Zheng Yongnian: The internal risk of China in the new period of China

What kind of internal and external risks are faced in China in the new period?The root cause of risks is nothing more than two aspects, that is, changes in the objective environment of internal and external internal and external environment and errors in response strategies.Overall, since entering the new period, the internal and external risks faced by China have still been around the "two traps of two traps andrdquo; the internal and internal" middle -income traps Andrdquo; andThe external Andrdquo;

There are two risks of these two Andrdquo; one, one is that many objective environments may contribute to the country's "trap andrdquo;, the other is that the other is that the subjective level can not be effective to avoid this to avoid thisTwo traps, the decision errors in the latter aspect are the "disruptive error andrdquo;. This article first discusses the" secondary income trap andRDQUO; and "Xiu Xidde trap andrdquo; another articleDiscussion.

Before and after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, people were arguing about Andrdquo; for many years, there are two reasons for arguing for many years. First, there are two reasons for unsuccessful.It has been located in a low -end country in developed economies. Since it has escaped, there is no need to discuss it. Second, it cannot be controversial. China is not lacking of pessimism, but pessimism is easily considered political incorrect.Today, with the sharp changes in the internal and external environment, people began to feel that the country is not far from Andrdquo;It is difficult to avoid falling into.

So, and Andrdquo; Where is the core of the crisis? There are many roots of the crisis, but it is mainly reflected in the crisis of non -development. Since the reform and opening up, "development is the last word of hardness andrdquo;As a developing country, Chinese society is facing endless problems.This is not so surprised that this is the case in any society.But the place of success in China lies in continuous development.All problems are solved during the development process.However, once there is a problem with the development itself and causes the situation of non -development, then all other problems will emerge, not only will not be resolved, it will even deteriorate and eventually evolve into a crisis.

Like other issues, Andrdquo, Andrdquo; must also be avoided by sustainable development. After the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the economic development of China's economic development has entered a new normal, that is, from the previous double -digit high growth to less than 7%,That is, medium speed growth. This transformation is inevitable, because no economy can maintain permanent high growth. Whether it is environment, energy or human resources, it is difficult to bear such a sustainable and high growth. More important, in the high growth stage, Instead of paying insufficient attention to an important issue, that is, what kind of high growth? If high growth leads to the high degree of differentiation of society, the deterioration of the environment, and the failure of resources, then the high growth is not only unsustainable, but also the high growth of Andrdquo;EssenceTherefore, the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed Andrdquo; the focus of national policies has begun to turn to social distribution. In recent years, the state has even proposed the policy goals from quantitative economy to quality and economy.

However, even if it is a medium -speed growth, if it can maintain a 6%to 7%growth in the next 10 to 15 years, then China can still escape the middle income trap and enter the developed economy.The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China planned the country's development vision from 2017 to 2050, that is, to achieve a comprehensive well -off society in 2020, to basically realize socialist modernization by 2035, and to realize the modern power of socialist and beautiful socialist modernization in 2050.

It can be expected that by 2035, China will be promoted to a developed economy, at least today's "Four Little Dragon Andrdquo; Economy (that is, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan), namely Taiwan, that is, 20,000 per capita income per capita.About 5,000 US dollars. China ’s per capita income today is more than 9,000 US dollars. Although there is still a long way to go to Taiwan’ s level, if it can effectively implement Andrdquo, a “plank and economic development policy since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.If you go on, this goal is not difficult to achieve.

The reason for worrying about "medium -income traps andrdquo;

So, why are people worrying about the coming of Andrdquo.

The bureaucratic agency is a policy executive.Why not do it?There are both reasons for decision -making and reasons.As far as decisions are concerned, it is very important to emphasize the top -level policy design in these years, because the reform has reached this stage, that is, and "comprehensively deepened the Andrdquo; stage, the sporadic reform -lenting reforms of the department and local are unsustainable.As a result, some policies lack scientific and enforceability.For example, the policy of the Free Trade Zone involves excessive surfaces and does not fully consider the cost of trial and error, which has caused many powers to not fully let go.The reason is simple. If these powers are decentralized, the entire national economy will be affected.Because no one can ensure that the free trade zone can be successful, it is not unreasonable that some departments dare not decentralize power.

Another example is that precision poverty alleviation is extremely important because it is related to social fairness and stability.However, the policy design in many places is too ideal. Nearly Andrdquo; understanding precision poverty alleviation into poverty is completely eliminated. But the fact is that even the richest society will still have a considerable part of the poor, the world in the world, the world in the world, the world in the world, the world in the world, the world in the world, the world in the world, the worldCan't find a society without the poor. In order to achieve a society without the poor, many places mobilized the greatest forces to poverty alleviation.Poverty alleviation of formalism.Now some places are starting to worry that once the government stops "blood transfusion andrdquo;, then large -scale Andrdquo;

In addition, in terms of decision -making, at some government levels, these years have also shown the pursuit of the number of policies, and ignore the trend of policy quality.One of the reasons is that some people understand and understand and "comprehensively deepen the reform andrdquo; and the number of decisions in the pursuit of decision -making, the more policy, the more comprehensive the reform.The defined field of reform has the same importance and urgency.Policies must pay attention to "Breakthrough andrdquo;, which is the" outline of Andrdquo;No one can promote reforms without asking for the impact.

In addition, the quality of the policy often does not depend on the theoretical logic of the policy, but more depends on practical logic. A policy has strong theoretical logic and does not necessarily have practical logic.A policy that does not meet the logic of practice is often irreplaceable.Too many policies and the failure of the policy have led to a decline in policy reputation. People call Andrdquo; that is, people do not believe in the government's policies.

