diplomatic effects, it is the project of the people.In addition, the two sides are also trying to reduce the level of militaryization of the border.Before the leaders' meeting, the North Korea and South Korea set up a joint contact office in Kaicheng, becoming a permanent institution for both parties.

This move is also considered to be a preparation for North Korea and South Korea to establish diplomatic relations.It can be seen that since the beginning of this year, North Korea -South Korea relations have improved greatly. The risk of war is decreasing, and the peaceful atmosphere of the two sides has reached the high point in recent years.At the same time, it is also necessary to see that the role of national emotions can also reach a peak. Further development of North Korea and South Korea's relations cannot be limited to national emotions, but work hard towards the normalization of bilateral relations.

The problem of no nuclearization on the peninsula is basically no right to speak

The third meeting of "Wenjin Club" has not been as sensational as the first time the Banmen store meeting.The outside world is concerned whether this meeting can make a breakthrough on the core issue, that is, no nuclearization of the peninsula.Is it a problem between North Korea and South Korea without nuclearization?The first two meetings, including the "Banmen Store Declaration", are unknown.

What North Korea wants is a nuclear non -nuclearization; what North Korea can give in is that it does not use nuclear weapons for South Korea.When the leaders of the United States and North Korea did not meet, Wen Zaiyin played the role of a rumor to a certain extent; but after the US -DPRK leaders met and reached the basic consensus of non -nuclearization and replacement security, South Korea's status changed.It is impossible to break through the Korean diplomatic difficulties by relying on intermediaries or biography on both sides.

As far as Wen Zaiyin himself is concerned, he has high hopes for improving North Korea relations. One is to hope to establish a key position in South Korea's diplomatic system in Northeast Asia, and the other is to find a new breakthrough in South Korea's economic development through North Korea and South Korea.

Whether South Korea's diplomacy is in the orbit of the United States is a key issue.If South Korea adheres to the U.S. -South Korea alliance first, the premise of breakthroughs in DPRK is that there is a fundamental change in US -DPRK relations.Although the Wen Zaiyin government attaches great importance to the relationship between North Korea, he also saw that South Korea had no right to speak on the Peninsula's non -denuclearization.

In 3 months earlier, the communication between the United States and North Korea was not smooth. On the issue of how to complete this transaction, the two sides were huge.After US Secretary of State Pompeo visited Pyongyang for the third time, the differences between the two sides were almost difficult to meet.

North Korea's path is "MDASH; MDASH; Peace Agreement mdash; mdash; mdash; mdash; no nuclearization"; the United States requires practical nuclearization, at least frozen to have the next return.After the transaction was achieved between the United States and North Korea, Wen Zaiyin's goal could be achieved.

It is difficult to achieve major breakthroughs at this meeting

Wen Zaiyin's time to visit Pyongyang is also delicate.From the perspective of both sides, the national emotion should be heated up to achieve a breakthrough in Wen Zaiyin's visit to the DPRK.However, from the diplomatic structure in South Korea, it is difficult to achieve major breakthroughs at this meeting.First, the United States has doubts about the development of North Korea and South Korea, especially the possible economic cooperation between the two parties.

President Wen Zaiyin led the heads of South Korean consortia to visit the DPRK, not only to meet, but also to seek opportunities for economic cooperation.It is impossible to end sanctions before North Korea abandoned nuclear actions.Some media disclosed that the United States coalition alliances are preparing to impose more severe sanctions on North Korea, and South Korea will not help but join it.The second is that the establishment of a joint contact office between the north and the south has also made the United States unhappy.It can be foreseeable that the establishment of diplomatic relations between North Korea and South Korea cannot be earlier than the United States and North Korea, which is also determined by the basic situation of US -South Korea relations.

Under the framework of the United States, North Korea, and South Korea, South Korea's autonomous space is very small, and the role that can play is also very limited.Unless South Korea implements a more independent foreign policy under a larger framework, this time the "Golden Gold" can only be thunderous and heavy.If it is not appropriately decoupled with the United States, South Korea can only belong to the US strategy against DPRK.

U.S. Senator Graham disclosed to the media before Wen Zaiyin's visit to the media that President Trump seriously discussed the issue of the evacuation of the family members of the US military in South Korea. This move was also regarded as a prelude to action on the Peninsula.Obviously, the US -DPRK relations and US -South Korea relations are far less lively and warm as the leaders of North Korea and South Korea meet.

The author is the Deputy Dean of the School of Public Diplomacy of Jilin University