After Trump and Kim Jong -un's Singapore Summit, the progress of negotiations between the United States and North Korea did not go well.At present, North Korea mainly adheres to the issue of the war of war, and the United States is quite concerned about the North Korean nuclear list.This article mainly emphasizes the key issue of the North Korean Nuclear inspection.To discuss this issue, review history is not good.
In 1991, China and North Korea exchanged opinions on the North and South North and South to join the United Nations issue at the same time.When the Chinese Foreign Minister Qian Qichen visited North Korea at the time, North Korea's highest leader, Kim Il Sung, talked about this.According to Qian Qichen's record in "Ten Diplomacy" (Beijing: World Knowledge Publishing House 2003 edition), Jin Richeng said that it is necessaryAsk the nuclear verification issues and exercise the veto power. In that case, the situation of North Korea is even more difficult. Anandrdquo; (see p. 154)
Assuming the United States insisted on associating nuclear verification with North Korea to join the United Nations, will North Korea make concessions?The answer is the negative Andmdash; Andmdash; North Korea would rather not join the United Nations for the time being, nor will it agree to check in North Korea in the United States or other aspects.
In this case, it requires China to join South Korea to join the United Nations to exercise its veto power.On the one hand, North Korea is unwilling to make concessions on the issue of nuclear verification for joining the United Nations, and on the other hand, they oppose South Korea to join the United Nations separately.Its strategy is to associate the north and south of the peninsula to the United Nations issue, and Andrdquo; and discussed the application of the North and South parties."
In 1991, Kim Il Sung would not agree to accept verification.27 years later, will his grandson Kim Jong -un (the third generation of the highest leader) agreed to check the United States or other aspects to verify North Korea?It is still difficult to make a positive answer to this question.
In April 27 this year, the "Banmen Store Declaration" signed by South Korean President Moon Jae -in and Kim Jong -un only mentioned the compliment and no verification and verification issues.On June 12, the joint bulletin signed by US President Trump and Kim Jong -un in Singapore also mentioned the content of confirming the "Banmen Store Declaration".There are no verification and verification issues here.Trump has not achieved important progress in Wen Zaiyin's failure to obtain specific results, which is related to North Korea's persistence.
On May 24 of this year, North Korea bombed the Nuclear Nuclear Test Field of Xianjing North Road, Jizhou County. At that time, only reporters from the five countries of China, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, and South Korea interviewed and reported that no foreign experts arrived at the scene.In late July, North Korea began to dismantle the West Sea Satellite Satellite Lairer located in Dongcangli, Tieshan County, Ping'an (recently interrupted). The foreign journalists or experts have not been invited to the scene.These may not be able to allow North Korea to be allowed (not to mention carefully cooperating) in the future, and other aspects of the United States or other aspects to verify and verify the nuclear abandonment of North Korea.
Recently, US and South Korean media reports that US Secretary of State Pompeo will have the fourth trip to North Korea (but Trump has announced the cancellation of Pompeo's visit to the DPRK).If the trip is finally realized, it may make important progress in the negotiations of the North Korea (it may also mean that the Sino -US trade dispute is eased to a certain extent).At present, the important issues of negotiations between the two sides include the Declaration of the Final War and the Nuclear list.
The possibility of reaching a transaction on related issues should not exclude Andmdash; andMDASH; especially if the United States does not insist on asking other important Andrdquo; such as the verification check).For the United States, it can indeed be regarded as an important gain. However, the bigger difficulty is actually verification and verification issues. The possibility of progress in the United States and North Korea in this regard is less likely. This is a keyQuestion.
In 1991, North Korea could join the United Nations without having to make concessions on verification verification. One of the main reasons was that it had China to prevent South Korea from joining the United Nations.North Korea's relations are quite close). Now North Korea lacks other important and important Andrdquo; to compete for the United States and its allies (China cannot support North Korea unconditionally on the North Korean nuclear issue), in fact it is in a passive situation.How to evolve in the Nuclear Nuclear issue, the international community can continue to observe.
(The author is a doctorate in history, scholar travel to Canada)