As far as the implementation of the policy is difficult, there are also many reasons, but one of the factors is that the scientific power supervision mechanism has not yet been in place.Whether it is anti -corruption or overcoming the resistance of vested interests to reform, it requires a high concentration of power supervision mechanisms.To this end, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has established a supervision right on the basis of the previous practice, indicating that the internal three -right system is in place, that is, decision -making, implementation and supervision.This system has a milestone significance for China's long -term public order.However, the relationship between the three powers, the internal operation mechanism, and the relationship between the three powers requires a long time of exploration.For now, oneThe more comprehensive the reform.In fact, Andrdquo, "comprehensively deepen reform of reform, does not mean that all these defined reform areas have the same importance and urgency. Policies must pay attention to Andrdquo;. No one can promote the reform without asking for the impact.

As far as the implementation of the policy is difficult, there are also many reasons, but one of the factors is that the scientific power supervision mechanism has not yet been in place.Whether it is anti -corruption or overcoming the resistance of vested interests to reform, it requires a high concentration of power supervision mechanisms.To this end, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has established a supervision right on the basis of the previous practice, indicating that the internal three -right system is in place, that is, decision -making, implementation and supervision.This system has a milestone significance for China's long -term public order.However, the relationship between the three powers, the internal operation mechanism, and the relationship between the three powers requires a long time of exploration.At present, once the right to supervise or can be monitored, the execution right will be "idle andrdquo;.

In practice, if you want to reform or implement policies, there must be a risk of making mistakes; once you make mistakes, you must be supervised.To a large extent, if the only responsibility of the supervisory agency is to find Andrdquo; then you can find Andrdquo; like Andrdquo;The opposition party will definitely find the reasons for the dignified reasons to oppose the ruling party. At present, in many places, in many places, there are more people who are more complained than those who work, and the statement is zero. In this case, many bureaucratic bureaucrats are many bureaucrats.Choose inaction rationally. Although there will be risks "inaction as Andrdquo; as well, the risk of" do not act as Andrdquo; and the risk brought by "making mistakes andrdquo;Although the central government has issued a document, allowing the "trial and error Andrdquo; but these documents are not legal, and it is difficult to change the actual behavior of the executor.

In addition, the risk of "secondary income trap andRDQUO; and because of the international environment and geopolitics, especially the recent Sino -US trade war, it has greatly improved (how external factors affect China's" secondary income trap andrdquo;Essence

How to avoid falling into Andrdquo;

So, internally, how can the current situation change through policy changes and avoid falling into Andrdquo; this andrdquo; "disruptive error andrdquo;At least the following aspects can be considered.

First, it is necessary to correctly understand and "top -level design Andrdquo;.. Do not simply understand the" top -level design andrdquo; simply understand it as "superior design Andrdquo;The combination of top and top -down; at the same time, there is no large number of investigations, and it is difficult to have a scientific top -level design.

Second, decision -making needs to shift from quantity to quality.Although the reform needs to overcome scattered, and comprehensively advances, it is necessary to find effective breakthroughs among many policies.There are breakthroughs and comprehensive advancement of no breakthrough, and the effect is different.

Third, the central government must grasp the general direction, and the executive department must grasp the details.Many policies are too macro now, too theoretical, and even too ideological, and lack of executable details.Policies without details are not only difficult to implement, but they will also go in the process of execution.The details of the policy require the participation of professional talents.As far as central and local relations are concerned, many policies need local participation.

Fourth, in many fields, the state needs local policies.China's national scale determines the importance of local.Since the reform and opening up, it is difficult to understand the huge changes in China's socio -economic changes without the initiative of the place.Although in some areas such as finance and rule of law, the role of the central government is becoming more and more important, which means that centralized power is needed, but many policy areas still require local characters, such as local economic and social services.These areas are the main body, while the central government is a regulator.

Fifth, you need to do policy review and evaluation.Over the years, I have worked hard in adjusting the economic structure, but the effect is not ideal.For example, everyone is aware that focusing on the development of the real economy, but to curb excessive financial and Internet economies.However, after so many years, it has not changed the situation of heavy financial and Internet and the real economy, and the most financial power can not flow into the real economy.Why is this?

Sixth, the implementation of policy implementation requires the action of each action subject.This requires selective centralization and selective decentralization. The concentration is concentrated, and those who should be decentralized will be put down.The relationship between the market and the government stipulated in the Third Plenary Session of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the relationship between the country and the society needs to be transformed into a actual operating policy.As far as the action is concerned, the situation in these years is that the central government is moving, but it is difficult for local, state -owned enterprises, private enterprises, and foreign companies to move, and they have not even moved.Since the reform and opening up, these are the subject of policy implementation.If these actions cannot be moved, the policy will still stay on the paper.

Seventh, the top priority is to establish and establish the "rule of law government Andrdquo; whether the government's legitimacy or efficiency set by the government or efficiency set by the" rule of law government Andrdquo;The government must not only regulate corporate behavior, but also regulate its own behavior. Although the construction and regulatory government has already become the goal of reform, the government has still been controlled by the government.Andrdquo; but the main reason is still difficult to put.Under the regulatory government, the operation principle of the enterprise should be Andrdquo; but under the control government, the government is still standing at the door to prevent enterprises from entering.So. If the government does not give social development, society will never grow up.

Simply put, the government is a (rule of law) structure, not so many details.The details are markets and society. Without the market and society, there will be no sustainable development power mechanism.

(The author is the director of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore) (The article only represents his personal point of view)