Sino -US trade war: challenge opportunities and final results

Core reading

The history of the revolution, construction, and reform of the Communist Party of China has proven that our party is good at trial, to discover and seize opportunities, fight for guerrilla warfare, lasting war, and tough battles, good at turning crisis as the opportunity, and passiveness.In the face of the trade war, we ca n’t be timid. The important prerequisite for winning the king of the victory is to maintain a strategic determination, all the hearts, and the group strength.In the process of modernization in the future, China will continuously grow the shortcomings of the system through comprehensive deepening reform. By play the decisive role of the market, better play the role of the government, high -efficiency allocation of resources, and achieve high -quality development.

Why do the Sino -US trade war must fight

In other words, can this trade war avoid?The conclusion is: not to be shifted with our will, we must not fight.

First, the initiative that cannot be played is not in our side.The United States took the initiative to provoke the dispute, forced step by step, the limit pressure and blackmail, without faith, repeated impermanence, and unreasonable.It is obviously not shifting by the will of Chinese.Faced with the big sanctions rods that come straight, there are only two choices in China: either succumbing to the United States for bullying, and since then the humiliation is to be carried out; either to resist and establish the image of a large country they have, so that the other party knows that the Chinese are not bullying.

Second, the nature of the trade war must not help but fight.This trade war is different from the past. It is not limited to trade, or even in the field of high -tech industry, but a strategic game related to the National Games.my country has never been compromised on the issue of principles, not compromising when poverty is backward, and now it has developed, and there is no reason to compromise.

Third, people like a businessman like Trump must not help but fight.Trump talked about the four stages of doing business in his autobiography of "doing business": one is to put forward amazing goals; the other is to propagate; the third is to repeatedly sway; the fourth is to obtain intuitive results.He wrote: And "A" far higher than expected conditions allowed the opponent to be unable to start Andmdash; Andmdash; repeated changes to the opponent to put pressure onmdash; Andmdash; give the opponent's eagerness to accept Andmdash; andMDASH;The result you want. Anandrdquo; Trump obviously regards Sino -US economic and trade negotiations as a "big business Andrdquo;.

Fourth, the cultural character of the United States is to bully weak service.The United States has always been bullied and scared. And "Picking the Soft persimmons and pinching Andrdquo; it is the past practice in the United States. Andrdquo; it is the habitual thinking of the United States.

How to fight the Sino -US trade war

Strategic speaking, Chinese culture emphasizes the post -developer, which is surprisingly positive. With quiet braking, four or two pounds, longer than Roukegang, and Andrdquo; The history of the revolution, construction, and reform of the Chinese Communist Party has proved that our party is good at reviewing the situation and good at the time.Discover and seize opportunities, fight for guerrilla warfare, lasting war, and tackling battles, good at turning danger into the opportunity, and turning passiveness into initiative.

As far as tactics are concerned, they are talking while talking, while talking, compromising in each other, and promoting Sino -US relations to a new balance.China's attitude towards the trade war has gone through a process of fighting, preparing to fight, first courtesy, and tougher.In view of the comparison of China and the United States, China will take an AND "quantitative and quality type combination of Andrdquo; and ANDRDQUO;

The basic combat method is:

Occupy the high point of the moral system.In the context of globalization, unilateralism, which is harmful to self -interest or even disadvantages, is unpopular.The United States took the lead in destroying international rules, and successfully shaped the images of the international order and the widow of the world economy.

What is formed is that while China counterattacked the United States, it complied with the trend of globalization, held up the banner of free trade, opposed trade protectionism, and accelerated the pace of opening up.Justice and comfort.For some time, there have been more people who have spoken in China.For example, some German media commented: And "China has long been based on the world economy, not only showing diligence, but also mastering technology. It is unreasonable to prevent China from developing technology.A firm commitment to free trade and multilateralism believes that China's recently announced package of open policy is a step towards the correct direction.

The launch of a trade war in the United States has caused concerns from the international community.Lagarde, president of the International Monetary Fund, pointed out: The United States needs to assume the consequences of the "tariff injury and Andrdquo; ANDKUO.Former Chairman Grimpan believes that the US tariffs imposed by the United States are actually paid by the US citizen. The Bank of England President Kani said that the United States will become the largest loser in a comprehensive trade war.

Combined.One of the basic strategic thinking of winning the Sino -US trade war is to make friends a lot.Some Western scholars analyzed that China is lucky. As the boss, not only does it not be able to deal with China with other countries, but instead starts with China to launch a global trade war.In the trade war, the sword refers to China, attacked by all sides, and is isolated. Obviously, it has committed the taboo of soldiers, so that China has the opportunity to become competitors for partners and provides possibilities for partners.

