Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Department of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Fudan University, recently speaking and recording at the internal meeting of the hospital. Last Saturday (December 10) circulated on the Internet.Zhang Wenhong predicts that the peak of the Shanghai epidemic will come within one month.It takes three to six months to go through this epidemic.
Chen Jing Shanghai Special Commissioner
After China's comprehensive relaxation of epidemic prevention control, the epidemic conditions in various places have rapidly heated up. Experts predict that the number of infections in Shanghai, Guangzhou and other places will reach its peak within one or two months.Some institutions warn that excessive relaxation of epidemic prevention measures may cause millions of people to die in winter.
Zhang Wenhong, director of the Department of Infectious Department of Huashan Hospital affiliated to Shanghai Fudan University, recently speaking and recording at the internal meeting of the hospital. It was circulated on the Internet last Saturday (December 10).Zhang Wenhong predicts that the peak of the Shanghai epidemic will come within one month.It takes three to six months to go through this epidemic.
Zhang Wenhong pointed out that Singapore and the United Kingdom with strict prevention and control of the epidemic reaches the peak speed; the first wave of peaks in the United States and Hong Kong arrived in one month.Now we do n’t take isolation in Shanghai and do not make nucleic acids. Therefore, Dafeng's time point may be faster than Singapore, and it is almost one time node as Hong Kong.It is possible to count from now on, and the peak will be reached in three or four weeks.
According to Zhong Nanshan team model of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the first wave of infection in Guangzhou may come from mid -early January to mid -February next year, and enter the stable stage in mid -March.
Zhong Nanshan speculates that it can be restored to the pre -epidemic state of life in the first half of next year
Zhong Nanshan was speculated in an interview with Chinese media last Friday (9th) that the living conditions of the first half of next year can be restored to the state of life before the epidemic.However, he also emphasized that the current focus of prevention should be transferred from preventing infection to preventing severe illnesses, and strengthening coronary vaccination is the key to the next step.
The Chinese government sharply relaxed the epidemic prevention policy last Wednesday (7th), allowing the home isolation of patients with crown diseases, and canceling the proof of check -ups of acidic acid negatives on cross -regional migrant personnel.The number of newly -added infected people in the country has continued to decline since then, from 20,165 cases on the 7th to 10,000 597 on the 10th.
However, people in many places have reported that due to the cancellation of the nationwide nucleic acid screening, the infected persons are no longer required to report it, and the official data is far lower than the actual addition.It is understood that in the past few days, infected people in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing and other places have increased rapidly, and some people who tease (nucleic acid) negatives have been cleared.
Wigram Capital Advisors, a macroeconomic consulting agency, warned that China ’s excessive relaxation of epidemic prevention measures may cause 1 million people to die in winter.
The agency predicts that the Lunar New Year in January next year will become a super communication incident. By mid -March, the number of daily deaths in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou will reach 20,000, and the average daily hospitalization case will reach a peak of 70,000.
The person in charge of Wordni Middot; Rodney Jones said that the current official publicity makes it seem to be no cost. The risk is that they underestimate the work and work and coexistence of coexistence with crown diseases in the world.The cost.
Earlier, some views were calculated based on the mortality of the Hong Kong epidemic. This round of epidemic in the mainland will cause hundreds of thousands of people to die, but Zhong Nanshan believes that this will not happen.
He said that when the epidemic of Hong Kong broke out, the vaccination rate of the elderly over 60 years of age did not exceed 20%. As of December 8, the addition rate of the additional inoculation rate of the elderly over the age of 60 in the mainland had reached 68.86%.Hong Kong was much better at the time.
Zhong Nanshan said that Omikon's recent death rate has been reduced to about 0.1 %, which is similar to the flu; most people will recover from seven to 10 days if most people are diagnosed.
Liang Haonan: China's open progress depends on the affordability of the medical system
Singapore infectious disease specialist Liang Haonan suggested in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that China can re -tighten some controlling control like Singapore to suppress the outbreak, such as slowing the speed of virus transmission by semi -seal control, and using crocodile oral drugs such as PAXLOVID to reduce the severity of the disease.Essence
Liang Haonan believes that China's openness should depend on the ability of the medical system. If the medical system collapses, it will cause more people to die.
China's official Sunday (11th) released the work plan to rely on the county medical community to improve the new crown pneumonia's medical security capacity in rural areas, guide medical institutions in rural areas to improve the ability to treat severe illness, and ensure that infected people with higher risk of severe illness can be treated in a timely manner.Rate and illness.
