Han Yonghong: The trade war is dependent on each other

Early & nbsp; & nbsp; Northern Remember

When the United States announced that it would impose tariffs on China's US -US -USS -US -USS -US -transit products, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to & ldquo; shocked & rdquo; and then stated that it would appeal to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

& ldquo; Shocking & rdquo; The word expresses the strong unacceptable Chinese behavior of China.However, from the perspective of various objective situations, in the context of the intensification of Sino -US trade frictions and other aspects of this year, the US sacrifice of 100 billion US dollars in taxation list should actually be expected, which is not an accident.

Since the beginning of this year, the economic and trade team of both China and the United States has undergone at least three rounds of negotiations. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has twice to the United States. The US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin led a group to visit China, but the two sides have never been able to compromise.During the period, there were once signs that the United States & ldquo; I won't hit & rdquo; but in the end the United States still fired the first trading war at the beginning of this month. China also took revenge measures.Avoiding a person with a short soldier, he woke up like a dream.

So far, although there is a legend that the two countries may restart the negotiations, in fact, neither the two parties show signs of concessions. Most analysis believes that trade frictions may last for a while.In China, it was once announced that the public opinion of the epic -level & rdquo; the epic & rdquo; after the ZTE incident, people began to reflect on how to make up for the technical shortcomings.

To this day, people no longer discuss how the trade war can avoid the problem, but to what extent this trade battle is?Will it evolve into a hot battle?What are the essential reasons and ultimate strategic purpose of the United States to launch a trade war?

Chen Gang, assistant director of the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore, put forward a point of view in a comment published in the Lianhe Zaobao yesterday: This is a sudden, but it is not very surprising.The inevitable product of interdependence is highly political.

Chen Gang quoted the theoretical framework in the theoretical framework of the well -known American scholar Robert & Middot; Kuhan, Han and Joseph & Middot; Nai's 1970s book "The Mutual Dependence of Power" pointed out that when the dependence between the two countries is highly different, one party can use this dependence relationship.Let's solve the differences between the two parties on related or other issues.

Two or three months ago, at the beginning of the Sino -US trade friction, many analysis believed that China and the United States were highly dependent on each other, thereby judging that the trade war could not be hit.The reality revealed later showed that between China and the United States, it was actually a highly indifferent dependence, and this dependence may not only exist in the trade field.Conversely, the current international order framework and the global economic governance mechanism are generally the result of the establishment or reinforcement of US leadership, including the international currency system, the general trade agreement, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and a series of bilateral security in Asia in AsiaIn the alliance relations, China has more or less needed and dependent on this system.

Since the reform and opening up in the 1980s, China has developed in the existing international order. In the United States, China is & ldquo;As the beneficiary of this order, China has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of overthrowing this system. Its claim is to reform, improve and supplement this system. As China's national strength rises rapidly, this is of course the inevitable result.

However, the original international security and economic system may not be able to withstand China's economy with such a huge economy and the growing political influence & ldquo; to join, which leads to the instability of the original system.Moreover, China will also generate inertia & mdash; & mdash; unless it is willing to continue to be highly attached to this system, it will have the motivation to get rid of.

To this day, the problem of many people in the Sino -US trade war is: Where does China go from?Can it be relatively decoupled from the US -led economic and trade system?For example, in terms of economics, technology, and military care, the basic skills will be established, and the basic system will be established, and a large economy that mainly depends on the domestic demand market and has its own technical system?If it is impossible to be decoupled, another way out is how to learn how to survive in the United States -led system, in short, & ldquo; Learn to be the second child & rdquo;.

The above two roads are not completely contradictory.In the short term, China responded to a low -key trade war, and at the same time announced that it would be more powerful to the outside world, protect intellectual property rights, and introduce international competition. On the one hand, it can alleviate the contradiction between China and the United States.; Reform and opening up & rdquo; Being able to continue for years, China will eventually form a domestic demand market with a huge middle class and consumption power.Such a China will undoubtedly become very attractive to American companies and capital. The highly unequal economic and trade dependence relationship between China and the United States is expected to be improved, which can exactly constitute the condition that China has relatively decoupled the United States.

From this perspective, the contradictions between China and the United States are not inevitable in the long run, as long as China can & ldquo; do its own & rdquo; and to improve the economy of people's livelihood and develop the domestic market without mind.& ldque;This is why, although the trade war is cloudy, many countries in the world are still actively playing a good relationship with China.In the crisis, people can see more clearly & mdash; & mdash; in the middle and long term, the rise of a 1 billion population -level consumer market is still very hopeful and even difficult to stop.