The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China recently held a meeting of the Politburo. The theme was AND "Analysis and Research on the current economic situation, deploying Andrdquo; in the current special and complex internal and external situations, the judgment and conclusions made by the ruling authorities of China of ChinaSex.
There are two most watched one. One is the overall judgment of economic and political judgment. "Andrdquo; second is to emphasize and emphasize" six stable Andrdquo;, Stabilize foreign capital, stabilize expectations.These two messages are obviously related to a series of policies adopted by the Trump administration recently.
After sorting and summarizing, in addition to the fact that the TPP believes that the TPP is more disadvantaged in the United States, the Obama's "return to the Asia -Pacific Andrdquo; and Andrdquo;There are too much changes, but instead have intensified. So far, the United States has launched in the United States: trade war, scientific and technological warfare, investment war;Asia -Pacific's Andrdquo;
At the same time, it also withdrawn from the Iranian nuclear agreement to strengthen the sanctions against Iran and improve the relationship with Russia in diplomatic. The latter two are directly indirectly related to the internationalization of the RMB, because Russia and Iran's two major oil -producing countries have shortly.Before accepting China to buy oil with RMB.
Generally speaking, the Trump administration has been recruited and the recruitment is sharp. This is exactly the Andrdquo; "stable and changing Andrdquo; and therefore emphasized that Andrdquo;background.How to interpret the intention and motivation of the Trump authorities?
In the final analysis, it is the so -called Andrdquo; that is, the contradiction between the boss and the second child.
Looking back, the United States guards China and regards China as a potential opponent. The Bushi government, which came to power in 2001, has risen rapidly from the 15th place in 1978 to the world.The sixth place in 2000, not long after Obama's onto, China GDP surpassed Japan's second largest in the world in 2010. Since then, both China and the United States have both fallen into Andrdquo;The increasingly acute elderly contradiction appeared, which also fully explained why Obama ruling in power shortly after the Great strategy of "returning to the Asia -Pacific Andrdquo; Great Strategy.
Although returning to the Asia -Pacific strategy, from the three aspects of Economic (TPP), politics (building a geopolitical circle around China) and military (60%of the deployment of the United States global military power in the Western Pacific, especially the first island chain), it has continuously strengthened to China.Press.
However, it is obvious that it has not effectively curbed China's continuous rise and rapid rise. Regardless of economic, technological, military power, or even international influence, the distance from the United States is still closer to the United States.To increasingly stress and anxiety, this is exactly the background of Trump's time "to make the United States stronger Andrdquo; the time of the United States again./p>
But can the trade war, investment war, and science and technology war really suppress China and alleviate the sharp contradictions between the elders and the elders?This must be understood from the perspectives of tactics and strategy.
From a strategic point of view, the boss must rule out the challenges and threats of the second child. The most thorough way is war, which is common in history (proposed that Andrdquo, "Xiu Xidde trap and Andrdquo; this concept, Harvard professor ALLISIN, statistics, statistics, statistics, statistics, statistics.Human beings have a history of nearly 500 years, and there are 16 contradictions in the second and secondary elders, of which 12 to 75%have erupted war).
However, the current situation, the United States should have estimates that this is not a strategy, and the risks and costs are large.But what about the secondary policy?This is to be observed from a tactical perspective.
The famous American think tank RAND issued a report last year: "Think of the hard to imagine the war." The report pointed out that in order to dispel or slow down the rise of China, in addition to the war means, the United States can take the United States that can be adopted by the United States.It is to balance China with all means. The purpose is to induce various tensions and contradictions within China, such as financial risks, housing bubbles, social contradictions, etc., which ultimately leads to a political crisis.
The report also pointed out that the United States can also consider creating some local and regional military conflicts without triggering the full war.Challenges and threats of US hegemony.
If the above analysis is established, how to fight the trade battle, what is the point of fighting, and how the losses of all parties have impacted. I am afraid that it is still a trivial matter.There are changes in Andrdquo; the business world should be cautious.
