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On July 25, Trump and Joncker issued a joint statement that it would be committed to achieving the "zero tariffs, zero barriers, zero subsidies and subsidies and subsidies between the United States and Europe to jointly promote the reform of the WTO.Mao Mimin Chong announced that the first round of trade negotiations in the United States and Japan will start on August 9. The author has previously written that Trump has launched a trade war in an all -round way to force trading partners to return to the negotiating table.
At present, this inference is established.Europe and Japan met with the pressure of the United States. At the beginning, Trump set up the issues set with the United States and the United States.Andrdquo; Andrdquo;.
However, from media reports and comments, many observers have doubts about the prospects of trade negotiations in the United States, Europe, the United States and Japan.The author believes that according to the interests of all parties in the game, unless there is no major changes in the unexpected changes, for example, Trump is impeached into the field, otherwise the relevant negotiations will have a high probability that it will be completed by 2020.Reconstruction.
The trade war is a trusted threat to the United States for trading partners.
For the prospect of the trade war, many people believe that Trump is just having a futuristic price for the negotiation.In their opinion, the post -war international political and economic order was first -led by the United States, and the maintenance of existing international order conforms to the core interests of the United States.Moreover, experience in the 1920s and 1930s showed that there would be no winners in the trade war, and the global enemy's economy would eventually be hit hard.
At the same time, with the special status of the United States in the international political and economic order, the trade deficit is inevitable. Even if the trade war is started, it is impossible to make the United States a re -into -state country.
Therefore, they asserted that Trump will eventually return to rationality under pressure, abandon strong confrontation with trading partners, and seek cooperation solutions under the existing framework.Such ideas are greatly misleading.
First of all, Trump defines US interests more from realism.In the past, the President of the United States was mostly lawyers or soldiers. Their thinking was accustomed to starting from justice and fairness, focusing on the U -moral image of the United States.Trump is a businessman president who is accustomed to analyzing and solving problems with economic logic, and pays more attention to the actual economic interests of the United States.
For him, if you can force trading partners to return to the negotiating table and negotiate the issues he formulated, it is acceptable even if the current international political and economic order collapse.From the perspective of the new US security strategy, maintaining existing international order is no longer the core interests of the United States.
Secondly, Trump does not think that the current launch of a trade battle has seriously damaged the US economy.In his opinion, the current situation is completely different from the 1923 and 30s of the last century. In the past, experience and lessons could not explain the current problems.In the United States in the United States in the last century, the production capacity was surplus, and the tariff war would affect the exports of American companies, so it was not worth it.Nowadays, domestic production is insufficient, and there is a US $ 800 billion in trade deficit to the outside world. The reduction in exports caused by the trade war can be remedied by reducing imports. Increasing domestic demand can drive domestic production to increase, and debt issues will also ease due to the reduction of the deficit.
Third, Trump believes that huge deficit can help the United States invincible in the trade war.In his eyes, even if the trade war cannot solve the problem of foreign trade deficit, the United States can still decide where the deficit comes from and which countries can enter the ranks of high -growth countries.After all, from a historical point of view, countries that have grown rapidly after World War II have almost benefited from the long -term sustainable beauty surplus.In order to compete for the US market share, other trading partners cannot cooperate to challenge the United States, and the United States can win all Andrdquo;
From the perspective of American public opinion, Trump's above views are not only accepted by more and more ordinary Americans, but also becoming the mainstream view of American political and economic elites.Although the mainstream economy community is still criticizing the overall, it has also begun to gradually adjust their views, and more and more understanding Trump's policy orientation is increasingly understanding.To some extent, even the market seems more confident in winning the US trade war.As of July 31 this year, the S & P 500 index rose by about 5.3%, while both Germany and the Japanese stock market fell by about 1 percentage points.
The trade war is a leverage for the United States to leverage the order of international trade
Although Trump always wields tariffs and "Big stick Andrdquo; but tariffs are not the core content he is concerned about, and he will not be satisfied with the tariff rate. In fact, although there are trading partners tariffs on some US goods tariffs on some American goods,The phenomenon of high tax rates, but the average tariff rate between the United States and the major trading partners is not much different, not the main factor that causes the huge trade deficit in the United States.
In 2017, the average US tariff rate was 1.6%.As for the other two main surplus countries, the average tariff rate of Japan is 1.3%, Germany is 1.1%, and even lower than the United States.Obviously, if other conditions remain unchanged, even if the tariff rate of trade partners is completely equal, the US trade revenue and expenditure will not significantly improve.
Holding the tariff problem is not to let it go, it is Trump's measures to conspire.Regardless of the fact that he was not much different from the average tax rate of trading partners, he deliberately enlarged the problem of high tax rates for most American products. The primary purpose was to attract the attention of the people and win the support of the United States.At present, he has basically achieved the goal, and his personal support rate has risen steadily.The latest survey data shows that Trump's Republican internal support rate is the second place in history, second only to President Bush's support rate after the 911 incident.
Trump talked about tariffs. The bigger plot was to quickly reduce the US foreign trade deficit and eradicate the root cause of the deficit.Trump has always believed that the WTO rules are unfair to the United States and seriously damage the competitiveness of US companies. As a result, the United States has a long -term large -scale deficit, which is not sustainable and must be changed, otherwise they must accept the fate of marginalization.
However, although other members of the WTO have many dissatisfaction with the current rules, they have no intention of promoting any reforms that are conducive to the United States.Not only that, the revision of the core terms of the WTO follows "unanimous consent, one country and one vote of Andrdquo; the rules of one country, and all members need to be explicitly expressed that acceptance can take effect. This means that the United States can only seek solutions outside the WTO.
