The U.S. and European trade war suspended the Fire World Trade into a new battlefield in China and the United

Ming Pao News Agency

Last Wednesday, US President Trump issued a joint statement in the United States and Europe after the meeting with the European Commission President Juncker, announcing that the two parties jointly committed to Andrdquo;The World Trade Organization (WTO), before the negotiations reached an agreement, put forward tariffs on each other. The EU agreed to import more American soybeans and liquefied petroleum gas. The US White House economic adviser Kudelo said that the EU has promised to assist the United States against China trade measures. From the United States and Europe's joint statement, it is necessary to jointly promote the WTO reform, and Kudlo said. This is true. Trump's strategy has changed from the previous WTO to modify the rules of the game, which is tantamount to opening up in the trade warA new battlefield.

Internal contradictions in the West are temporarily relieved of Andnbsp; Andnbsp; jointing to China is not empty talk

There are still many doubts about whether the suspension agreement reached by the United States and Europe's temporary ceasefire can be implemented.But for the West, the United States and Europe are the real "Westandrdquo;, and the rest of the world is And" The Restandrdquo;.Therefore, the contradiction between the United States and Europe is just and "internal conflicts of the West and Andrdquo; in terms of joining China, the two sides have a lot of common interests.P>

In this United States and Europe, the fourth statement of the United States and Europe wrote: And "we will cooperate closely with the like-like partners (with like-minded partners) to promote the WTO reform to solve unfair trade behaviors, including theft of intellectual property, forced transfer transferTechnical behavior, industry subsidies, distortions caused by state -owned enterprises, and overcapacity problems. ANDRDQUO; The desire to whispering by the spear head, from Europe and the United States, this is a struggle between "free capitalist andrdquo; and and" national capitalist Andrdquo;. In Andrdquo; trade issues, the United States and Europe can be described as enemies.During the review of China's trade policy on the WTO of Geneva on the 12th of this month, the US proposal to be expelled from China ’s membership was rejected by 70 member states.They rehearsed their unanimous drama to China.In recent months, China and the United States have sued each other in the WTO. The representatives of the two countries repeatedly had lip guns and swords in the conference speeches. The smell of gunpowder was full, indicating that the contest of trade in the WTO had begun.

The United States' dissatisfaction with the current rules of the WTO, according to the US Trade Representative in March this year, including allowing member states to recognize that it is Andrdquo;A decision made within 90 days, etc.

On the other hand, the United States has been delaying the appointment of the WTO judges, thereby paralyzing the WTO mechanism, and at the same time, it was sued with the WTO to other countries to disrupt the World Trade.EU countries have also urged the WTO to make new specifications on the "mandatory technical transfer and industrial subsidy Andrdquo; industrial subsidies and industrial subsidies, and the spearhead also points to China.

Although the previous statement of China and the European Union also expressed the attitude of supporting the WTO reform, China ’s statement of this US -Europe statement is very cautious. For the reform of the WTO, it only expressed that“ I hope that the relevant efforts and measures of the United States and Europe can work with the majority of development with the majority of development.The country's demands consistent and Andrdquo; and also hope that Andrdquo; such as "conforming to the rules of multilateral trade, such as non -discrimination principles, and hopes that Andrd" reflects the demands of most members, and through the advanced reforms, the basic purpose of the WTO will not change Andrdquo;.

Three endings of Sino -US trade and war ANDNBSP; Andnbsp; avoid being excluded

In the context of the temporary ceasefire in the U.S. and European trade war, there are several possible endings in the Sino -US trade war.

First, after friction and negotiations, a ceasefire agreement similar to the United States and Europe was finally reached, that is, partially purchased American goods to partially to partially meet the US requirements, and then the two parties slowly negotiated.But from the experience of negotiating in China and the United States, the possibility is not high.

Second, China cooperates with the WTO reform led by the United States and Europe. In the case of joining with major emerging economies, under the current system of several people in the WTO, although China may also make concessions in terms of economic and even political systems, the benefit damageNot too big.

The third ending is the protracted or impatient of Western countries led by the United States on the WTO reform or failed to reach its goal.

Before the US and Europe reached a ceasefire agreement, on the 17th of this month, the European Union and Japan signed an Andrdquo; according to the agreement, the European Union will cancel 99%of the tariffs of Japanese imported goods, and Japan will cancel the EU imported goods.94%of tariffs. If the United States and the European Union can reach a free trade agreement, they will overlap with the Japan -Europe Free Trade Zone. At that time, most countries such as Canada, New Zealand, Australia and other countries will choose to join.In fact, the death penalty of the WTO was sentenced to the death penalty of the WTO, and the global trade rules and trade order will change greatly.

Trump is not Andrdquo; but to be conducive to the United States, plus Andrdquo; the word "two words.He felt that the current trading system was unfair to the United States, and Andrdquo; the United States is his strategy. Whether it is withdrawal from the unsatisfactory WTO or transforming the WTO according to his own will, it means that if he succeeds, the international order is likely to be rewritten.

The trade war launched by Trump has been abolished some of the WTO so far; the establishment of a "zero tariff andrdquo; free trade system that is beneficial to the United States, the objective effect is to force those and" alternative Andrdquo; or integrate into the "alternative Andrdquo;In the new rules, it is either crowded out of the new world trade order, and this new world trade pattern is very likely to be unfavorable to China. This is the third ending.

Among these three endings, the first one is the first of China, but the possibility of the second one is very high. The third ending seems to be unlikely, but it is not impossible to happen. China should try its best to avoid it.