When the Sino -US trade war is difficult to distinguish, the New York Times quoted sources in the report that behind the gunbolt and sword, the two potential ways seemed to be in front of China, and the two sides could fight a tie or stop the war through negotiations.
The New York Times Chinese website quoted people participating in the negotiations that the two potential ways seemed to be in front of China.Both options will bring a trade victory for US President Trump and a gentle White House consultant, and at the same time allow China to continue to promote the world's leading national enterprise industrial plan in the field of cutting -edge technology.
It is reported that playing a flat hand seems to be the most likely, which will allow new tariffs in the United States and China for several months, or even years.In this case, multinational companies were forced to rethink their supply chain and began to transfer the supply chain out of China.
Over time, this change may reduce the United States' trade deficit with China and alleviate US concerns in national security.After all, trade deficit and national security are the main roots of Trump's dissatisfaction with China.
In addition, negotiations are also possible.It is reported that although the positions of the two sides are far apart, Beijing has subtly reported the intention of steering reconciliation, and is willing to discuss changing strategic plans, that is, the "Made in China 2025Andrdquo;
However, Beijing's position is that even in order to resolve trade disputes and tensions, it may adjust the "Made in China 2025Andrdquo;, but it must not prevent China's development of the economy. This is the" red line Andrdquo;
The latest trade figures show that under the trade war, China's exports continue to rise, which gives Beijing great confidence.
Former Chinese Ministry of Commerce officials, currently Andrdquo; Deputy Director and Senior Researcher He Weiwen, "China and Global and Global Think Tank Andrdquo; Deputy Director and Senior Researcher. This red line is to ensure China's development rights, not the specific industrial policy and measures of" Made in China 2025Andrdquo; Made in China.
The report quoted the co -founder of the Beijing Consulting Company, Andrew Polk, the co -founder of Trivium, said that "and" for the time, the trade war may continue for a period of time, and the economies of the two countries can cope with it for a while, notAs for too much influence Andrdquo;.
After the United States launched the first wave of tariffs on US $ 34 billion in imports of imported products on Mainland China on July 6, recently announced the second wave of US $ 16 billion on the August 7 sanctions list, including 279 products, expected to be expected.Starting from August 23.Mainland China responded on the same night, saying that it would also fight back its US $ 16 billion equivalent products.In total two waves of sanctions, the current China and the United States will have a 25%tariff of $ 50 billion in goods.
The Sino -US trade war has gradually become fierce since this year. During this year, the conversion of mainland China's foreign attitude is worthy of fun.From the beginning of April, it is still emphasized that it will respond to the United States with Andrdquo; in June and July, the mainland official attitude will be low -key in June and July.Too exaggerated, and began to dilute and "made 2025Andrdquo; policy color, and also restrained the official media to restrain the related comments on the US trade war to avoid further intensifying the opposite situation.
Observing the conversion of mainland China's foreign attitude should be matched with its recent overall economy performance.Since the first half of 2018, the economic growth in the mainland has slowed down economic growth, the continuous decrease in trade surplus, the annual growth rate of consumer retail, the decline in the growth rate of fixed asset investment, and the decline in the stock market's decline.In addition, it is worth noting that the cliff -like decline, including social financing, has begun to decline significantly since March this year, the growth rate of social financing in mainland China has begun to decline significantly.Risk rises.Secondly, the P2P (network lending) platform has a large -scale closure. On the one hand, this phenomenon reflects the overall decline of the mainland's economy, and on the other hand, it also shows that deleveraging in the financial field has been tight as market liquidity.
In other words, observing the overall economic indicators of the mainland in the first half of the year seems to reflect the weakness of its economic growth.Originally, the economic and trade constitution of the mainland has entered a critical period of structural adjustment, and the internal contradictions are full of challenges. At this moment, external factors such as the United States and other external factors have forced the mainland to temporarily slowly adjust the speed of internal adjustment.
Turning back to the Sino -US trade war level, it seems that all the goal rights have fallen on the end of the United States so far. From the content of the $ 50 billion sanctions list that has been announced, the first wave of US sanctions on China has fallen mainly on aerospace, and it mainly falls on aerospace, and it mainly falls on aerospace.The second wave of products such as asset communication, automotive components and machinery, the second wave is locked benefited from And "Made in China 2025Andrdquo; related products, including plasticized, steel, electronics, machinery and semiconductor projects.
In the second list, semiconductor products are the most concerned.However, in terms of the global supply chain of the semiconductor industry, the mainland itself is the main importer of the IC stagnation circuit.According to the statistics of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, the import volume of the mainland accumulated circuit in 2017 exceeded 260 billion U.S. dollars, which has replaced crude oil to become the largest imported goods in the mainland, and its imports accounted for more than 30 % of the world's.In contrast, the United States is mostly IC design and is located in the upper reaches of the supply chain. Its imports account for about 6%of the global proportion.
To interpret the US strategy from such a supply chain type, or you can get a clearer context.That is to say, the United States adopts sanctions in China, which may not directly target Chinese export products, but intended to force countries to move out of the land production base, and then gradually disintegrate China as a world factory as a world factory.; Development goals.
From the perspective of the impact of the US -China trade war, the wrestling warfare of the global industrial supply chain layout is the key.
(The author is the Deputy Director of the Institute of Mainland China)
Wu Jiaxun: The United States intends to disintegrate the world factory
