On July 25th in Washington time, after talks with Trump, President Juncker, the European Commission, issued a joint statement on the European Union's official website.The statement said that the United States and the European Union will start & ldquo; one of the strong economic and trade cooperation for the win -win situation of the two parties & rdquo;, jointly committed to & ldquo; zero tariffs, eliminate non -tariff barriers, eliminate subsidies for non -automotive industrial products & rdquo;& ldquo; exempt from unfair global trade violations & rdquo;.
Trump continued to push, saying that & ldquo; This is a great day of freedom and fair trade & rdquo; & ldquo; US relations with the European Union returned to the right track & rdquo;At the same time, & ldquo; the European Union will buy US soybeans immediately and import a large number of American LNG (LNG) & rdquo;.
Although the U.S. and Europe had been tense due to the problem of steel aluminum and car tariffs, this gentle situation is worth noting.In particular, the economic and trade relations of & ldquo; zero tariffs, zero barriers, zero -zero -barriers, zero -barriers, zero -barriers, zero subsidies & mdash; & mdash; Does it mean the economic integration of the West?Or a new variant of TTIP and TPP?In the context of the trade war, what does this news mean to China?
Zheng Yongnian, a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore today, asked him to bring us an interpretation.
1. Xia Ke Island: Why did Trump reach this & ldquo; trade united front & rdquo;?It seems that even before the tariffs were tight, the relationship between the United States and the European Union & ldquo; allies+brothers & rdquo;
Zheng Yongnian: West is still the West.The United States Europe is & ldquo; West & rdquo;, the others are & ldquo; the rest & rdquo;.It can be said that the contradiction between the United States and Europe is similar to their & ldquo; internal conflicts of the West & rdquo;; & ldquo; China can form an alliance with Europe & rdquo;
Under the previous trade system, the market in the United States is indeed more open, and Europe depends more on the United States, rather than the opposite.Their industrial level and technical capabilities are similar, and their advantages are similar.However, the advantages of the United States are more prominent: big markets, technology leading, innovative, and US dollars, Europe cannot be separated from the United States.So it is normal for Europe to compromise this time.Even if Trump used to use tariffs & ldquo; punishment & rdquo; they would not leave the US market.
What exactly do Trump's series of actions want?Pay attention to his words: & ldquo; freedom & rdquo; and & ldquo; fair & rdquo; trade.He is not not & ldquo; free trade & rdquo;, but to add & ldquo; fair & rdquo;.He felt that the previous trade system caused unfairness.I wanted to do TTIP during the Obama period, but I did not get it down; but Trump did it shortly after.He is an action.
What is Trump's strategy?& ldquo; U.S. priority & rdquo; It is his strategy.The globalization since the 1980s has formed a world system; with the above four advantages, the United States has become the boss in this world system.For the United States, there is no problem for anyone, but you can't miss me, whether it is a market, technology or a US dollar.Therefore, Trump's point of view is clear, and he also gave him the confidence of waving trade sticks everywhere.It is the same strategy to Europe, Japan, and China.
In other words, in Trump's view, I lack you, I just temporarily lost this market; but you can't find your absolute advantage over the United States.Even in China's comparative advantages, the United States can find alternatives.
2. Xia Ke Island: In February 2016, when the TPP agreement was signed, Obama said: & ldquo; TPP will make the United States more advantageous in competition with China, let the United States instead of writing 21st century rules & rdquo;Now, although Trump has withdrawn from TPP and does not have a cold to the WTO, he seems to want to re -write international order.Will there be a higher threshold and stricter free trade system between the United States and Europe?
Zheng Yongnian: Trump is stronger than Obama.Obama said clearly, & ldquo; not allowing Chinese writing rules & rdquo; too much ideology.Write the rules and then ask the Chinese obedience, or it is separated.Businessman Trump can see very clearly: the discussions of these rules are useless, and still rely on strength.His strategy is more effective, that is, the benefit is promoted.If you want the interests of the United States, you must obey me.He is also the United States' Reagan School and Realist School, and use interests to promote rules.
#P#副#E#If an incomplete analogy is made according to the ancient tribute system, Trump's purpose is to establish a hierarchical market system: the United States is the boss of the center, the allies are in a circle, Japan and Russia are in the outer circle.Unlike the tribute system, the ancient Chinese tribute was & ldquo; Eunhui & rdquo; you gave me five dollars for you; Trump is priority, you have to give me money, & ldquo; Sustainable development& rdquo;.
Let's not underestimate what Trump does.Perhaps the United States will also perform power politics for small countries, but he does not believe that power politics can conquer big powers like China and Russia.He does not believe that the Democratic Party's ideology and values, and even North Korea and Canada can have no difference, that is, naked interest competition.If Trump succeeds, if he can still be re -elected, the possibility of rewriting international order is very high.Although the United States has emphasized ideological and power -powered factions is still strong, what Trump does at this stage also meets the fundamental interests of these factions.
