Li Donghai: Trumps real horror was in the second term

Li Donghai

The United States will hold a mid -term election in November this year. The Senate re -elected one -third and the House of Representatives was fully re -elected. Previously, Senator Alabama Senator from the Red State and Andrdquo, the 18th election of the 18th election of the "rust belt state Andrdquo; PennsylvaniaEnd with the victory of the Democratic Party.

Deep Red State is the Republican base camp and Andrdquo, "rust belt state Andrdquo; is the key to Trump's 2016 flip election.The trade war draws specific voters, if so, it is likely to continue to do trade.

In the case of American society and generally "hostile to the hostile andrdquo;, the trading war that is not available can be used as a conservative voter and" Doping ANDRDQUO; and at least before the election.

This mid -term election is the largest AND since World War II..

On the other hand, the continuous weakening of the establishment faction and the continuous rise of populist forces have also made the leadership of the Republican Party. In particular, the creation factions in the Trump camp are one by one.The White House and the Crimson Council are in a dilemma.

Interestingly, in the early days of the US president, the US president often used the confidant to choose from, and found that there was no way to control the state machines and replaced them with people and horses, and also released goodwill to the creators of Congress Mountain.Trump went against him. The representatives of the establishment faction repeatedly resigned from the government. Whether he was loyal to Trump became the first choice of employment, the polls did not seem to be affected by the employment storm.

Former Director of the Federal Investigation Bureau, Kommy compared Trump to Andrdquo, "New York's Boss Boss Andrdquo; Andrdquo; Andrdquo; the president is not ethical, regardless of the facts, and the value of the system.He led as if he was doing buying and selling, and he used himself to use himself, only to care about whether people were loyal to him.Andrdquo;

When the White House doctor Jackson was nominated as the Minister of Veterans, the outside world was uproar, loyal to Trump and praised Trump's health, and was regarded as one of the key reasons for Jackson to be selected.

Former President Carter and Nobel Prize winner Crugman's appointment of the national security affairs assistant Bolton and the White House chief economic adviser Cordlo, and "Trump has made the most wrong decision Andrdquo; CordloAndrdquo; Andrdquo; Andrdquo; Andrdquo;From the current trend, populization and loyalty will still be the key factor for Trump's people.

Take Bolton as an example. His famous saying is that "there is no United Nations at all, and occasionally the world can occasionally can be by the world's only power Andmdash; Andmdash; the leadership of the United States, provided that it is in line with the interests of the United States.Very good appetite of Trump.

Bolton has always advocated toughness in China. He has asked to re -evaluate the policy of China No. 1, requiring to increase the military sales of Taiwan and the garrison in Taiwan. By identifying Taiwan as Andrdquo;P>

Mainland China may have room for concessions in economic and trade issues. It is not possible to concessions on Taiwan. It is both the core interests of China and one of the three principles of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States.More serious.

Some British foreign affairs column writers said that, given the trade war facing the United States and China and the hostile in the East China Sea and the South China Naval affairs, the United States supports Taiwan may become the "red cloth Andrdquo;As a result, it will trigger Taiwan's discussion of "the next Crimea Andrdquo;.Of course, Crimea and Taiwan are essentially different. Although Crimea once belonged to Russia, it was part of Ukraine during the cold war.

In contrast, Taiwan belongs to China, but it is currently temporarily exercised the governance authority within Taiwan without being authorized by the central and all Chinese people.Chinese ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, clearly stated that "No one can stop China's unity. We seek peaceful unity. If this method does not work, we use other ways of Andrdquo;. In fact, in the planning plan of the Taiwan Taiwan policy, it is also in the planning plan of Taiwan's Taiwan policy.There is no possibility to completely exclude non -peaceful means.

Guo Zhengliang, a legislator of the Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party, believes that Trump, who has the pressure of election, is worse than the mainland that has not been elected for a long time.The US economic recovery is the Democratic Party's ticket warehouse, and the members of the Republican ticket warehouse will certainly be nervous.After imposing tariffs on Chinese products, the impact on the US consumer market is also unknown. Once products from other countries cannot quickly fill the vacancy of Chinese goods, it will cause people to complain. This is not a good thing for any political party facing the pressure of election.

In the context of Trump ’s large -scale taxation of China’ s transmission to the United States, it is difficult for China to seek the same scale counterattack because China does not import so many American products. Therefore, the possible alternative is to restrict the import of US service industry.The RMB exchange rate adjustment, of course, will face the pressure of the United States Union and Europe that China requires the relaxation of the threshold of the foreign market entry threshold, which will also cause its own industrial development to be damaged.

Of course, the United States has great doubts about Chinese capital. China can also achieve the purpose of restricting US business mergers and acquisitions. This will cause serious injuries to multinational companies. Based on the differences between the two countries, the possibility of lobbying Congress of the United States is also increasing.

The former Director -General of the World Trade Organization Pascar and Middot; Lami pointed out: And "and the real reason for the problem of American trade deficit is that Americans's high consumption and low savings rate Andrdquo;

This explanation is also regarded as one of the main arguments of "China should not carry the pot andrdquo; in fact, in fact, the conflict of Trump's first term is just a former dish.He does not need to consider the pressure of re -election, nor does it need to consider the 2022 midterm election and the 2024 presidential election.

For Trump, the Republican Party is only a tool for obtaining power. It has nothing to do with him. Unless it is the use of power, Trump does not need to consider successors.Trump is just a Republican passenger, but he will have the power and damage that lacks checks and balance in the second term. This is probably the nightmare of different passers -by.

The author is the current affairs commentator in mainland China

For Trump, the Republican Party is only a tool for obtaining power. It has nothing to do with Trump well. Unless it is the use of power, Trump does not need to consider successors.Trump is just a Republican passenger, but he will have the power and damage that lacks checks and balance in the second term. This is probably the nightmare of different passers -by.