China's current round of policy adjustment is not ＂big water＂ in 2015,

As the downward pressure on China's economy increased its consensus, the executive meeting of the State Council held on Monday released a signal of marginal relaxation of policy, emphasizing that active fiscal policies should be more active and launched various measures to support investment.Is this another 2015 or even 2008 that rely on infrastructure and real estate stimulation?#

the answer is negative.Analysts believe that compared with the previous rate cuts and references, there are only targeted reductions in this round. The currency does not have & ldquo;In the new project, it is expected that the infrastructure that has declined in the first half of the year can bottom out and rebound. When the external demand is uncertain, it can play a stabilizer.

& ldquo; Real estate is not released, and the financial leverage is not released, it will not be exactly similar to 2015.Guo Lei, chief macro analyst of Guangfa Securities, pointed out that there is a point of view that the policy will be worried that if the policy will worsen the economic structure, the pressure of receipts will be quickly formed.From the current point of view, this worry is not necessary.

He said in the report that this round did not let go of the real estate, and it is estimated that it will not be released until the formation of the long -term mechanism, and the direction of the real estate policy has not changed.The current purchase restrictions may gradually be seamlessly connected with the long -term mechanism represented by the supply housing+demand side of the supply housing+demand side, and it is unlikely to go back.

At the same time, this round is still in the environment of financial policy adjustment, and financial leverage is unlikely to rise.Under the environment of financial innovation in 2015, the financial markets showed excessive signs of leverage.This round of financial policy is still tight, the policy is vigilant against leverage, the new rules of asset management are still in the process of landing, and financial leverage is unlikely to rise generally.

Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang hosted a executive meeting of the State Council on Monday to deploy a better player of financial and financial policies? It requires fiscal and financial policies to work together to serve the economic real economy and macro situation.It is required to maintain stability of macro policies, active fiscal policies must be more active, stable monetary policy must be tight and moderate, insist on not engaged in & ldquo;

& ldquo; In the first half of the year, the decline in infrastructure growth was caused by the resonance of the capital party asset party. (The State Association's statement) will support investment in the second half of the year, but in terms of overall investment situation, it may not require too strong stimuli.& rdquo; Wu Yaping, director of the Institute of Institute of Investment and Reform Commission's Institute of Investment, said that the Central Government now emphasizes the key role of investment optimizing the supply structure and supplementary shortcomings, rather than the previous investment in investment in steady growth.

Under the State Frequently supporting policy incentives, the Chinese stock market and Shanghai variety index rose more than 1.6%on Tuesday to a new high of more than a month.Infrastructure stocks led the large market, and China Communications and China Railway Construction Ratal was a daily limit.

Economy

Wu Yaping pointed out that the National Frequently solved two points in terms of investment: first, maintaining moderate liquidity, the reality is that urban investment companies do not borrow new and old difficulty to pay back; secondEven if rectification has to continue to advance, it is more important to make the project's benefit.

For example, when encountering hidden debt and illegal projects, the local approach may be a bit radical. It may also stop lending because it is not allowed to take the policy strength, resulting in the half -printer project. Isn't the loss of the half -prinz project that stops?This (National Association) is actually a correction of the policy of the first half of the year.& rdquo;

In terms of supporting investment, the State Council stated that it has accelerated the issuance and use of special bonds of the RMB government government of 1.35 trillion yuan this year, and has achieved earlier results in promoting infrastructure projects in construction;Investment -oriented, investment return mechanisms are clear, and business potential is large.

At the same time, it is necessary to effectively guarantee the demand for project funds under construction, urge localities to revitalize financial stock funds, guide financial institutions to ensure the reasonable financing needs of the financing platform company in accordance with the principles of marketization, and to avoid the necessary funds and the project for the necessary projects under construction.Docking development and people's livelihood needs to promote construction and reserve a number of major projects.

Since the beginning of this year, China's infrastructure investment growth has declined steadily. The cumulative growth rate has fallen from the two digits at the beginning of the year to 7.3%of June-June, becoming the main factor that dragged down the growth rate of investment.Quick holding formed comparison.

Haitong Securities Economist Jiang Chao pointed out in the report that the growth rate of social financing in the first half of the year fell to 9.8%, dragging down the investment growth of 6%, with a relatively high growth rate of real estate investment, investment and manufacturing investmentThe growth rates have continued to slug.If the current state is maintained, it is estimated that the year -on -year growth rate of investment may decline to less than 5%. Compared with last year, the growth rate of investment in GDP will exceed 0.5 percentage points.