First, the United States is suspicious of its Western allies.First, it is different from the EU in terms of values.Europe has always been high -profile on human rights issues. As soon as Trump came to power, Trump announced that he had abandoned human rights diplomacy.In the trade war, the Trump administration cited Trip 232 clauses to tariffs on steel aluminum products such as Canada, the European Union, and Japan.The Canadian and the European Union against the United States against the United States, the retaliation list proposed was nearly $ 300 billion, and Japan followed up.Although the latest news is that the United States and Europe have reached a consensus to stop the trade war, but from the perspective of Trump's repeated impermanence, the US and European economic relations are still full of uncertainty.

Second, the tariffs on steel and aluminum tariffs on emerging countries such as India and South Africa show a strategic contradiction.On the one hand, the Trump administration promoted Andrdquo; Latin to check and balance China, on the other hand, it imposed tariffs on Indian products and harmed India's interests, forcing India to counter and adjust the relationship with China.

Third, the Middle East and the Middle East Andrdquo; cause trouble to get trouble. Move the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem to cause a new crisis. While stirring the Syrian war situation, regardless of the opposition of relevant countries, withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, sanctioned Iranian Iranian sanctions on IranHe even threatened to military strikes and tension with Iran.

In the process of trade war, China is opposite to the United States, on the other hand, fighting for the support of the international community.The first is to adjust and improve relations with neighboring countries and strengthen bilateral economic cooperation.The second is to resort to the World Trade Organization and seek the rules of the WTO and the support of international public opinion.The third is to counter the United States and increase the 25%tariff on US soybeans, which exempts import tariffs on soybeans and animal feed, including India and other national soybean and animal feed.The fourth is to continue to promote bilateral and multilateral free trade.Since 2002, my country has signed 16 free trade agreements with 24 countries and regions. There are currently 13 free trade zone negotiations on the conduct, and joint research or upgrading of the Free Trade Agreement with 10 countries.

Precise blow.The Andrdquo; effect of using the trade war "Flying to the device Andrdquo; 40%of the exports of goods in my country and 2/3 of the export of high -tech products are realized in Chinese foreign -funded enterprises. In this case, the United States' trade with China to China is Sanctions converted into "sanctions Andrdquo; and" sanction Andrdquo;.Due to the increase in costs caused by the trade war, some affected American companies have begun to reduce production or layoffs, and some companies are planning to move the production line out of the United States.The U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned that a total of 2.6 million U.S. jobs could face risks.

For U.S. pain points, "targeted hit Andrdquo; China peer -to -peer improving tariffs on American agricultural products, US agriculture suffered a large loss, and forced the Trump administration to subsidize farmers.Tariffs, the export of American cars to China was affected, and the share in the Chinese market was squeezed.

In the next step, my country can consider taking new targeted measures according to the development of the situation.

What is the final result of the Sino -U.S.

First of all, look at the general trend.And "the world trend, mighty, smooth, and the opposite of Andrdquo; The General Secretary of the China Leader pointed out: And"There are 13 negotiations in the free trade zone, and joint research or upgrading of the Free Trade Agreement with 10 countries.

In the next step, my country can consider taking new targeted measures according to the development of the situation.

What is the final result of the Sino -U.S.

First of all, look at the general trend.And "the world's trend, mighty, smooth, and the opposite of Andrdquo; General Secretary of China leaders pointed out: And" and "my country has been in the best development period since modern times, and the world has not changed in a century.Andrdquo; In today's world, globalization is irreversible, and China's rise is unstoppable.The United States launched a global trade war, and the implementation of isolationism is actually moving against globalization.The United States launched a trade war in China, and it was not allowed to promote and promote "Made in China 2025Andrdquo;, which is not allowed to upgrade China's industry. The purpose is to block China's modernization and curb the revival of the Chinese nation.

