Bao Shenggang: Trumps hard force diplomacy during the trade war

US diplomacy has experienced the evolution of hard power diplomacy, soft power diplomacy, and clever strength diplomacy. The US foreign policy implemented by Trump is currently returning to hard power diplomacy.Its core is Andrdquo; and the so -called Andrdquo; the so -called Andrdquo; it is equivalent to buying American goods, hiring Americans, which is equivalent to chaos the world, forcing capital and industry to return to the United States, which is equivalent to making the United States the United States.Strong again.

American social historian Emmanuel and Middot; Immanuel Wallerstein once said: And "I don't believe that the United States and Americans are the roots of all sufferings and justice all over the world, but I believe they have benefited from the main benefitPeople. This is the fundamental problem of the United States as a country in the forest of the world. Anandrdquo; And the current the United States has done in the world, so that we have to believe that in order to become the beneficiary of the world's troubles again, the United States has made the United States stronger again.It is becoming a troublemaker of the world.

From a historical point of view, the power of the United States is inseparable from its economic success, and the success of the economy is inseparable from its continuous sources of innovation, and the source of innovation is inseparable from the American individualist struggle and free democratic system.

However, from history, the United States is inseparable from war, such as the Napoleonic War, the Second World War, and the Cold War.Although the United States is not the manufacturer of these wars, it is the biggest beneficiary, and the war makes the United States the world's Ark of the world.

The war provided a huge world market for manufacturing in the United States. The war brought a lot of capital to the United States, as well as talents from all over the world, and cheap labor.Mode.

After the Cold War, the United States and Western countries were advocates and promoters of economic globalization. They confidently believed that globalization was equal to democratization and marketization, while democratization and marketization equal to the United States and Westernization.The end of history.

With the opening of this Pandora box in Economic Globalization, hungry capital has flooded from the United States and Western countries to the other half of the earth, just like discovering the new continent, because there are huge markets and sufficient cheap labor.

The accelerated flow of capital and technology has changed the global industrial division of labor and trading systems that used the country as the main body. Among them, China's rise is the most eye -catching.When Hilly's husband Clinton was elected as the president of the United States in 1992, China's total economic volume was only equivalent to one of the United States.

According to statistics from the World Bank: At that time, the total amount of domestic product (GDP) in China at that time was only 6.74%of the United States.That year, China GDP was equivalent to $ 422.6 billion, and the GDP of New York State in the same year was US $ 519.7 billion.

At that time, the total economic amount of China, which was denominated in US dollars, was closer to nearly 100 billion US dollars than New York State.However, after 25 years, according to the World Bank data: In 2015, the US GDP was US $ 1.794 trillion, and the GDP of China was US $ 10.86 trillion in the same period.

China's GDP has reached 60.54%of the United States. The report from the International Monetary Fund is even more displayed. Based on the purchasing power, the US economy was US $ 17.4 trillion in 2014, and China reached US $ 17.6 trillion; that is, in 2014China's economic scale has actually surpassed the United States.

Undoubtedly, the reversal of economic globalization is obviously unexpected by the United States and Western countries. This must be said that history has given them a joke.So they turned to trade protectionism, transformed from advocates and promoters of economic globalization to opponents, and retracted themselves.

American international relations scholar Robert Andmiddot; Robert Gilpin once wrote that there are three strategies for the decline in three strategies to choose from. One of the most intense practices is to use their own military power to exclude economic challenges and military threats of emerging countries and military threats.;

The second is to retreat to the protection of trade, or weaken the economy of emerging countries; the third is to adopt policy measures that make the country's increasing economic revitalization.

The challenging countries are commonly combined to implement various strategies.

At present, as a challenging country in the United States and Western countries, this principle basically follows this principle. For example, if the United States returns to Asia and the implementation of the Asia -Pacific rebalancing strategy is to follow the first principle.Return to trade protectionism is to follow the second principle.And the United States re -industrialization strategy is to follow the third principle.After Trump entered the White House, he first announced his withdrawal from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TTP), and then announced that he would withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement.

In Europe, the contradictions between Russia and the United States, the European Union and its neighboring countries have intensified, almost back to the edge of the Cold War; in the Middle East, on the one hand, the Syrian chaos is still, and on the other hand, the United States provides Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran's confrontation;

In Asia Pacific, the United States not only put pressure on China in the South China Sea and North Korea, but also formed a pattern of mutual contribution to each other in China, Japan, Australia, and India.

The purpose of the United States is very clear. First, the United States can stop the rise of any country in the Europeania without spending a shot and one shot;

Second, to chaos Europe, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific can force the return of capital and industry;

Third, the United States can once again become the arsenal of so -called democratic countries. Eurasia has once again become a huge market for manufactured in the United States.

Fourth, with capital, investment, and market, naturally can solve employment problems, naturally can make the United States stronger again, and even reproduce the prosperity of the United States after the Second World War.

Can the United States be strong again in the world?Can the United States lead the world for another 100 years?Yes, the world needs a stable person, and this stable person is currently that the United States can bear it, and other countries are not ready.But

To do this, more than 30 years ago, the famous French politicians and historians Raymond Andmiddot; Raymond Aron to the United States advice: And "and" AND's national interests can obey a kind of rights and rights at the same time and follow the right of rights and.The international order of the law, otherwise it can neither defeat any country, nor can it be loyal to any country. Anandrdquo;

The author originally worked as an international political scholar in the Canadian International Group

Undoubtedly, the reversal of economic globalization is obviously unexpected by the United States and Western countries. This must be said that history has given them a joke.So they turned to trade protectionism, transformed from advocates and promoters of economic globalization to opponents, and retracted themselves.