Zheng Yongnian: external risks of China in the new era

The external risk of China in the new period refers to Andrdquo; how to avoid the conflict between China and the United States and even the war. (Reuters)

The external risk of China in the new period of China refers to Andrdquo; how to avoid conflicts and even war between China and the United States. Simply put, it is simply, "Xiuciidide trap andrdquo;The relationship between the big power, whether it is the challenge of the emerging power, the challenge of the big power or the fear of the great country to fear the emerging powers, and eventually it may lead to the conflict and war between the two.

According to statistics from a research team of Harvard University, since 1500, the world has experienced 16 power transfer between the emerging power and the great power of the big country. As a result, the war has occurred 12 times, and only four times can be said to be a peaceful transfer.Whether China and the United States will be caught in Andrdquo; Over the years, it has become a hot issue in China and the United States and the world."

How to avoid conflicts and war between great powers is the most concerned issue since the opening of the opening.How can reform and opening up become possible?The most important external conditions are international peace.The international environment of peace provides conditions for China's internal reform and opening up, and China itself must also contribute to international peace.

This has almost become the highest principle of interaction between China and the outside world since the reform and opening up.From Deng Xiaoping to today, the principles of China's foreign policy have changed on the surface, but in essence have inherent consistency.

In the Deng Xiaoping era, Andrdquo; "Together, and as Andrdquo;, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao's era mentioned" peaceful rise andrdquo; the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese leader mentioned Andrdquo;Good external relationships, especially big countries.

However, with the recent trade war between the two major economies of China and the United States, people suddenly felt that Andrdquo.This trap. The question is why China has made so many efforts in this area, but Andrdquo; still appear?

Many people point the reason to China, and believe that China has changed the past that Deng Xiaoping and "tugging and obscure Andrdquo; strategy. Perhaps the subjective level policy is a reason, but the main factors are the changes in objective elements. This can be evolved from the evolution of the relationship between China and the world.Let's understand.

Simply put, the relationship between China and the Western -led world system in China has gone through three major stages.In the 1980s, China had just been reforming and opening up. Due to the shortage of capital, China implemented an AND "please come in andRDQUO; to open its own country. Welcome foreign capital to China.

In the 1990s, China implemented an "in line with Andrdquo; policy" in order to join the World Trade Organization. Andrdquo; AND "is to change China's own institutional system to comply with international rules.

It is not difficult to understand that in these two stages, China will not have serious conflicts with the outside world; not only that, whether it is "open Andrdquo; and" or "in line with Andrdquo;, China has been welcomed by the outside world.But now it is in the third stage, that is, Andrdquo;

Andrdquo; has begun at the beginning of this century, but the early scale is small, and it is difficult to have a substantial impact on the world in the world. After the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China began to systematically and "go out to Andrdquo; and became a national policy., Especially manifested in Andrdquo; initiative, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and BRICS Bank.

The combination of excess capital, excess production capacity and mature infrastructure construction technology, etc., constitute a huge Andrdquo;

In this process, from the Western perspective, China's attitude towards the foreign world has changed dramatically.The West believes that the relationship between China and the world system has been from the previous "learning Andrdquo; Andrdquo;" and Andrdquo; Andrdquo "to maintain Andrdquo; to Andrdquo; internally, whether it is official or civilian, Chinese foreign discourseIt is also increasingly nationalist. China began to act as the Western Andrdquo; teach the West and start exporting its own "mode Andrdquo; whether it is the economic development model or the political system model.

For the West, this turning point occurred in 2008. A large -scale financial crisis occurred in the West, and then most of the Western economies fell into weakness, and it was difficult to adjust its long -term structural adjustment.And And "vetoing each other's party system, which also makes it difficult for Western countries to have effective national policies to promote the economy out of crisis.

The expression of the trade war

Obviously, this contrast between China and the West has both subjective cognitive ingredients and changes in the objective environment.From this perspective, the trade war is not difficult to understand.It can even be said that the trade war is only a form of expression in China and the United States. If it is not a trade war, it will also be manifested through other forms.

The essence of the relationship between China and the United States is expressed through the trade war, which indicates that the essence of the trade war is not just economy, but the overall relationship between the two countries.What does the overall relationship between the two countries mean?

To put it simply, as a world hegemony, the purpose of the United States is to maintain the position of world hegemony; to maintain the position of its hegemony, it is necessary to prevent China's challenges of its composition, whether it is de facto or imagined.

A judgment here needs military conflict or even war between China and the United States?Because China and the United States are all large nations, and the possibility of hot war is extremely small.

Local conflicts are possible, for example, on the South China Sea and Taiwan, but the overall war between the two countries is difficult to imagine.And from the perspective of the United States, from the military and "conquering Andrdquo; China is not impossible, but also not necessary.

However, it is possible to develop from local conflicts to military political Cold War, and it is also the expectation of the United States' tough Cold War.

The Cold War faction hopes that whether it is through the trade war or other local conflicts, it will lead Sino -US relations to the military Cold War; once a military Cold War occurs, the United States will deal with China like the Soviet Union in the past.

Will the trade war evolved into a military Cold War?This depends on the interaction between the next stage of China and the United States.As far as China is concerned, what is going to consider is how to avoid the trade war into a military Cold War when the trade war with the United States.To achieve this goal, we must seriously consider why Trump mobilizes the issue of trade war.

What are you afraid of Trump to China?For Trump, China's core force lies in its increasingly growing Andrdquo;

China has become an "consumer society Andrdquo; what does it mean to the United States? This means China's" big market Andrdquo; and economic power.What can really promote China to change the entire world pattern is its huge Andrdquo; instead of other factors. Over the years, China has been accelerating into a world economic focus that can even compete with the United States.Consumption level.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that the core of this trade war is And "Technical Cold War Andrdquo;, which is aimed at and" Made in China 2025Andrdquo;.

