The conflict caused by misunderstandings is easy to resolve; under the rational rational decision -making, the parties of the conflict are not easy to concession, and eventually ended with one party's defeat.
The two sides of the strait are currently falling into the conflict of conflict under this rational decision.Beijing and the DPP government, like two trains that are moving towards each other, both sides think that they are not wrong, and hope that the other party will turn and still go straight.Taichung City & ldquo; East Asian Youth Games & rdquo; The cancellation of the hosting right is showing the current crisis on both sides of the strait.
For the DPP government, Taiwan independence separationism is the correct ideology of politics. When the DPP government is currently dealing with cross -strait relations, it is based on not accepting & ldquo; 92 consensus & rdquo;& rdquo; and the target with & ldquo; enemy & rdquo; therefore, when the people initiated & ldquo; Tokyo Olympic Taiwan ’s referendum & rdquo;, the DPP naturally chose to cooperate.The Tsai government clearly knows that even if the referendum is passed, it is impossible to change the participation name of & ldquo; Chinese Taipei & RDQUO;, it may bring adverse trouble to Taiwan's participation in international sports organizations, but in order to consolidate the spread of traditional supporters and their Taiwan independence concepts, itTherefore, he is also willing to support the referendum.This is the decision -making thinking mode under the rationality of the DPP government.
For the Beijing government, the Taiwan independence route of the DPP government has been determined that it will not change. It is better to understand the DPP government's use of civil society as a wing side to launch a referendum to assist in the concept of Taiwan independence.Therefore, Beijing's thinking must be processed first, otherwise once the referendum is in case of the case, let's not mention it in case of it. Next year's & ldquo; East Asian Youth Games & RDQUO;The operation of power is also the product of rational decision.
For the DPP government, Beijing does not allow Taiwan to hold the East Asian Youth Games, which is exactly the mainland's hostility to Taiwan.During the election, the Green Camp can use it as a copy of the Zhou Ziyu incident & rdquo;If the blue camp candidates do not condemn Beijing's position with the Green Camp, they do not love Taiwan; if they are consistent with the Green Camp position, the DPP government & ldquo;sex.No matter which result, the DPP is profitable.Therefore, rational thinking will promote the DPP government to use this opportunity to attack Beijing without any reflection.
For Beijing, due to the DPP's firm Taiwan independence route and weak Kuomintang philosophy and limited strength, Beijing no longer expects the political forces of the country and the Democratic Party, but directly faces Taiwanese society.& ldquo; Hard, harder, soft and softer & rdquo; It is its basic principle. Therefore, using military aircraft warships around the island and diplomatic suppression to let Taiwanese people know & ldquo; Taiwan independence is the main thinking of war & rdquo;Therefore, when Beijing believes that the Olympic referendum is already an act of Taiwan independence, naturally choose to make a heavy hand.Like the logic of military and diplomatic suppression, this is a rational decision under the thinking of Beijing's anti -Taiwan independence thinking.
The problem comes.Does the DPP government understand that the referendum has caused cross -strait conflicts over the fire?Persons of rational Taiwan will not believe that there is a so -called & ldquo; peace division & rdquo; therefore, it is expected that the Taiwanese people's recognition of the mainland will completely break, and believes that cross -strait conflicts will help them promote Taiwan independence. Therefore, they are not worried about cross -strait conflicts.The rational green camp politicians believe that cross -strait relations are getting worse, and the cross -strait discussion on the blue camp is becoming more powerful, which is beneficial to the green camp elections.
Doesn't Beijing understand that suppressing Taiwan will cause alienation of cross -strait emotions?However, when the Beijing decision makers believe that the identity on both sides of the strait is difficult to reply, the common political concept parties with the lack of strength in Taiwan, the United States is becoming more and more obvious, and the time is gradually not conducive to Beijing.When the response represents concessions, the more likely to the Beijing behavior will lack strategic patience and eager to respond.
This is the portrayal of the current situation on both sides of the strait.The DPP government hopes that the identity of Taiwan independence will gradually rise, and Beijing will inevitably respond. Neither parties will step on the brakes. As a result, conflict spiral increases.
(Author Zhang Yazhong, Professor of Political Science at the National Taiwan University and General President of Sun Wen School)