If an incomplete analogy is made according to the ancient tribute system, Trump's purpose is to establish a hierarchical market system: the United States is the boss of the center, the allies are in a circle, Japan and Russia are in the outer circle.Unlike the tribute system, the ancient Chinese tribute was & ldquo; Eunhui & rdquo; you gave me five dollars for you; Trump is priority, you have to give me money, & ldquo; Sustainable development& rdquo;.
Let's not underestimate what Trump does.Perhaps the United States will also perform power politics for small countries, but he does not believe that power politics can conquer big powers like China and Russia.He does not believe that the Democratic Party's ideology and values, and even North Korea and Canada can have no difference, that is, naked interest competition.If Trump succeeds, if he can still be re -elected, the possibility of rewriting international order is very high.Although the United States has emphasized ideological and power -powered factions is still strong, what Trump does at this stage also meets the fundamental interests of these factions.
3. Xia Ke Island: Wall Street Journal and NBC's latest polls show that Trump's support in the Republican Party has reached 88%, and the support rate among voters is also 45%.Think tanks, including CCG (China and Global Think Tank), also said that the American elite and multinational companies that have been encountered now are rarely willing to speak for China and lobby for China.What does this change in political situation mean?
Zheng Yongnian: Since Trump took office, the economic growth data of the United States has supported his public opinion support (Xia Ke Island Note: According to the White House data, in May this year, the U.S. unemployment rate is 3.8%, the lowest level in the past 50 years, manufacturing, SMEs, small and medium -sized enterprisesThe level of optimism reached the highest after tax reform; economists predict that the growth of GDP in the second quarter of the United States may exceed 4%).
The United States' domestic politics is complicated, and there are different interest groups that must analyze it in detail.In the past, we always watched Trump's Twitter, what he said, and his expression, but in fact, his behavior logic was highly consistent, which was different from the previous president.I used to say one set.In addition to the poor relationship with mainstream media, Trump has made a good economy, so he supports him in China.
Facing China, Trump does not want to break the relationship with Chinese leaders, which is not the same as domestic ideology and power politics. He does not want to lose China. This is different from the Cold War.But he is the first to pursue the interests of the United States. I do n’t talk to you, I ca n’t & ldquo;Wall Street also wants China to be more open. After all, from the logic of capital expansion, it will not want to lose China.
4. Xia Ke Island: How should China deal with this situation?
Zheng Yongnian: The situation of the trade war is still continuing, but it is necessary to prevent the decoupling of trade with the United States & ldquo;The decourse is the worst situation, because economic and trade is the & ldquo; cockpit & rdquo; & ldquo; stabilizer & rdquo;The achievements of China's 40 years of reform and opening up were achieved in an open and global state. The important part of this is economic and trade exchanges with the United States and Europe.Once the situation is decoupled, the situation will change completely, the Cold War faction in the United States will occupy the upper hand and will be surrounded by China like the Soviet Union.
I discussed with friends from the central department a few days ago, what is the purpose of the Trump trade war?In fact, the United States is not afraid of China's modernization.Although the U.S. military said that China is a threat to budget, the gap between the Sino -US military is still very large; China's per capita GDP, scientific and technological content, innovation level, and added value gap are also very large; China's political system has attracted some developing countries to some developing countries.Force, but not challenging the United States and Europe.
5. Xia Ke Island: But the United States has been rendering this & ldquo; threat & rdquo;.Today's United States and Europe Joint Statement Article 4 is almost the copy of the 301 survey of the accusations of China: & ldquo; solve unfair trade behavior, including intellectual property theft behavior, mandatory technology transfer behavior, industrial subsidies, distortions caused by state -owned enterprises, and production capacity caused by state -owned enterprises and production capacityExcess.& rdquo; But for China, these accusations have almost no evidence at all.
Zheng Yongnian: Of course, these are not Chinese national policies.Western rendering is purposeful, to enclose the so -called & ldquo; national capitalism & rdquo;.In their words, this is a struggle between free capitalism and national capitalism.This is the distinction of ideology and a public opinion battle.
In fact, for the United States, the real threat of China is that it has the potential to become the same consumer society in the United States.We know that & ldquo; Xiu Xide trap & rdquo; and & ldquo; medium -income trap & rdquo;, in many Americans, China falls into the middle income trap, which is the way to avoid China and the United States from entering the Xunxidd trap, because China is like thatWill not challenge the United States.
For China, what we really need to do is to do our own reforms, truly do our own things, and change each other's behavior through our own behavior.Real deepening reforms are in line with our national interests, such as the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and Intellectual Property Protection. True intensity and depth, the capital sees the favorable chart and will definitely come to China.
We must attract high -quality capital in our own way.From scale economy to quality and economy, a lot of high -quality capital is required.Trump is pulling high -quality capital to the United States.What to attract capital by China?If our own capital runs out, development will certainly become a problem.To make a few platforms, create a good environment, retain your capital, and attract external capital to come in.If China can also become a consumer society with the same quality in the United States, it will naturally be a huge attractive economic center, and many countries will naturally enter the influence circle of China.
Interview/Son Wuji 
