Twenty special articles: ＂Two Establishment＂ Navigation does not have the same way

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (the 20th National Congress) officially ended on Saturday (October 22). Looking back at the political report of the Party Congress, the most critical spindle is "Chinese -style modernization".Chinese officials have even proposed the current central task, which is to comprehensively promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese -style modernization; in the next five years, it will be a critical period for comprehensive construction of a socialist modern state.He also said that Chinese -style modernization provides new choices for human realization.

This statement has caused international scholars and experts to discuss in the past week.Many analysts believe that as the Chinese Communist Party officially proposes "Chinese -style modernization", it means that China must fully get out of a new road different from the West, and the struggle between the Chinese and Western systems may be more severe.

After the opening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on October 16, many academic institutions and think tanks in Taiwan also held symposiums to analyze the 20th National Congress.

Anthony Saich, director of ASH Center, the famous Chinese expert in the United States and the Chief of the Kennedy Government College of Harvard University, pointed out on the 18th when attending the forum on the 18th that China is the biggest beneficiary of globalization, and now it is even more attempt to try toBecome the leader and maker of the global rules, not only the Rule Taker.

He believes that the twenty major shows that the CCP's policy continues rather than changes, and Beijing also clearly stated that it will continue to obtain the leadership of international organizations and institutions to lead the international order, especially in some US aviation, telecommunications, telecommunications,, telecommunications, telecommunications, and telecommunications, telecommunications, telecommunications, and telecommunications, telecommunications, and telecommunications, and telecommunications, telecommunications, and telecommunications, and telecommunications, and telecommunications, and telecommunications, telecommunications, and telecommunications, and telecommunications, telecommunications, and telecommunications, and telecommunications.Agriculture and other fields, and this formulates regulatory standards for global public products.

Saiqi research and judge that China will reduce dependence on the West as soon as possible in terms of economy, finance, technology, etc. in the future, such as trying to accelerate the internationalization of the RMB, the establishment of the China International Energy Exchange, and the establishment of a cross -border banking payment system.

Huang Qiongyi, a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of Taiwan Politburo, also mentioned at the symposium of the International Research Center of the Political Relations on the 17th that Beijing has actively promoted the "Chinese governance model" to developing countries in recent years.The concept of "region", reshape the existing international community order.

On the other hand, the 20th report described that China must be "dangerous, plan ahead, and prepare for the major test of high waves or even stormy waves" in the next five years. ThereforeIn spirit, "don't believe in evil, don't be afraid of ghosts, don't be afraid of pressing".

Scholars: In response to the internal and external challenges, China needs strong organization and leadership

Wang Xinxian, a professor -in -chief professor specially appointed by the East Asia Institute, pointed out that from the perspective of the 20th National Congress report, China is facing the starting point of the great national rejuvenation and the starting point of a strong socialist modernization country, and it is at a unintelligible change in a century. Therefore, it is necessary to be strong.Organization and leadership leads the Chinese nation to revival. "And this powerful organization is the Chinese government and powerful leaders."

This analysis has also been verified in the discussion of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in the past week.

The third historical resolution passed in November last year proposed the "two establishment". The specific content was "the core of establishing the Chinese official comrades' central government, the core position of the whole party, and establishing the official socialist thought of Chinese characteristics in the new era of China.Guidance status.

According to the China Central Television reported on the 17th, when members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China participated in the group discussing the 20th National Congress report, except for Chinese officials, the remaining 24 members of the Politburo emphasized "two establishment" when speaking.

In addition, Tian Peiyan, deputy director of the Policy Research Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, also described at a 20th press conference that Chinese officials are "the outstanding figures produced in this great era, the leaders of the people who are returning from the hope", and "two establishment" is the "two establishment" is "The major political achievements achieved in the new era of the Communist Party of China.

Zhong Yanlin, the director of the Political East Asian Institute, who specializes in the history and ideology of the Communist Party of China, analyzed that the subtext of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is "the historical journey of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation must go on, and the Chinese official and his ideological guidance cannot be left."" ".He believes that although the "great leader" of Mao Zedong, the late leader of the Communist Party of China, is the second only to Mao, which is enough to lay a solid political foundation for the Chinese official delay.

Zhang Deng, director of the Department of Political Science, Taiwan University, pointed out that compared with the 19th National Congress, the two words of the 20th National Congress mentioned the two words of "reform and opening up", which reduced by about 50%.Improve, govern, improve, improve, innovation "and other words.

