Trial Time

Since the opening of the US trade war in junior high school in July， the two sides have not yet released a clear signal of the problem solving the problem in the short term.However， at the press conference of the China -Europe Summit held a few days ago， Prime Minister of the State Council of China， Li Keqiang， once said that the Sino -US trade war should be resolved by the two countries‘ negotiations.Interesting to seek re -negotiation to resolve the dispute.

The author believes that although China and the United States are the only way to solve the problem through negotiations， the current adjustment of the two parties is the most important.

The United States is the perpetrator of the Sino -US trade war. It should take the initiative to converge the trading of trade bullying， especially from all aspects of its own economic development model， industrial structure model， US dollar settlement model， and residents‘ consumption savings model.Internal reasons， instead of one direction accusing him of accusing other countries with the so -called “ unequal “ trade dominates the United States “ cheap “

US President Trump should understand that economic development is closely related to changes in market， consumption changes， and trade changes， and rapidly developing economies such as China are at the forefront of this kind of change. This is not China‘s fault， nor is it globalizationThe fault is the inevitable result of the general development trend.Trump must also know that after the World War II， the international economic and trade rules (including trade， finance， arbitration， etc.)， which have been used for more than 70 years， were almost established under the direct leadership of the United States. The United States is the biggest beneficiary of these rules，The biggest manipulator and the biggest caregiver.

But when the US economy has declined and other economies develop rapidly， the United States revealed “ backward competitors “ unbalanced mentality， it is also normal.The problem is that if the United States tries to force unilateralism and trade protectionism， it is strongly buying and selling， and even trying to use trade protection to prevent other countries from developing.The author believes that Trump‘s priority is to re -evaluate the trade policy and formulate a new policy plan for China， which is probably more important than adjusting the imbalance mentality.

China was the victim of this trade war.In order to protect their own interests， it is resolutely to fight， but it is also self -explanatory.Therefore， China also seems to need to face the complex situation to adjust the mentality and turn passive as the initiative.In summary， China needs to adjust three mentality:

The first is to adjust the “ “ alliance and fighting mentality “

Alliance is a kind of confrontation， which is to achieve mutual assistance measures to achieve a balance or defeat opponents.Recently， China has actively developed economic and trade relations with Europe and the European Union， including Li Keqiang to Bulgaria to attend “ the 8th China -Central Eastern European National Economic and Trade Forum and RDQUO;， then went to Germany to participate in “， The two countries jointly signed a joint statement for the “Being Leaders and Partners for the Construction of a Better World“， and then to the and ldquo in Beijing.The intention of borderism and trade protectionist challenges is very obvious.

As a result， “ Central -Europe should work together in the form of alliances to fight against the United States “The author once pointed out in a clumsy work that the way to borrow the European Union and “ alliance “ not only lacks theoretical basis， but also cannot achieve the expected results， but it will also make things more complicated.China and the United States should resolve contradictions within the scope of the two countries through bilateral negotiations (the “Sino -US trade war tests the ability of the two countries‘ crisis management and control capacity“， and see the “Lianhe Zaobao“ on July 12).

At the joint press conference of Li Keqiang and the President of the European Council on July 17 and the European Council President Rongccs， Li Keqiang has clearly stated that the problem of Sino -US trade is a bilateral issue. China and the European Union have launched communication and cooperation “Third party “.In fact， the Chinese government has also agreed that the author‘s views earlier.

In fact， the European Union itself also opposed to deal with the United States with China.Jaye， chairman of the European Economic and Social Commission， said in an interview with the Hong Kong media that although China has called for joint anti -Trump‘s trade protectionist policy， the European Union is unwilling to fight against the United States with China (see Hong Kong on July 6 “Hong Kong“South China Morning Post“).It can be seen that the idea of “ alliance system beauty “ the idea is just the wishful thinking of some people， it looks beautiful， but it is actually very loud.

It is worth noting that Japan -the European Union signed “ there was a largest trade agreement in history， and the two parties exempted tariffs from nearly 99%， creating the world‘s largest trading zone.Japan -the European Union did not declare “ Alliance “ but the actual actions of both parties are the best response to US trade protectionism.

The second is to adjust your mouth “ both defeats and wounds， no winner “， but the self -consolation mentality “

As we all know， there will be no winners in the trade war “ eventually ended with “ double losing “Judging from the simple figures of bilateral trade in China and the United States last year， China may be more disadvantaged.According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on January 12 this year， the total value of Sino -US trade in 2017 was 3.95 trillion yuan.Among them， China exported to the United States of 2.91 trillion yuan and imported 1.04 trillion yuan from the United States (statistics from the US Department of Commerce， US $ 130.37 billion to China， US $ 505.60 billion from China).

Regardless of the data， if the United States pays tariffs on US $ 250 billion in imports of imports from China， and China ’s “ equivalent， equal value “ in fact， China does not have a US $ 250 billion of the United States.How to counter the source of imported goods?Of course， there are also public opinion that “ can sell US dollar government bonds “ fight against the United States， but if China adopts this method， there is no doubt that the “ trade war “; He “ Economic War “， the consequences of doing so are difficult to evaluate， and the crackdown on bilateral relations between China and the United States may also be unbearable.

Therefore， when China repeatedly emphasizes “ both defeats and no winners “ obviously should not give people this position that seems to be “ winners “China should abandon the internal speech “ crisis “， while the publicity is “ it should not be “ two books “China and the United States must realize that if “ trade war “ Continuous expansion will bring heavy consequences to the two countries， and it will not be limited to the level of economic and trade.The two countries must immediately start “ crisis control “ procedures to avoid greater losses.

The third is to adjust the first shot of the first shot “ “ Xiaoyong‘s mentality “.

Confucius You said: “ The benevolent is not worried， the person is not confused， the brave is not afraid of “In the Sino -US trade war， it is the right step to decisively take action to defend national interests.But “ Yong “ often connects with “ Zhi “ therefore， there is “ Smart Yong Shuangquan “

At present， in the face of the aggressive American unilateralism and protectionist offensive， of course， China will not just be “ there are bravery “ but the key is “ “Where is it?The Southern Song thinker Zhu Xi divided “ Yong “ as “ Xiaoyong “ and “ Dadong “Mencius Collection says: “ Xiaoyong， blood gas; Da Yong， the meaning of the righteousness “ that is， Xiaoyong is just a momentary impulse to blood， and Da Yong needs morality to inspire.If China tries “ peer product value “ counterattack the United States as the unique choice to solve problems， and lacks other corresponding means， then “ Trade war “

Of course， China has adopted a strategy of active attack in order to reverse the current status of products that rely on the current US market.“Sun Tzu‘s Art of War“ has training， “ good warriors， to people， not people “China is currently working hard to develop “ third -party markets “， strengthen economic and trade cooperation with Europe， ASEAN (Asia Gyan) and “ BRICS “ in addition to finding more buyers for Chinese export products，Make up for the reduction of new alternative to imported products from imports from the United States.

Obviously， mentality adjustments should be adjusted first.If China insists on promoting and deepening market reform， optimizing the industrial structure， and broadening overseas markets， China is discarded in this “ trading war “opportunity.

The author is a senior commentator of Phoenix Satellite TV.