& ldquo; Considering that the impact of the trade war in the second half of the year will lead to a decline in exports. In the case of consumption monopoly, the government's policy of promulgating policy support for fixed assets is indeed understandable.& rdquo; He wrote.

Recently, an article on the Central Bank officials who criticized the active fiscal policy had caused an article that was not active in fiscal policies, which once triggered & ldquo; the central bank and the Ministry of Finance interviewed each other & rdquo; this Monday Bank accidentally launched an operation of 502 billion yuan for medium -term borrowing facilities (MLF).It is rare for the creation of the tool through the scale of MLF's net launch, further confirming that monetary policy turns pine, & ldquo; tightening credit & rdquo; marginal improvement.

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Infrastructure is expected to bottom out and rebound

Since the beginning of this year, one of the investment in Chinese economy & ldquo; three driving carriages & rdquo;Beginning slowly, infrastructure investment seemed to fall into the abyss.However, with the acceleration of the issuance of special bonds in the second half of the year, and the clean -up of government and social capital cooperation (PPP) projects, infrastructure is expected to bottom out to rebound.

& ldquo; The focus of this round of policy is active finance, and an important ending point is infrastructure investment.& rdquo; Jiang Chao of Haitong Securities said that it is expected that the central government will also accelerate the progress of expenditure. Considering the needs of Huimin's livelihood, public service facilities, environmental protection facilities and rural construction may become the focus.

He pointed out that the high growth of infrastructure investment in the past, a large part of the funds came from the out -of -surface shadow banks, such as infrastructure trusts, PPP financing, etc. Now the new asset management regulations clearly clearly cannot increase the scale of shadow banks, but the existing scale is not so fast.

& ldquo; This round of investing in infrastructure is two main entrances of local government special debt and financing platform loans. The former is 1.35 trillion yuan determined at the beginning of the year.The constraints are actually difficult to expand significantly.Therefore, infrastructure investment is just the bottom, but it cannot be done quickly.& rdquo; He said.

Li Chao, a macro analyst of Huatai Securities, said that at least 1 trillion or more special bonds were not issued.In the future, the accelerated issuance meeting of special bonds raises funds for local infrastructure. At present, special bonds are mainly divided into soil storage bonds, highway bonds and sheds. These three areas will be an important direction for infrastructure forces.

In order to prevent local debt risks, the Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have increased the cleanup of PPP projects this year.According to the Ministry of Finance, as of April 23, 2018, a total of 1,695 projects were cleaned up in various places, involving an investment of 1.8 trillion yuan; 2,005 rectification projects were reported, and investment involved was 3.1 trillion yuan.

According to domestic media Caixin reports on Tuesday, the Development and Reform Commission of Sichuan, Jilin, Qinghai and other provinces issued a document at the end of June and early July, requiring the specifications to verify the PPP entry project, strengthen the supervision of stock projects, and avoid systemic risks.

& ldquo; The PPP Kuqingli of the Development and Reform Commission mainly serves risk prevention.& rdquo; Wu Yaping said that there are historical reasons for platform issues. It is not realistic to sell huge platform debt in the short term, and it is not realistic, and the reasonable financing needs of platform companies should be moderately met to ensure market liquidity.

The report of the FOST Consultation and Research Department pointed out that the infrastructure investment was slowed down from 2013-2017. From January to May this year, infrastructure investment increased by only 5%year-on-year.A cliff -type stall appeared in infrastructure, which is the result of a number of policies that have continued to exert and influence the superposition: coal power de -capacity leads to negative growth of power investment; PPP projects are cleaned up, and the short -term impact is large;The accelerated issuance meeting of the item bonds raises funds for local infrastructure. At present, special bonds are mainly divided into soil storage bonds, highway bonds and sheds. These three areas will be an important direction for infrastructure.

The report of the FOST Consultation and Research Department pointed out that the infrastructure investment was slowed down from 2013-2017. From January to May this year, infrastructure investment increased by only 5%year-on-year.A cliff -like stall appeared in infrastructure, which is the result of a number of policies that have continued to make efforts and influenced overlay: coal power de -capacity leads to negative growth in power investment; PPP projects are cleaned up, and short -term impacts are large;The new rules of asset management blocked various & ldquo; wiping balls & rdquo; financing.

However, the report pointed out that the adverse factors affecting infrastructure are alleviating, the issuance of local new bonds has accelerated, the PPP project restarts, the rhythm of financial supervision has slowed down, the authorities are down to low medium- and long -term interest rates, and the project approval is accelerating. Therefore, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to rebound.

Chinas current round of policy adjustment is not ＂big water＂ in 2015,