Jin Canrong: The next danger of the United States in the trade war is Taiwan

According to the Taiwan Lianhe Daily, Jin Canrong, deputy dean of the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, expects that the first wave of tariffs on the first wave of exported tariffs on the 6th may be unavoidable.He pointed out that the US strategic community has collectively recognized it. In the long run, China is the only threat in the United States, and the trade war is only the first card played by the United States.wait.Among them, the Taiwanese card will be a very dangerous card.

In a speech in Shanghai on the 4th, Jin Canrong said that the United States had a trade war against China this time mainly for economic, political, and strategic reasons.In terms of economy, China does have a lot of existence on the United States. According to the US statement, the amount reached US $ 375.2 billion last year.

On the other hand, the industrial upgrade that China has begun to promote, that is, & ldquo; Made in China 2025 & rdquo; planning makes the United States feel pressure.Therefore, the economic purpose of the United States is to reduce the trade deficit between China and the United States, and it is essentially to prevent the upgrading of China's industries, because once the successful upgrade of China's industry, it will fundamentally challenge the US hegemony.

The political reason is to ensure that the Republican Party can win the election at the end of this year, and the first is to transfer the focus of transferring & ldquo; Tong Russia & rdquo;

Jin Canrong described that Trump was smart and grasped extremely accurate and dared to adventure, but the level of cultural level was not high.By stir -fried landfielders, followed by buildings, and also casinos.Kim Can Rong said that Trump is not a regular businessman, but a speculator. He is weird compared to his 44 US presidents in front of him.

Jin Canrong said that if the Republican Party lost in the mid -term, under the Congress Cup Ge, Trump's subsequent term will be doomed, & ldquo; there will be no drama & rdquo; therefore, he must do something with him & ldquo;The result is the fastest.Therefore, from March this year, in addition to launching a trade war in China, withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear agreement, or unexpectedly to conduct peace talks with North Korea, this string of diplomatic actions is based on the aforementioned purpose.

As for strategic reasons, Jin Canrong said that from about mid -2015, the US strategic community has failed to have the past policy of China, and the policy of exchanges has not caused China to be democratic, but has begun to change its attitude towards China.Coupled with the leaders of the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China in 2012, they changed their diplomacy in the past & ldquo; Tao Guang & rdquo; to become positive diplomacy, and the United States began to hostile to China.

The overall strategy of the United States' strategic community to China can be seen from the three reports issued by the military from the end of last year to the early this year and the two reports issued by the political circles.Kim Can Rong believes that the United States is currently collectively recognized regardless of the division of the United States and the opposition. In the long run, the only threat facing the United States is China.

Qian Qichen, former Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council of the Mainland, once described that Sino -US relations & ldquo;But Jin Canrong believes that in the foregoing background, the future Sino -US relations, & ldquo;

Jin Canrong said that the trade war is the first card played by the United States to China. Another card that is played at the same time is to render & ldquo; China threat theory & rdquo; and discredit China everywhere.The same thing that the United States does & ldquo; soft power & rdquo;, China is called & ldquo;

He described that the United States to play these two cards at the same time is equivalent to the unit in the unit. The leader has a view on you. In addition to deducting your bonuses every month, every meeting will order your name, corrupt your image and isolation.

Jin Canrong expects that there will be a few cards in the United States: Taiwan, South China Sea, Human Rights, and North Korea.In the future, once Sino -Japanese relations ease to a certain degree, the United States will definitely come out & ldquo; pick things & rdquo;, to play the East Sea card, and will definitely go to the Indian Ocean & ldquo;

Among them, for the United States to play the Taiwan card, Jin Canrong said that the mainland can actually wait for solving the Taiwan issue, because the time is & rdquo;However, he believes that the problem is now the problem that the United States and Taiwan cannot wait, and if Taiwan independence and right wing of the United States are going to make trouble, & ldquo; quite easy to happen & rdquo;.

In his opinion, the trouble of the South China Sea in the future will be greater than Taiwan.Kim Can Rong said that in the Taiwan issue, it may not necessarily have different strategic impacts with the mainland & ldquo; desperately & rdquo; but the strategic impact of the South China Sea is different, and the United States will definitely be desperately from China.

The United States announced earlier tariffs on imported goods in China. The first wave of US $ 34 billion will take effect on July 6. Jin Canrong expects that the first wave of trade war between China and the United States may not be avoided.But & ldquo; After playing, maybe both sides will hurt a little, calm down, and then talk about it.& rdquo; He estimated that the two sides finally & ldquo; big fight & rdquo; should be avoided, because the losses of both parties are large, and the United States cannot take advantage.

However, if the bilateral trade war is upgraded in the future, Jin Canrong believes that there are a few of the mainland to use it to use. First, it is to comprehensively prohibit the export of rare earths to the United States.He pointed out that 90%of the world's rare earth is produced in China. All high -end chip manufacturing must be used in rare earth. Once the Sino -US trade war is fully launched, China can fully block the export of rare earths in the United States.

Secondly, the opportunity to focus on selling the U.S. Treasury and various US corporate bonds held in China.Another real & ldquo; Ace & rdquo;

For example, Kim Can Rong said that Buick, a subsidiary of the United States, sold at US $ 39 billion in the United States last year, but sales in China reached 42 billion U.S. dollars. It is the world's largest market.It has to fall half.Others include: daily chemical products such as iPhone and Procter & Gamble, etc., and sales in the Chinese market are not low.

Jin Canrong expects that there will be many frictions in China and the United States in the next ten years, but China must adhere to the principles of & ldquo; do not break & rdquo; to maintain restraint and avoid unnecessary stimulus to the United States.In the long run, the United States may eventually accept the fact that China has risen.

Kim Can Rong believes that in the future, China and the United States are most likely to maintain & ldquo; functional partnership & rdquo; or & ldquo; limited partnership & rdquo;, that is, the establishment of a mechanism of both parties to find possible cooperation points as possible, and another set of mechanisms are specifically controlledBiomedical differences, especially for some issues that cannot be solved temporarily.He emphasized that this is a way out of Sino -US relations and a direction worthy of hard work.