After seven years in the foreign exchange market in the shore, the night trading time was extended again.However, due to the limitation of not many demand and compliance, this measure aimed at the launch of the internationalization of RMB, and the market response was temporarily deserted.
According to Bloomberg, since the first trading day in 2023, the daily transaction at the coastal foreign exchange market was extended from 23:30 Beijing time to 3 am the next day.Bloomberg calculated based on the data of the Foreign Exchange Trading Center. Within the first three and a half hours of the first three and a half hours of the first day (3rd) on Tuesday (3rd), the total transaction volume of the US dollar was 132 million U.S. dollars, only 29.616 billion U.S. dollars throughout the day.0.45%.
This may not be surprised.Foreign exchange traders said that only a few of the few Chinese -funded banks with branches in Europe and the United States have the ability to stabilize to participate in night trading.On the one hand, the domestic institutions of Chinese banks face the restrictions on the demand for passenger trams during Europe and the United States and the tension of people at night; on the other hand, foreign banks in China not only have similar limitations, but also their overseas institutions are also subject to joint control.It is unable to directly participate in the coastal transactions.The trader also said that no large transactions from U.S. -funded banks had been seen during the extension period on the first day.
Zhao Zhixuan, the chief Asian foreign exchange and interest rate strategist of Bloomberg Industry Research, believes: "You may need to run for a period of time to see the impact of extending the time during the shore transaction," currently overseas customers can directly trade offshore RMB,Even if there are customers who have shore transactions or actual needs, it is estimated that most of them also have the Asian trading counter, which can be operated during Asia.
From the perspective of the RMB exchange rate pricing power, Zhao Zhixuan believes that the current price transmission in Europe and the United States may still be more transmitted from offshore to the shore exchange rate."If there is still a relatively revolutionary advancement, it may be further extended to the coastal transaction period to consistent with the offshore transactions, paving the way for CNY and CNH, but this is estimated that it will not happen in the short term."
Although the extension of the transaction period on the first day was slightly deserted, the annual transaction volume of RMB on Tuesday has significantly recovered from the end of last year, reaching a level of nearly US $ 30 billion (S $ 40.183 billion) throughout the day.The trader said that at the beginning of the year, the bank's self -operated construction of the position was re -built, and the transactions became active. The Australian and New Bank reported on Tuesday also pointed out that as China withdraws from the dynamic and zero epidemic prevention and control measures, it is expected that there will be an exporter's backlog of foreign exchange settlement demand before the Spring Festival.Release.
Since 2016, the end of the RMB foreign exchange market in the shore has been extended from 16:30 to 23:30, and its transaction has also encountered a small transaction and poor liquidity in the early stage of the transaction.After several years of cultivation, the proportion of the transaction volume of the whole day of the day has gradually increased.The People's Bank of China once said that this move will provide global investors more convenience and further enhance the attraction of RMB assets.
As a rough comparison, Bloomberg calculated based on statistical data disclosed by the International Lleel Clearance Bank and the Tokyo Foreign Exchange Market Committee.The proportion of transactions other than time period accounts for 63%.
This may indicate that in the long run, the trading potential of the RMB foreign exchange market is expected.Of course, the Japanese yen, as a developed market currency and has both risk aversion attributes, is very different from the development of the RMB market.Considering the lack of transaction statistics from offshore RMB, and the management of the actual demand principles of speculation on the shore, the renminbi has made the transaction data other than the working hours of the shore in China does not have sufficient representativeness.
