Zheng Yongnian: The future of the trade war and international order

What kind of Sino -US relations are being guided by Sino -U.S.China and the United States are the world's first and second largest economies. The relationship between the two countries basically determines the big pattern of the future international order.How will the relationship between the two countries develop?Obviously, this depends not only on the United States, but also on China's response.There are many possibilities for future changes, but the following four future scenes can be predicted.

First, no matter, return to normal.Now China and the United States Andrdquo; but both sides design or respond to the trade war from their own advantages and the disadvantages of the other party.It is just a winner or loser in a relatively sense. That is to say, in this trade war, both China and the United States will inevitably lose each other. Although neither the two parties know how to end today, there may be one day that the two parties have ended in unwavering war and ended.. This kind of scene is not impossible, there are several factors.

The first is Trump's two sides.In terms of personality, Trump has a good personality, and this personality prompts him to adventure and speculate from time to time.But at the same time, Trump also has the rationality as a businessman, calculates the development of things rationally, and measures gains and losses.Therefore, once the trade war has caused huge losses to American companies and the public, Trump will also Andrdquo's policy change policy. Secondly, the power of US capital.

Although US capital is now supporting Trump, the interests of capital and administrative authorities are very inconsistent.If Trump's goal is to prevent China from being able to challenge China, the goal of capital is to be more open for China.There is no reason to promote China's closure of capital in the United States, let alone want to give up a huge Chinese market.

Obviously, China's closedness does not meet the interests of capital.As Marx said, the nature of capital is expansion, and without expansion is death.Today, the capital of the United States is to use national forces to apply huge external pressure on China to force the Chinese market to be more open.Once again, it is China's open attitude.Although China does not Andrdquo; but China's behavior is only a response to the United States in this trade war.

China itself does not want to fight a trade war.In fact, when the United States wants to amend and even abandon the existing international trade system, China has become the most powerful defender of this system.More importantly, the Chinese government has repeatedly stated that China will become more open and promote the globalization process in a more open way.A series of open policy measures announced by the Chinese government recently showed this general trend.

Second, the correction and reconstruction of the system.In this case, Trump's trade war intentionally or unintentionally guided the emergence of a new system, the so -called "fair free trade system andrdquo; .. Trump's Andrdquo;A new trading system.Although Andrdquo; at this stage, it is manifested as trade protectionism and economic nationalism at this stage.

Trump believes that the existing system has led to other countries' "unfair Andrdquo; trade that needs to be amended or rebuilt., Innovation and US dollars, etc.), provided conditions for Trump to amend and rebuild the trade system.

The United States has begun to re -trade negotiations with the European Union to achieve the zero tariff system.Japan and the European Union have reached a free trade system.At the same time, the United States and Japan will also conduct similar negotiations.Although Japan and Europe are dissatisfied with Trump's approach, no country dares to stand out to oppose Trump publicly; on the contrary, these countries are pursuing naked realism. They are aware of being unable to leave the US economy and develop this.On the basis of a reality, negotiate with the United States.This realistic method of the European Union and Japan is undoubtedly conducive to Trump's efforts to amend and rebuild the system.

China and the United States have a certain degree of trade dependence

Today, on the issue of China, Western Capital actively cooperates with the power of the country, because this is conducive to the benefits of capital.Here, the analysis of Marxism, especially Lenin's analysis, is still effective, that is, when the capital itself cannot overcome the capital expansion of Andrdquo;, Western Capital will rely on the power of the government to win again globally.

As far as capital itself is concerned, the process of system reconstruction is also the process of procedure and expansion.Without nationality and no boundaries, it will expand to all corners of the world.It is natural that capital will never give up the huge Chinese market.The goal of capital is not isolated China, but to force China to be more open.It can be said that once the new system is in place, capital will launch a new round of offensive against China.Of course, as far as China is concerned, it is necessary to try to change its new world system that is dominated by the United States.

Third, the formation of two related systems centered on the two relatively independent markets of China and the United States.The premise of this scene is that due to the many years of trade war between China and the United States, the trade dependence of the two countries has decreased, but the situation of "decoupled andrdquo; in the situation of" decoupled andRDQUO; that is, there is still a trade relationship between China and the United States, which has certainThe trade dependence, but the two have been separated. China will form its own market system, and the United States is still a powerful system that forms its own geopolitical circle.

Some countries are in the US market, and some countries depend on the Chinese market, and more countries may maintain economic and trade relations with both sides of China and the United States.

Two relatively independent but related economic systems are likely to form.The United States will still be the world's largest economy in a long history.The economic advantage of the United States is the huge market, the leading technology, the innovative mechanism of high capabilities, irreplaceable US dollars, and so on.In all these areas, it is difficult for other countries to surpass the United States, at least in a short period of time.These are also the inherent elements of the existing -level world economic system, that is, it is these elements that guarantee the top of the United States at the top of the world economic system and maintain its hegemony.

The political and military advantages of the United States are for the United States' economic hegemony Andrdquo; the United States often uses political or even military forces to punish those countries that violate or challenge the United States, especially weak countries. In fact, the United StatesEconomic sanctions on other countries have exceeded the category of economic, but to achieve political goals with economic means naked. Even the current trade war with China is no longer a simple economic trade war. On the other hand, the trade war between the United States and China will inevitably affect China's international environment and internal development, and it will slow down China's development.If China responds properly, it may also promote China to fall into Andrdquo; but if China does not make major mistakes and continues to open to the outside world, it will be difficult for American behavior to prevent the development of China and continue to go up in the development chain.Upgrade. After the development of the past 40 years, China is already the world's second largest economy and the largest trading country.

