The Taiwan card of the Sino -US trade war is not in Taiwan

Judging from the recent trend of US -Taiwan relations, the taste of the United States has become heavier.The U.S. Institute has applied for the dispatch of the Marine Corps to enter the AIT of Taipei, and announced that the US ships have passed the Taiwan Strait and 108 M1A2 tanks that are known as the surface to Taiwan to Taiwan.Turn to Taiwan.These development shows that the purpose of playing Taiwan has become more and more confusing, and the fate of Taiwan is becoming increasingly unavailable.

& ldquo; Xi Lianhui & rdquo; successfully held, Chinese leaders published & ldquo; four resolute & rdquo; reiterated its principles, positions, practices and goals for Taiwan's policy, but did not target the US & ldquo; Taiwanese cards & rdquo;View.We don't know & ldquo; Xi Lianhui & rdquo; Has the closed -door talks that is touched by this is related to the fate of Taiwan, but the Kuomintang has stated that Lien Chan has nothing to do with the Kuomintang.comminicate.

When discussing & ldquo; Taiwan card & rdquo; there are two questions that must be considered.First, the current Sino -US trade war should be regarded in the replica of the United States in the United States in the 1980s, or is the replication of the Soviet Union's surrounding behavior during the Cold War?The former belongs to the category of economy, trade and finance, and the latter.If it is the former, Taiwan is not important, & ldquo; Taiwan card & rdquo; it does not make much sense; if it is the latter, there is the next problem.

Second, if the essence of the Sino -US trade war is a & ldquo; existing hegemony & rdquo; Faced with the rising power of the rise & rdquo; in Taiwan, the role of Taiwan is used for & ldquo; warning & rdquo; or & ldquo;Stimulation & rdquo; The mainland is forced to take it?For the former, the United States only shows that Taiwan is its sphere of influence, and Taiwan cards are defensive tools to safeguard the interests of East Asia. If it is the latter, the United States use Taiwan to stimulate or provoke the mainland, and use Taiwan as a promotion of it as a promotion of it as a way to promote it.The aggressive tool of the strategic trap, this practice, forced the mainland to increase the threat to Taiwan and increase the hostility of the two sides of the strait; the focus seduces the mainland to provoke a cross -strait conflict and make Beijing ride tigers to fall into mud.

When this & ldquo; curbing China & rdquo; strategy formation, there are several more problems.First, how Beijing interprets the strategic intention of the United States, deemed it as & ldquo; warning & rdquo; or & ldquo; excitement & rdquo;?How will Beijing react?Will there be enough strategic determination, or will certain actions of the US or Tsai Ing -wen government forced it to force it?Third, the United States has no intention of raising the Taiwan card from & ldquo; warning & rdquo; to & ldquo; stimulus & rdquo;?Fourth, even if there is no intention, when the hostile and opposing atmosphere is formed, the phenomenon of spiral rising will be automatically generated. Is it that it will eventually become & ldquo; stimulate & rdquo;?

The decision makers think they are rational.The American player is not hurting the U.S. military and not being caught in the muddy mud in Taiwan, but if the United States believes that playing Taiwanese cards can force the mainland to face a dilemma, that is, if Beijing does not shoot, the mainland leadership will not be able to face politics.Correct anti -Taiwan independence public opinion pressure, and weakening the legitimacy of its regime, like the Global Times of the mainland, once called on & ldquo;Essence& rdquo; Once you shoot, cross -strait relations cannot look back.

The so -called & ldquo; Lebanese Huahua & rdquo; that is, & ldquo; Civil War & rdquo; Taiwan will fall into greater recognition turmoil. This is the thinking of some people within the mainland.Today, the United States also thinks that Taiwan ’s & ldquo; Lebanon & rdquo; or & ldquo; Afghanistan & rdquo; can make the mainland fall into a strategic mud, so facing global political, economic, moral sanctions or pressure, forcing its image to be ugly and slow down.Or the road to the mainland's & ldquo; the road of great national rejuvenation & rdquo;, is this not a rational tactic in the war of the United States in its & ldquo; maintaining hegemony & rdquo;The United States' strengthening of Taiwan's tank combat capabilities does not seem to exclude the possibility of fighting in Taiwan.

This is the crisis of Taiwan: What point to the United States will play & ldquo; Taiwan card & rdquo;How will the mainland react?Taiwan did not speak.

(Author Zhang Yazhong, Professor of Political Science at the National Taiwan University and General President of Sun Wen School)