He believes that from the perspective of the CCP's context, the "reform" in the past means that many things are not confident and do not do enough, so we must take the Fa on others."China Model" also means that the 20th National Congress is an important process of "Deng (Xiaoping) models fading out, and the example of Xi (Jin Ping)".

Twenty post -economic prevention and solution difficulties

It is unspeakable that after the 20th National Congress, waiting for the CCP's reasons to be Qing Haiyan, but internal affairs such as the undercurrent economic downside, repeated epidemic, and the challenges of the big country that is stunned and continued to heat up.

It is worth noting that during the 20th period of the 20th period, China rarely postponed a series of major economic indicators such as domestic GDP (GDP) in the third quarter.

Although Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, emphasized at the 20th press conference on the 17th that the economy in the third quarter was significantly picked up, and there were still many analysis concerns. Beijing may be postponed because of poor economic data. This will be postponed.Exhaust the panic caused by China's economic recession.

Faced with the increasingly severe economic downward pressure, the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China still emphasizes that we must focus on promoting high -quality development, unshakable and development of public ownership economy and guiding non -public ownership economy development, and insist on the focus of the development of the economy to develop the economyPut in the real economy.

In response, Liu Mengjun, director of the First Institute of the Chinese Institute of Economics of Taiwan, analyzed that emphasizing that high -quality development means that in the future, officials may gradually avoid the growth of quantities when discussing the economy, but began to discuss the growth of qualitative quality.

He also believes that at least in the next five years, the overall economic strategy of mainland China will highlight the real economy, especially first -level industries and secondary industries, which will be relatively reserved for the third -level industry service economy.

However, Liu Mengjun pointed out that the 20 major reports faced by many economies did not give specific answers.For example, how to integrate public ownership and non -public ownership;The achievements of economic achievements are at the same time worrying about monopoly; how to avoid returning poverty, as well as problems such as urban poverty and family poverty; "common prosperity" has not been explained.

Therefore, he believes that Beijing will face huge financial debt risks in the future, inaccurate the promotion of economic growth, reduced population dividends and aging population structure, and more involved in private enterprises.Long -term financial pressure is also a problem that Beijing must solve.

The prevention and control of the epidemic in the 20th post -major epidemic is still difficult to relax

For more than two years, a major factor that the outside world cannot avoid is the strict epidemic prevention policy when discussing China's economic issues.

Yang Dali, a professor at the Department of Political Sciences at the University of Chicago, warned in early October by the New York Times that many places in China were exhausted, and the incentives were weakened, and the funds of some local governments began to exhaust their funds.

However, in this 20th report, in addition to reviewing the work in the past five years, reiterating the dynamic and clearing, and proposing that it will improve the public health system in the future, strengthen the prevention and control system and emergency capacity building of major epidemic conditions and the construction of a major epidemic.There are no specific signs of relaxation.

In response, Wang Xinxian, a professor of the Department of East Asia, believes that the impact of epidemic prevention has a great impact on China, especially the unbelief of the middle class (China is called a middle -income group) for the central government, but the clearing policy has always been the Qing zero policy.It is a political task, especially the Chinese official on July 28 at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee that the relationship between the prevention and control of epidemic and economic and social development must be political.

He judged that even if the 20th National Congress ended, the Chinese epidemic prevention and control will not be relaxed. After the two sessions of the National Congress of the country next year (2023), the new administrative team will be in place, and there may be a chance to change in the future.However, Wang Xinxian also mentioned that this is still a long way to depend on the variation of the virus strains and the development of China's own vaccine.

Sino -US competition is the main external challenge to the Taiwan Strait situation difficult to slow down

In addition to internal affairs issues, geopolitical risks such as competition between China and the United States and the war of Russia and Ukraine are also an external challenge that the CCP is difficult to avoid in the future.

Tang Xinwei, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of the National Taiwan University, believes that the diplomatic positioning of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is to create good external conditions to develop.Judging from the current situation, the United States has temporarily consolidated the leadership of the developed countries, and Beijing temporarily prevents developing countries from developing to the United States.

He judged that what Beijing may do in the future is to slow down the speed of deteriorating relationships with the United States to strive for development; China will avoid the collapse of the Russian regime, or a pro -American regime; for Europe and Japan, although it is unlikely to be unlikelyStriving for political and military cooperation, but can strive for economic and trade cooperation.