Frozen judges selected paralyzed WTO appealing agencies, comprehensively levied steel and aluminum tariffs in the name of national security, and levied a 25%tariff from China $ 50 billion in goods, which was the robbery of Trump to disrupt the chess game.If other members ignore it, the United States will continue to expand the scope of tariffs in the name of national security to increase the price.If a member party mobilize tariff revenge, the United States will take the opportunity to set off a trade war and marginalize the WTO mechanism.
Trump believes that under the continuous increase of extreme pressure, other members will not be able to bear the consequences of retaliation against the United States and have to return to the negotiating table to discuss the issues set by the United States.Judging from the European Union and Japan's reactions, Trump's strategy for war talks has begun to work.
The US -Europe negotiations are not easy, but it will not be delayed for a long time
Many observers have skepticism for the prospects of "zero tariffs, zero subsidies, zero subsidies, zero -barriers and zero barriers and zero barriers.; Some are not the main demands of the United States and Europe. The establishment of the WTO reform alliance is a priority.
Some people also proposed that the United States and Europe are in agriculture and subsidiesAndrdquo; and the rules of "unanimous consent, one country and one vote of one country, all members need to be explicitly expressed that acceptance can take effect. This means that the United States can only seek solutions outside the WTO.
Frozen judges selected paralyzed WTO appealing agencies, comprehensively levied steel and aluminum tariffs in the name of national security, and levied a 25%tariff from China $ 50 billion in goods, which was the robbery of Trump to disrupt the chess game.If other members ignore it, the United States will continue to expand the scope of tariffs in the name of national security to increase the price.If a member party mobilize tariff revenge, the United States will take the opportunity to set off a trade war and marginalize the WTO mechanism.
Trump believes that under the continuous increase of extreme pressure, other members will not be able to bear the consequences of retaliation against the United States and have to return to the negotiating table to discuss the issues set by the United States.Judging from the European Union and Japan's reactions, Trump's strategy for war talks has begun to work.
The US -Europe negotiations are not easy, but it will not be delayed for a long time
Many observers have skepticism for the prospects of "zero tariffs, zero subsidies, zero subsidies, zero -barriers and zero barriers and zero barriers.; Some are not the main demands of the United States and Europe. The establishment of the WTO reform alliance is a priority.
It is also proposed that the United States and Europe have a huge difference in agriculture and subsidies. After Trump came to power, the United States and Europe have increased, and the European Union has difficulty in internal coordination. AndRDQUO; consensus looks beautiful.Talking about 5-10 years will not have results.
The author believes that these views are biased. The focus of the US -Europe negotiations is exactly Andrdquo; free trade agreement instead of WTO reform, and the negotiations are likely to be completed during the first term of Trump.
First of all, the WTO reform that the United States expects is impossible.Border tax adjustment arrangements (BTA rules), developing countries terms, and Andrdquo; "unanimous consent, one country, one vote and one country, one country, one vote and one country, and the WTO rules that Trump has long been most concerned about and hopes to change./p>
However, the above three rules are the core principles of the WTO. The revision will constitute a substantial reconstruction of the WTO framework. It will touch the interests of all parties other than the United States, which will inevitably be resisted the most.Even if Europe is willing to support and cooperate, the WTO reform that the United States expects is impossible.
Trump agreed to jointly promote impossible reforms with the European Union. The purpose was to give the EU a step to occupy a moral high, adding chips for Andrdquo; negotiations.
Secondly, the United States and Europe reached Andrdquo; the free trade agreement is a more realistic choice. Europe and the United States have the same market economy system, and the level of economic and social development is roughly the same.The rules have maintained the competitive advantage of Europe to the United States. The attempts that the United States has promoted this rule reform over the past 50 years has been stranded due to strong opposition from European countries.
Earlier, Trump was not prepared to solve the BTA problem through the tedious US domestic tax reform, and thus eliminating the content related to cash flow tax in the final version of the "Tax Reform and Employment Act".
Recently, Trump is adjusting his strategy to prepare for the EU's disagreement to make concessions on the BTA rules.According to reports, the Trump administration is brewing the second round of tax reform, and the probability of introducing trading tax has become an important part of new tax reform.In this way, it can reduce the advantages of tax systems brought by the BTA rules through the adjustment of the US domestic tax system.As for the agricultural and subsidy issues that are often considered to be the difficulty of negotiations, as long as the desire to reach the agreement between the two parties is strong enough, it can be solved through interest exchange.
Third, the US -Europe negotiations will not last long.Because of the difficult precedent of TPP and TTIP negotiations, many people think that Andrdquo; negotiations will be even longer. This judgment obviously does not fully consider Trump's unique negotiation method.As soon as Trump came up, he set off a trade war and forced trading partners to negotiate immediately on its topic. It is conceivable that if Andrdquo; the progress of the negotiations is not expected, the United States and Europe may return to trade pairs at any time.
Under the extreme pressure, Europe, which is good at pushing to folding, will have to speed up the process. This is because for Europe, no matter what kind of agreement with the United States, it is better than a comprehensive trade war with the United States.As for the internal coordination of Europe, it will no longer exist under strong external pressure.Otherwise, Europe will split two parts that are willing to reach an agreement with the United States and unwilling to reach an agreement with the United States.
The latter situation will obviously help Trump to promote Andrdquo; negotiations. Considering the willingness of Trump to run for the next president, it can be expected that the United States and Europe may fully promote the "30 Andrdquo;Completed before the election.
Finally, the author believes that analyzing the behavior of the US government and Trump should start from the reality of the United States. It does not preset moral evaluation.EssenceNon -unable to get an objective understanding, not so correctly.
(Note: This article only represents the author's point of view)
