Trial Time
History will be in mind July 6, 2018: On this day, the large -scale trade war in China and the United States officially launched. It has always been called & ldquo; Sino -US relations cockpit & rdquo; economic and trade field has become smoke.If the US & ldquo; Asia -Pacific rebalancing & rdquo; Strategy at the end of 2011, opened the geopolitics and military confrontation between China and the United States, then the economic and trade field has also joined the confrontation.New normal & rdquo;.
China seems to have failed to keep up with the situation in many ways.The expression of an image can be said that China can now play cards at the same table with the United States, but in comparison, the ace in the hands is very limited.
The above statements include two connotations: First, have the United States have fallen into decline?This should be a pseudo -proposition, because from the inspection of several comprehensive indicators such as politics, economy, military, culture, science and technology, education, and social culture, it is not difficult to find that the United States is still full of energy and far ahead.Of course, compared to the U.S. ride at the end of the Cold War in the 1990s, the current macro situation is that many other countries are more concerned about development, people's livelihood and progress, and gradually narrowing the gap with the United States.
Furthermore, whether it is to be at the same time with the United States or at the same table, does it mean that China is already unstoppable, & ldquo; great, my country & rdquo;?This prospect is not necessarily.History testimony: During the Cold War & rdquo; during the Soviet Union, the influence of its comprehensive military power and forces was quickly divided into autumn with the United States, but the Soviet model proved that it was unsustainable, and finally lost to smoke.
To effectively grasp the movement of the United States, you must understand the Trump administration that is now born.A successful billionaire, atypical politicians, and the fierce patriot, there are many populist tendencies, pragmatism, and even a bit vulgar & ldquo; New York street -style & rdquo; is the more accurate portrait portrait.
Trump's governance is a typical corporate management law governing the country. Strategies are not necessarily grand (but do not mean that his team is not far -sighted), but its execution is super strong.As long as he sees the deficit or problem in the financial and performance statements, he will start to solve the processing as soon as possible, dare to face complex challenges, pressure and objection, and is quite persistent in achieving quantitative goals.This is different from some senior politicians, which may not be sensitive to deficits, but considers or give priority to some difficulty and valuable benefits and values.
How will Trump change the United States?He wants to change some of the traditional naive and generosity in the United States, and operate mostly along the normal country's policy means.For example, the United States has always advocated and implemented a low tariff policy, but this is not the case in other countries. Generally, the tariff policy is adjusted according to the needs of the national industry and the relationship between supply and demand of commodity services.What Trump is doing now is either other countries seeing the United States or the United States to other countries.In short, Uncle Sam will also start to calculate carefully.
Regarding the policy of China, since China has been on the same table as the United States, the United States will start taking it seriously, and will no longer make China easy & ldquo; earn cheap & rdquo;In terms of economics and trade, China does not significantly reduce trade barriers, and the United States will no longer implement low tariffs; politically, China will restore ideological original teachings, and the United States will also face relevant value and conflict of value and doctrine.In the United States intellectual property rights, the United States will increase prevention and punishment for similar behaviors; in military, China continues to strengthen the existence and strength of the geography, and the United States must construct the Indo -Pacific League and ensure free sailing; public opinion and culture, Chinese restrictions and sealsBlocking American traditional and social media landing, the United States has also begun to block and restrict China's cultural soft power.
This is the new normal & ldquo;, the number of roads in the Trump administration has been tattooed by the new normal & ldquo; but it does not rule out close cooperation with China, provided that China will be & ldquo as soon as possible.Structure reform & rdquo;.If China still follows the old sets of the Soviet Union and the United States, it will have a small chance.At that time, the magic weapon of the United States at that time was to occupy the high point of the ideological system with democracy and freedom. The military reserve competition was hollowed out and dragged down the Soviet economy, and seized the opportunity of the Soviet Union to enter Afghanistan, which consumed the military strength of the Soviet Union.
Some people say that Sino -US relations have entered & ldquo; until the dark moment & rdquo;, it is sensational.& ldquo; Update time & rdquo; should be more appropriate & mdash; & mdash; challenge and opportunities coexist.
The author is an expert in international cultural strategic research and consultation in the United States