Huang Qiongyi, a professor at the East Asian Research Institute of Taiwan Politburo, pointed out that the 20th report talked about the chapters of foreign relations, especially emphasizing resolutely opposing all forms of hegemonism and power politics, opposing the Cold War thinking, opposing interference in domestic politics, opposition to opposition, opposed"Four oppositions" such as dual standards are very obviously related to the United States.

She also believes that for Beijing, as long as other countries do not join the United States, oppose China, and China will win without choosing a border station.

Wang Xinxian, a professor -in -chief professor specially appointed by the East Asia Institute of Zhengda University, mentioned that although the 20th National Congress has not appeared in the United States, from Guoan, internal affairs, military, science and education talents, and governing the country according to law to cross -strait relations, Sino -US relationCoping the threat of the United States, this also highlights the work of the Chinese Communist Party at least five years in the next five years, inlaid in the two overall situations of national rejuvenation and strategic competition between China and the United States.

However, Chen Shimin, a professor at the Department of Political Department of the National Taiwan University, pointed out that the 20th National Congress report mentioned that "creating a strong strategic deterrent power system" was not mentioned in the past, and it is likely to be the construction of nuclear weapons.

He said that the Russian and Ukraine War showed the effects of nuclear weapons' intervention in the United States. This experience and lesson believe that it will be applied by Beijing on the assessment of the Taiwan Strait War."When playing Taiwan in the future, if you can have more than 5,000 nuclear warheads like Russia and the United States, will the United States dare not enter Taiwan? I believe this is a problem that Beijing will think."

It is worth noting that William Burns, director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), mentioned in an interview with Columbia Broadcasting News Network (CBS News) in early October that Chinese officials have instructed the PLA to in 2027Prepared for military attacking Taiwan before.

According to Bloomberg report, when the Communist Party of China was held at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, US Secretary of State Broskyy also mentioned that Beijing has also mentioned that Beijing has determined to attack Taiwan in a short time and achieve unified goals.But Brinken did not give a specific time estimate.

For the Beijing attack nodes, Chen Shimin infer that even if the PLA can achieve the century of the establishment of the army in 2027, it only obtains the "initial combat capability". Assuming that the U.S. military is involved, Beijing may not have confidently won Taiwan."After all, if you play it, it is serious if you can't get it in Taiwan."

Saiqi, a well -known American issue in the United States, also believes that China saw the West's sanctions on Russia in the Russian and Ukraine War, and Russia, as an important support for China as China against the United States, is still in chaos in Russia, Beijing in the short term in the short termThere is no intention to unify Taiwan forces, and there is no need to act in a hurry, but Wu Tong is still on the agenda.

is no longer a slogan declaration to promote the general steps or enter specific steps

As for the signal of Taiwan's policy on Taiwan's policy, Zhang Wuyue, director of the Research Center of Cross -Strait Research Center of Tamkang University, pointed out that although the contents of Taiwan's reports are less than 600 words, it is the 16th CPC National Congress since the 16th National Congress of the CPC.The least space is the most powerful.

Zhang Wuyue believes that in the next five years, it is difficult for Beijing to complete the unity in peace. Unless they touch the red line, they will not unify Taiwan in a force.However, it can be expected that Beijing will promote the unified historical process, so that the unified problem is no longer a slogan declaration, but a practice that needs to be turned into specific steps, such as strengthening force preparation to prevent Taiwan independence and resist external forces.The home advantage and unilateral as a continuous integration of Taiwan.

He also mentioned that, according to the convention, after the re -election of the national two -conference government in 2023, Chinese officials will make important speeches. After that, the Taiwan routes and policies will be clearer.

Zhao Chunshan, an honorary professor of the China Institute of Mainland China, who used to be a think tank of the Taiwan Malaysia Government's cross -strait policy, pointed out on the 19th when attending the seminar held by the Ma Ying -jeou Foundation on the 19th that the presidential elections in the United States and Taiwan in 2024 are here.During this period, Beijing will be braised with still, and wars will not occur on both sides of the strait.

But he judged that between 2024 and 2027, Beijing would have action against Taiwan because Chinese officials will face the question of whether the fourth term will be launched.

It is worth noting that Burns, director of the Central Intelligence Agency, mentioned in an interview with Columbia Broadcasting News Network in early October that Chinese officials have instructed the PLA to be prepared for military attacks before 2027.According to Bloomberg, at the time of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, US Secretary of State Broskyy also mentioned that Beijing has also mentioned that Beijing has determined to attack Taiwan in a short time and achieve unified goals.But Brinken did not give a specific time estimate.