The former foreign minister Qin Gang's career has risen and falls in a short period of time, which has questioned what happened in China's senior management and how will it affect China's future internal affairs and diplomacy.
The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China held a meeting on Tuesday (July 25) to announce the exemption from Qin Gang Foreign Minister and re -appointed Wang Yi as Foreign Minister.At this time, it was only more than half a year before Qin Gang's foreign minister, and the reason why he was removed was not explained.
Some analysts believe that the Qin Gang incident highlights the opaqueness of Chinese politics and damages China's image.
"The Qin Gang incident is not conducive to the image of the Chinese Communist Party in foreign countries and even the country." Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a senior researcher in Paris Asia.
"This incident highlighted a certain degree of instability in the leadership, and there were different policy differences, unprofessional high -level officials promoted, and a certain degree of political opaque -this was claimed to be promoting the economy and society to promote the economy and society.Even the ambitions of political globalization. "
After Qin Gang stepped down, Wang Yi remembered how to interpret the Chinese Minister of the Foreign Ministry of the Foreign Ministry.Replace it?
"Set in one"
Before the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress announced its decision, Qin Gang's promotion in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was very rapid and surpassed some more experienced people.Some people think that this is closely related to the close relationship between him and President Xi Jinping.
Qin Gang is the youngest foreign minister after China's reform and opening up.Before serving as the Minister, he served as the Ambassador to the United States in China, and there was no experience in dealing with the United States before, nor was he stationed in the United States.
He was only three months after taking over as Minister of Foreign Affairs in December 2022, and was promoted into a State Council in the "Two Sessions" of Beijing this year, which was unexpected to the outside world.Under normal circumstances, it is reasonable to be promoted to the State Commissioner after two to three years.
Recently, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress held a meeting, and decided to avoid Qin Gang's foreign minister's position for more than half a year.
"Qin Gang's ups and downs highlights the power of <<", and Zhu Zhiqun, a professor of international relations at Bucknell University of Bucknell, said.
"Qin is the love general of Xi, his rapid promotion and sudden disappearance, the key characters behind them are Xi."
Uncodic mystery
Qin Gang's sudden dismissal will implicate others, and how will it affect China's internal affairs, it is still difficult to judge.
"There are a lot of unsolved mysteries this time." Gao Jingwen said, "If it is due to extramarital affairs, he should not be appointed. But he just took office, indicating that it was not strict enough for the selection process.Either someone who slandered him later found that he could take the opportunity to remove him. "
He also pointed out, "Wang Yi's performance in the whole process is also a mystery. Did he support Qin's appointment, or later realized that Qin was inconsistent with his approach to the US relationship or 'fighting wolf'?It's hard to say " Zhu Zhiqun believes that assuming that Qin Gang was under investigation, the results of the investigation may not come out for a while, and the specific truth will not be fully announced.Therefore, it is difficult to judge whether his dismissal will involve others.
Even if a part of the survey results were announced, he believed that it would not affect China's internal affairs to a large extent.
"The Communist Party of China will try to control the impact of this case on the party and the government, especially not allowing this case to affect Xi's reputation. After all, Qin is promoted by Xi."
Some analysts also pointed out that Qin Gang's ups and downs in a short period of time are not special cases for opaque Chinese politics.
Bonnie Glaser, the director of the Marshall Foundation in the United States, said: "The turmoil around Qin Gang has been reflected in other aspects of the Chinese policy, such as the great reverse in the new crown epidemic policy and economic policy."
She said that the generalization of all problems in China is the "root of turbulence".
In May 2022, the then Chinese ambassador to the United States Qin Gang in Texas.
What to do in Chinese diplomacy
Scholars of interviewees pointed out that Qin Gang's dismissal will not have a huge impact on China's foreign policy.
"Foreign Minister is not a very powerful official in China. Wang Yi and Cai Qi, of course, Xi Jinping's own influence is much greater", Gao Jingwen said.
"Qin is a policy implementation, not a policy maker," Zhu Zhiqun said.
After Qin Gang went to the foreign minister, Wang Yi was re -held.Wang Yi will also continue to serve as the director of the Office of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Working Committee of the CPC Central Committee, while holding the highest diplomatic positions of the party and the government.
"This arrangement shows that the CCP hopes to stabilize the overall foreign situation as soon as possible and prevent the Qin Gang incident from affecting China's diplomacy and international image. It also shows that China's foreign policy and implementation will not change in the near future." Zhu Zhiqun said.
"Wang Yi's return nest injected stability and sustainability to Chinese diplomacy."
Eurasia Group, an American political risk consulting company, believes that at the same time, he can supervise the implementation of policies at the same time as the party and government's highest diplomatic positions.
"This may strengthen Beijing's consistency in release of diplomatic information and practical actions, while further consolidating the party's strong guidance for foreign affairs."
The agency believes that compared with Qin Gang, Wang Yi's diplomatic style is known for "abrasive". For exampleThis difference is highlighted.
"Wang Yi is holding the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Chinese diplomats may once again tend to be more aggressive 'War Wolf" style, which may make the Bayeng government maintain and consolidate the complexity of the recent ease of bilateral relations. "
Wang Yi is 69 years old, surpassing the practice of "seven up and eight" in the national level, and will be 70 years old in October this year.
Wang Yi: Transitional Foreign Minister?
It is unclear whether Wang Yi is just a temporary foreign minister, or it will last until the next party congress in 2027.Wang Yi is 69 years old, surpassing the practice of "seven up and eight" at the national level, and will be 70 years old in October this year.
Scholars of interviewees believe that Wang Yi as a foreign minister should belong to the transitional nature. It is expected that the new foreign minister will be appointed at the end of this year and further confirmed at the meeting of the People's Congress in March next year.
China has several major diplomatic tasks in the second half of this year, including the G20 (G20) Leadership Summit held in New Delhi, India, and the APEC Summit of the Asia -Pacific Organization Organization in San Francisco.
"These major events require veteran Wang Yi to come to the helm," Zhu Zhiqun said.
Wang Yi served as a foreign minister from 2013 to 2022 and was one of the consultants in Xi Jinping.
Although Qin Gang was removed from the position of Foreign Minister, his status of his State Council has not been revoked.However, after a few hours of announcement issued by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, most of the previous diplomatic activities on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have been deleted, which does not seem to be an active signal.
According to the National People's Congress Organization Law, the duties of the State Council are members of the State Council, nominated by the State Council Prime Minister, and decided by the National People's Congress.The revocation of the post also needs to be made in accordance with the meeting of the chairman's meeting and the Prime Minister of the State Council, and it was made during the period of the National People's Congress.
This means that it seems that it is just a matter of time and procedures. It is expected that the National People's Congress will be announced in March next year.