In Andrdquo; the international trade war on "a century -old change in a century -old change. It is a challenge for China and an opportunity. History proves that the crisis is often the driving force of change. This trade war is likely to be small in China.Battle small changes and greatly changes. Chinese Go's chess theory is that it is more important than conspiracy. China will exchange local losses in exchange for global interests and temporarily passively exchange for long -term initiative.A new historical opportunity. On July 25, the General Secretary of China Leaders said in a speech at the Johannesburg BRICS Industry and Commerce Forum that and in the next 10 years, it will be the 10 years of accelerating the evolution of the international pattern and power comparison.Andrdquo; Andrdquo; "Emerging market and developing countries in the development of the community of groups are unsatisfactory. ANDRDQUO;

Of course, we must be awake to see that the United States is still an economic power, a military power, a strong science and technology country, and a financial power. And Andrdquo; the status of the world's boss andrdquo; The degree of economic and social development and comprehensive strength still have a large gap with the United States. Andrdquo "big but not strong andRDQUO; so that my country is subject to western countries such as the United States in many aspects.The results of the investigation results of more than 130 key basic materials in more than 30 large enterprises across the country show that 32%of key materials are still blank in China, 52%rely on imports.More than 70%of smart terminal processors and most storage chips depend on import.In this situation, we must realize that the Sino -US trade war is an unprecedented tough battle. Its future trend has great uncertainty. It is not easy to fight for strategic initiative and ultimate victory.We do not take the initiative to challenge the United States, and of course we will not retreat under the threat of the trade war, and bow their heads.The strong victory is not a natural historical logic, and there are many examples of those who are weak in history.

Andrdquo; Andrdquo; Andrdquo; "self -strong winner and Andrdquo;.For China, which is relatively weak, in order to win in the trade war, we must use the momentum to make a momentum, use their strength, avoid strengths and avoid weaknesses, exert their own advantages, practice internal skills, and strengthen their bones.

Secondly, from the actual results.Under the impact of the trade war, my country's economy may enter a relatively special period. The external environment is tightening, and the pressure on economic growth and the pressure of fluctuations in the stock market, the bond market, the exchange market, and the housing market will increase.It is particularly noteworthy that following Japan and the European Union reached a free trade agreement, the United States and the European Union issued a joint statement declared that Andrdquo, subsidies for non -tariffs, eliminating non -tariff barriers, eliminating non -tariff barriers, eliminating subsidies for non -automotive industry products. It is possible for Europe to reach the trend of the three -party free trade agreement, which will put new pressure on our country, and my country's economic development will face severe tests.

Nevertheless, comprehensive analysis of various aspects, today's China is no longer China in the past, we are conditional and capable of responding to this serious challenge.This is not only the advantages of socialism with Chinese characteristics, but also the unique advantages analyzed by scholars: First, a huge domestic market.With the sharp decline in my country's foreign trade dependence, the continuous expansion of consumption, and the strengthening of the power structure of the domestic demand, the destructive of trade sanctions to my country's economy has declined.my country's industrial export delivery value accounted for more than 20%of the total industrial output value 3 years ago, and in 2017 decreased to about 10%. The dependence of industrial exports was significantly reduced.According to the calculation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, whether it is 50 billion US dollars or US $ 200 billion in tariff lists, if it will be folded by 50 billion US dollars and US $ 200 billion in RMB, the proportion of my country's total industrial output value is less than 1%.The differentiation and gradient characteristics of my country's market can make us obtain a lot of room for rotation in the process of dealing with the trade war.The second is a complete industrial system.Among all the industrial categories determined by the United Nations, China is the only country in the world that has all 39 large categories and 525 small categories in the world, while the United States only has about 95%of all categories.The third is strong learning ability.China has now become an innovative furnace, including high -speed rail, satellite, missiles, aircraft carriers, fighters, artificial intelligence and other fields.In addition, a large number of foreign exchange reserves have also provided conditions for my country to respond to the trade war.my country's foreign exchange reserves have the number one consecutive years in a row, accounting for 27.5%of the global.

Of course, what is also important as material conditions is spiritual power.In the face of the trade war, we ca n’t be timid. The important prerequisite for winning the king of the victory is to maintain a strategic determination, all the hearts, and the group strength.It must be realized that it is impossible for a trade war to not pay, and fight with the world's number one strong country.Although we can't Andrdquo; but we can't have bloody. Although my country is not a strong country, it has considerable comprehensive strength although China is not yet a strong country. Win this defense battle for multilateralism and free trade.

Everything is divided into two.The trade war launched by the United States has made us deeply realize that my country's "where shortcomings Andrdquo; where the short board andrdquo; deeply realize the taste of being stuck around the neck. The lack of core key technologies must be subject to people. Investment and R & D in the technical field, bring more capital and high -end talents, and rush to catch up with the high point of seizing the scientific and technological system.

Another actual effect of the trade war is to force China to further accelerate the reform of the system.In the process of modernization in the future, China will continuously grow the shortcomings of the system through comprehensive deepening reform. By play the decisive role of the market, better play the role of the government, high -efficiency allocation of resources, and achieve high -quality development.

(Author: Vice President of the Central Party School)