After all, pass throughThe war is still a local conflict to lead Sino -US relations to the Cold War of the Citizens; once a military Cold War occurs, the United States will deal with China like the Soviet Union in the past.

What are you afraid of Trump to China?For Trump, China's core force lies in its increasingly growing Andrdquo;

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that the core of this trade war is And "Technical Cold War Andrdquo;, which is aimed at and" Made in China 2025Andrdquo;.

In the final analysis, through this Andrdquo; the United States does not want China to climb up at the technical level, at least to delay China's modernization process. It can also be said that China has fallen into Andrdquo;To and of "Poor Socialist andrdquo; Phase is the need for the United States.

As long as China stays in the state of "internal poverty andrdquo; state, China will not have external influence. From the perspective of the United States, China's Andrdquo;The most effective way to trap andrdquo;

Obviously, if China is in the way that the United States is expected to fall into Andrdquo; and avoid Andrdquo; that is not in line with China's interests, it is the minimum of China's national interests.How can China avoid this happening?In a word, it is necessary to resolve the contradictions between China and the United States through further reform and opening up, while avoiding falling into Andrdquo; and Andrdquo; and Andrdquo;

China should know its own technological development level

China first needs to find out its own family.For example, which step is the current technology development?If the industrial 1.0 version 1.0 is mechanized, version 2.0 is automated, version 3.0 is informatization, and version 4.0 is intelligent. Which position China is in?Where is the gap with the highest level internationally?How big is it?

In reality, most Chinese companies are between mechanization and automation.Informatization and intelligence are also developing, but how much is the original of China in these two levels?How much is the application of foreign technology?Which core technologies are highly dependent on China and even subject to other countries including the United States?What problems will these core technologies bring in the lack of these core technologies, what problems will they bring to China ’s economic development and national security?Can these problems be able to deal with it in a short time?

This series of issues is very important for how to deal with the Sino -US trade war.Although China's economic construction has indeed achieved significant achievements in the 40 years of reform and opening up, at the technical level, it is basically the application of Western technology. Now there is no real AND "Chinese manufacturing Andrdquo;

After World War II, the economic take -off of Germany and Japan and other countries was indeed built in Andrdquo; and Andrdquo; but China is not, but China is just "Chinese processing Andrdquo; and" Chinese assembly Andrdquo;EssenceOnly after you figure out your home, you can rationally evaluate the relationship between China and the United States.

To a certain extent, the trade war is inevitable, but it must be a very limited trade war.China can find a trade war in areas such as agricultural products or cars that can find replacement imports, but there is no way to fight in many technical fields, because China itself has no technology.Agricultural product replacement imports are easier to find.In terms of cars, Japan and Germany have technologies, and China can import them to these countries.

The rapid development of American shale oil technology means an increase in US energy export capabilities.China can increase its purchasing and investment in US energy, because in the United States, it is unwilling to export high -tech products to China, and other goods are not enough to balance the trade deficit between China and the United States. At present, only large energy can balance the deficit.The trade deficit is exactly what Trump values the most important things in Sino -US relations.

In the trade war, we must pay attention to the role of multilateralism.After the US officially launched the trade war this time, China first sued the United States to the World Trade Organization (WTO) to sue the US taxation measures. This direction is of construction significance.Chinese leaders have also recently emphasized multilateralism, and China will become more open.China will accelerate the opening of automobiles and finance next.In addition, China may need to consider the opening of the Internet industry to the outside world to allow more technology and capital to enter the Chinese market.

The Chinese Internet is just the application of American technology, without much original technology.China has accelerated the opening of the Internet market. Even in the initial stage, the West has more in the domestic Internet market, but at least China will have its own share and develop its original technology through real competition.

If it continues to continue to develop according to the current trend, the original technology of China's Internet market will be in the hands of the United States, and the Internet in China will be more difficult five years or ten years later.It has been protected for the Internet for so many years and has not caused the emergence of original technology.

In fact, the development of the automotive industry also illustrates this.It needs to be protected during the first period, but it needs to be open and competitive after a period of time, otherwise there will be no progress.

More importantly, to speed up the construction of an open platform in China, such as Andrdquo; Andrdquo, Hainan Free Trade Zone Andrdquo; and Andrdquo, the "Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area and Andrdquo;On these internal platforms, we must have a strong and in -depth reform policy, and the central government must be coordinated by the central government.

It takes time to establish a free trade zone with other countries and regions and not under the control of China, but these internal free trade platforms are completely under China's own control.It is necessary to make these internal open platforms have a strong attraction to international high -quality capital.

Internal reforms must also be accelerated, especially in terms of intellectual property rights.The protection of intellectual property rights is not only to cope with the pressure of the West, but also an effective mechanism for Chinese companies to provide technological innovation.Without the protection of intellectual property rights, enterprises will not have the motivation to innovate.At the same time, since China has obtained technology from the international market, it is necessary to educate enterprises to accept international rules.The lessons of the ZTE incident must be summarized carefully.

Generally speaking, although the Chinese market is very important to the United States, once the Cold War begins, the consideration of security will occupy the dominant position of the United States' relations with China, and the United States will have to give up the Chinese market for security.The United States can develop other markets, but if China is crowded out of the United States -led world economic system, or the decoupling of economic and trade between China and the United States, it will be Andrdquo;

(The author is the director of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)

(The article only represents personal point of view)