Despite the lack of technology and US dollar advantages like the United States, the market already has certain advantages.The ratio of the total population in the middle class is still not large, but the absolute number of the middle class is not far from the United States.

Even in terms of technology, China was mainly imported and applied to Western technology in the early days, ignoring original technology, but China can receive profound lessons from this trade war and start again.In fact, many aspects of technological development in China have also accumulated a certain amount of accumulation. As long as the policy is valid, technological innovation capabilities are expected to greatly improve.That is to say, if China can achieve medium -speed economic development for a long time in the future, then China can evade Andrdquo;

If so, China will form a very considerable international market, thus forming a Chinese -centric economic circle.At the same time, as long as China adheres to the open policy, the economic and trade between China and the United States cannot be completely decoupled.In this way, the two markets of China and the United States will be relatively independent but related.

Fourth, China and the United States enter the Cold War.Sino -US trade war, you come and go, keep upgrading, trade dependenceMistakes, continuing to open to the outside world, it is difficult to prevent China's development from the development of the United States, and continue to improve the development chain.After the development of China in the past 40 years, China is already the world's second largest economy and the largest trading country.

Despite the lack of technology and US dollar advantages like the United States, the market already has certain advantages.The ratio of the total population in the middle class is still not large, but the absolute number of the middle class is not far from the United States.

Even in terms of technology, China was mainly imported and applied to Western technology in the early days, ignoring original technology, but China can receive profound lessons from this trade war and start again.In fact, many aspects of technological development in China have also accumulated a certain amount of accumulation. As long as the policy is valid, technological innovation capabilities are expected to greatly improve.That is to say, if China can achieve medium -speed economic development for a long time in the future, then China can evade Andrdquo;

If so, China will form a very considerable international market, thus forming a Chinese -centric economic circle.At the same time, as long as China adheres to the open policy, the economic and trade between China and the United States cannot be completely decoupled.In this way, the two markets of China and the United States will be relatively independent but related.

Fourth, China and the United States enter the Cold War.The trade war between China and the United States is coming to me, constantly upgrading, trade dependence has decreased rapidly, and eventually decoupled, so it goes to the Cold War.Sino -US relations with trade dependence and Sino -US relations with no trade dependence have different properties.

Once the trade is decoupled, the US hardliners or cold warfares can treat China like the former Soviet Union.The United States and many countries have conducted trade wars, including Germany and Japan, but because Germany and Japan are allies in the United States. Although conflicts with the United States in trade issues, they are integrated into the United States system in terms of security. Therefore,The United States at best is to lay down these countries in the economy, instead of fighting them to death.But it is not the same as its Andrdquo; the nature of the enemy andrdquo;

China Foreign Policy for Nationalist Emotions

The power of the United States and the Cold War is very powerful, always existing, and emerging from time to time.The rise of the new conservativeism during the Bush period was targeted at China, but when the new conservativeism was aggressive to China, the terrorist incident in September 1st, and the United States had to shift its attention to counter -terrorism. In the process of counter -terrorism,China and the United States have found some common interests.

In the Obama era, this power became obvious. Many of its strategic adjustments were targeted at China, including "returning to Asia Andrdquo; and the cross -Pacific partnership relationship (TPP).An important part of the Pu government. Although Trump has firmly held the decision -making power so far, this force on the influence of Trump's decision -making cannot be underestimated. In the final analysis, this power wants to lead Sino -US relations to the Cold War state.

At the same time, China has a lot of factors in this regard.In recent years, China's internal populism and external nationalism have also increased.Although Chinese populism and nationalism cannot have a direct impact on policies as Western countries, they have constituted the policy environment of the Chinese government after all, and often put huge pressure on government's foreign policy.In general, China is still a relatively poor country. Nationalism or populist emotions can easily explode, but whether it produces huge political energy depends on the rationality of the leadership group.

Historically, if the leadership group is rational, it is not difficult to control; but if the leadership group loses rationality or even mobilizes these emotions, the situation will be completely different.In fact, the United States is the same.If the ruling group is rational enough, the strength of the hardliners or cold warfare will be restricted.In any case, the Cold War is not the product of capital, but the product of politics. The Cold War does not meet the interests of capital and only meets political interests.

Obviously, in the above four possible scenarios, in the first and second situations, the international order is still a system, and the third situation has evolved into two relatively independent systems, and in the fourth situationIt has become two independent systems, as if the two systems of the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II.In other words, the Sino -US trade war is not only related to the bilateral relations between China and the United States, but also the changes in the entire future world system.

Many aspects of the existing world system have indeed arisen major problems and need to be corrected and improved.At least for the United States, it can no longer meet the requirements of the maximum interests. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand to correct or even rebuild the world system.The question is what method is used.

No free lunch.The trade war launched by Trump will inevitably destroy or even shake the existing world trade system, which has produced great uncertainty; and Trump's unilateralist amendment and reconstruction of the world system will bring greater uncertaintysex.It is foreseeable that if the trade war continues, if the trade war derives other conflicts, the existing world system will become more vulnerable and even turbulent.

The author is the director of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore

The article only represents personal point of view