The bilateral relations beating between the conflict between conflict and close cooperation.
Chen Xiang seconds
After a year of stopping, the second round of maritime cooperation between China and India was successfully held in Beijing on July 13.This move once again shows that after a short -lived "Donglang incident andrdquo; after the storm, the bilateral relations between China and India finally returned to the right track.
However, reviewing the development of Sino -Indian relations since the end of the Cold War, we can find that the relationship between the two countries seems to be intimate idealism, and the new stage of pragmaticism in competition and cooperation with competition and hostism.The author believes that this Andrdquo; international relations are the "normally Andrdquo; and" normal Andrdquo;.
The direction of Sino -Indian relations depends to a large extent on how India thinks of China and the relationship between China.In the early days of World War II, under the principles of "moral diplomacy andrdquo.; India pursued idealist policies for China. Before 1958 to 1962Oppose the political power of hegemonism, and the cooperation of the unclear movement of the union has become many major events.
However, after the 1962 border war and India's support for Tibetan independence, India's foreign policy began to turn to Andrdquo; and regarded China as one of the main threats of national security.At the stage, the relationship between the two countries has fallen into a state of confrontation for nearly 30 years.
In the mid -1980s, thanks to the disintegration of the bipolar system, India began to implement a comprehensive and multi -level multilateral diplomatic diplomacy under the leadership led by major countries. It is committed to improving the relationship with neighboring countries and great powers, and foreign policies willFocus on turning to economic construction.In this context, China -India relations began to step on track.
But the good times did not last long. As the representative of Hindu nationalism and the conservative right wing of India; Andmdash; the Indian People's Party, after the stage in early 1998, India also regarded China as a threat and challenge, and conducted nuclear tests on the grounds.Under the guidance of hostile China's policy, the relationship between the two countries fell into the trough again.
To summarize the historical development of India's policy on China, it is not difficult to find that India sometimes uses idealistic perspectives, and uses China as the best Andrdquo; but sometimes it adopts an absolutely hostile strategy to show an immature side..
The bilateral relations beating between the conflict between conflict and close cooperation.
Since Modi served as the Indian Prime Minister in 2014, China -India relations have undergone unprecedented tests again.Especially in May 2017, India refused to send representatives to the "Belt and Road Andrdquo; Summit Forum for the Belt andrdquo; the Kashmir region that had sovereignty disputes.In June, the China -India border defense army had a confrontation in the Donglang area for nearly three months. The military confrontation between the two countries was upgraded at a time, and bilateral politics and diplomatic relations deteriorated.The two countries did not hold a leader meeting during the Summit of the Golden Group of Burry, Germany in July of that year. The bilateral relations fell to the "lowest point Andrdquo;
since the Indian nuclear test in 1998.However, the foreign policy of India has shown unprecedented pragmatic styles, especially for China ’s policies that have matured.
First, in the face of the nationalist emotions of domestic mainstream media, scholars and politics caused by the Donglang incident, the Indian government rationally controlled the differences and controlled the upgrade of conflict.The second is to abandon the previous long -term hostile policies, dilute contradictions and differences, and return to a pragmatic policy guided by national interests.In particular, the Indian government appoints "Zhihua Andrdquo; sent personnel to act as an important job of foreign departments, cooperate with China to push high -level interoperability of the two countries, and promptly promote the return of bilateral relations to the right track.Establish a high -level military hotline to prevent and control conflicts to achieve consensus. Fourth, facing the United States and Japan's strong strips, India adheres to independence and national interests -centered China, and does not make obvious camp options.
As the international strategic community and many observers say, China -India relations are rarely in a pragmatic stage, and most of the time in history are always at both ends of confrontation and cooperation.However, it is worth looking forward to that after the Donglang incident, Sino -Indian relations are moving towards a new stage of coexistence in competition and cooperation.
It is undeniable that, as two neighboring powers, China and India have competition on issues such as border territorial sovereignty, regional influence competition, and channel control.There are obvious conflicts. Especially in recent years, India has deeply worried about China's promotion of the implementation of the "Belt and Road Andrdquo; the Belt and Road Andrdquo;
For example, in July 2018, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India claimed that in response to the increase in contact with neighboring countries in China and India in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, India will adopt a three -pronged strategy: closely track China's every move, seek India's own projects and commitments, Inform and recommend the consequences of contact with China.At the same time, the Indian government has a strong alert psychology to China's military activities and military bases in the Indian Ocean, as well as the economic and security cooperation between China and South Asia.
Therefore, from this perspective, whether the government acknowledges whether the government of the Chinese and Indias has recognized or not, or whether they have realized that the competition between the two countries in the geopolitics and geopolitical fields always exists.What's more noteworthy is that, with the rapid growth of Indian national strength and the narrowing of the gap between China -India's comprehensive strength, as two major powers adjacent to each other, the competition between the two countries will only increase.In particular, the border dispute between the two countries may be difficult to reach consensus in the short term. The control of control over the Indian Ocean Channel will exist for a long time. The geopolitical competition between the two sides on the regional regional region of South Asia will also become increasingly complicated and obvious.
At the same time, as a large population country, China and India also have extensive common interests and cooperation space in both sides and multilateral fields.In the multilateral field, the two countries have a population of more than 1.3 billion (India is 1.339 billion and China is 1.38 billion).The Western Pacific Channel is safe, unobstructed and free in the field of freedom.In terms of global climate governance and environmental protection, the establishment of fair, fair, open, and stable international financial and trade systems, it also needs to strengthen cooperation to deal with challenges from developed countries such as the United States and Japan.At the bilateral level, China -India's cooperation potential is far from developing.
The total trade volume of the two countries in 2017 was US $ 84.4 billion, which was far from US $ 375.2 billion in China and the United States, US $ 302.99 billion in China and Japan, and 514.8 billion US dollars in China -ASEAN (Asia Gyanan), which was lower than 93.8 billion US dollars in China.The total population of the two countries exceeds 2.7 billion, and the potential of bilateral trade is far from being developed.At the same time, China -India trade is mainly concentrated in low -value -added raw materials and manufacturing products, and there is huge potential for cooperation in high -tech research and development and industrial development.
Frankly speaking, according to the logic of the theory of Western international relations, as a near -neighboring country in the synchronous growth of the two countries, the competition in the fields of resource, regional and international influence, and border sovereign disputes will inevitably be inevitable.It can even be asserted that compared with cooperation, the proportion of competition will only be more.But at the same time, China -India cooperation is not only a trend of the general trend of the international structure, but also the urgent demand for the sustainable development of domestic economic and social in the two countries.Therefore, competition or cooperation is a subject that requires the decision -making level of China and India seriously.
The author is an assistant researcher at the South China Sea Research Institute
