Zheng Weibin: Beijing misgives the US -Taiwan relationship?

Current affairs perspective

Since 2016, Beijing has changed its strategy to Taiwan, softer, softer, harder and harder.The soft ones introduced more directly to the people of Taiwan & ldquo; 31 & rdquo; Hui Taiwan; the hard is the normalization of main military aircraft around Taiwan, and compressing Taiwan's international space from the international level, which has continued to decrease from the Republic of China and diplomatic countries.The door to the event meeting of international organizations has been narrowed.How much these measures have caused some pressure on Tsai Ing -wen and the DPP, so there will be expectations of expectations & ldquo; Xi Caihui & rdquo; sound.

At the same time, many uncertain behaviors of US President Trump have also brought new uncertainty to the development of cross -strait relations, and may weaken Beijing's effectiveness of Taiwan's strategy.How to evaluate the direction of the current US -Taiwan relations is a question that Beijing must consider under the background of the Sino -US trade war.

Evaluating the changes in US -Taiwan relations is not the willingness to develop relations between the United States and Taiwan.The result of the game of the three parties will be directly reflected in the changes in the current status of cross -strait.In other words, how the three parties hope that the current status of both sides of the Taiwan Strait will develop or change will be the benchmark line for evaluating US -Taiwan relations.

Although the United States has continuously upgraded the relations between the United States and Taiwan since Trump took office, such as the "Taiwan Travel Law" and "National Defense Authorization Act", etc., they have favored the relationship between the two parties.But does these measures mean that the United States will change Sino -US relations and completely deny the principles of & ldquo; No. 1 China policy & rdquo;?If the answer is negative, no matter how developed the US -Taiwan relations develops, it is impossible to develop towards the substantive stage.In other words, the United States will not recognize Taiwan as an independent sovereign country, because once this bottom line is crossed, the status quo of the Taiwan Strait will inevitably be maintained, and the mainland is almost inevitable.

Under this prerequisite, Trump continues to enhance the US -Taiwan relations. The greater possibility is due to the & ldquo; maintenance & rdquo; to avoid the strength of the mainland that leads to the entire situation of the Taiwan Strait.Under the state.Based on this, it can be believed that Trump's move is based on the passive response of the mainland's background in Taiwan's policy changes to avoid the unreasonable status quo of the two sides of the strait.

Therefore, even if the two parties in the United States regard China as a strategic competitor in the United States, the risks that upgrade the US -Taiwan relations to the situation in Taiwan Strait are also required by the US government.On the whole, I tend to think that the United States will still maintain the status quo of the Taiwan Strait and avoid changing the status quo on both sides of the strait.Among them, it naturally includes the United States itself.

However, although the United States will continue its consistent Taiwan Strait policy and avoid the current situation of cross -strait relations, in Beijing, it is also necessary to realize that the three parties in China and the United States are not conducive to mainland China.The most disadvantageed in Beijing.

From 2000 to 2008, when Bush became politically, he was very disgusted with the actions of Taiwan President Chen Shui -bian.Chen Shui -bian's & ldquo; On the one hand, a country & rdquo; on the argument that it has created great trouble and uncertainty for cross -strait relations, it has become a bomb that may explode at any time at any time.Based on the strategic needs of the United States at that time, Bush Bush eventually joined forces to suppress Taiwan.

When Obama became the president of the United States, the situation was different.Although Obama continues the policy that does not change the status quo of the Taiwan Strait, it has also begun its strategy of & ldquo; Asia -Pacific rebalancing & rdquo; to weaken the chain response brought by China's rise.Fortunately, the president of Taiwan at this time was Ma Ying -jeou, and its policy of & ldquo;In terms of economic and trade relations, the two sides of the strait are on the avenue of rapid integration.

Now, whether it is US President Trump or Taiwanese President Tsai Ing -wen, it is not friendly to the mainland, and can even be regarded as the two offensives of the two to counter the mainland.In other words, the Sino -US -Taiwan triangle relations in Taiwan have been the worst and most & ldquo; disadvantaged & rdquo;What's more, under the state of fierce & ldquo; Battle & rdquo; China and the United States are more linked to the three parties of China and the United States and Taiwan.

The author is Beijing Freelance