Russia held the presidential election this week. The current President Putin will "prepare beforehand" to eliminate potential threats and obstacles. It is generally expected to be successfully re -elected and continue to lead Russia by 2030.If Putin has been in power for six years, what does it mean for the Russian and U -Kuka war, the development of Russia's economic development, and even the global economy?At the end of this year's US presidential election, what kind of turning will it bring to the US -Russian relations and the Russian and Ukraine War?
Russia held a presidential election from March 15th to 17th. Although the official results will not be announced in a few days, it is generally believed that President Putin will definitely lead to lead Russia until 2030.
Political observers generally believe that this is not a fair and fair election, because the Russian Central Election Commission has cleared obstacles for Putin and prohibits opposition candidates from running for various reasons.The only opposition candidate Naje Ding (60 years old) was accused of invalid signature and lost his qualification for campaign.Another opposition leader Navari was prisoned in prison a few years ago, and he died in prison last month.
The other three candidates come from the Palace of the Kremlin, including the Harritov (75) of the Russian Federal Communist Party, the Vice President of the Russian National Duma Vankov (40) and the parliament member Slutzki(56 years old).They are more like running, not competing with Putin.
The Russian Independence polls (Levada )'s polls in February showed that Putin's support rate reached 86%, and only 11%opposed his election.In addition, after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, people in the right direction of Russia had risen to 75%, and only 15%believed that Russia was on the wrong road.
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Increase the attack on the ebony is related to the election
Ian Storey, a senior researcher at the Erosov Issa East South Asian Research Institute in Singapore, said in a Lianhe Zaobao interview that Putin will win the presidential election."He will regard the results of the election as a rehabilitation to launch the Russian -Ukraine War and double the military operations in Ukraine."
In the past few months, the Russian army has strengthened to attack the Ukraine forces and captured Avdiivka from the Ukraine of Donetz.
An Analyst of the Stockholm Eastern European Research Center analyst Andreas Umland, an analyst of the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, analyzed that the recent offensive of the Russian army was related to the coming presidential election.
"In 2019, when I arrived in Afdifka, there was a semi -destroyed state, and now it was actually occupied by the Russian army, leaving only the ruins. In terms of symbolic significance, this is still a certain way for Putin to take a shot.Fruit fruit. He believes that the Russian army sacrificed a large number of soldiers to capture the small area of Af Difka, not for rational judgment, but to "explain" voters.
The price of the Russian army to capture Afdeka is very high.A Russian military blogger said earlier that the Russian army lost 16,000 soldiers and 300 armored vehicles for this.
If you are re -elected to face three major risks
Umrand believes that even if Putin is successfully re -elected, he can't worry, because he faces three major risks -the Russian army is frustrated in the Russian and Ukraine War, economic problems and social instability, and soldiers are dissatisfied.
If the Russian army is unfavorable in Ukraine, such as the control of Crimea, it will directly shake Putin's position.
Umrand said: "If the Ukraine successfully cuts off the supply line of Russia to connect Crimea, this will affect Putin's ruling legitimacy, because the annexation of Crimea is the peak of his entire president's career."
Putin's 2014 Army annexed the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine, and in February 2022, the Russian and Ukrainian war broke out in Ukraine.
The so -called long -term soldiers are blunt, the possibility of soldiers with dissatisfaction exists, and there may be a condition like the head of the Wagner Group Poliga to launch a mutiny last year.The Russian army may also breed internal problems due to bad leadership, interruption of military supply, and bad behaviors in the army.
Economically, it is mainly due to inflation that causes public dissatisfaction.The Evada Center's survey at the end of last year found that the intensified inflation and rising food prices could have a long -lasting impact on the emotions of the Russians.In addition, Russians who reducing expenditure have increased.
Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the United States and the European Union have imposed a series of sanctions on Russia, causing the Russian ruble depreciation and inflation.The Russian central bank issued a statement at the end of February that the Russian inflation rate was expected to be 7.6%in the first quarter of this year, higher than the central bank's 4%target.
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Experts believe that although Western sanctions have achieved certain results, even if more sanctions are implemented, it is unlikely to force Russia to stop the war.
Howard Santz, a senior economist in the United States, said in an interview that increasing sanctions may increase the cost of launching war and may reduce the effectivenessMake Russia.
"As we see in Cuba, North Korea and other cases, sanctions rarely lead toA country abandon its core interests.Even if the Russian and Ukraine War was not the core interests of Russia itself, it was also the core interests of Putin."
Umrand also said that sanctions are not completely invalid, but they cannot just impose sanctions against Russia.Western countries must have the courage to sanctions all countries that trades with Russia in order to make sanctions really work.
The death of Navali has little effect
In addition, whether the Russian opposition leader Navarni died strangely one month before the election, whether it would become a variable of the presidential election, which is also the focus of the outside world.
Scholars of interviewees believe that the death of Navarini will not have any impact on the election.Sturi said Putin received the support of most Russians.Umrand said that only thousands of people came to Navalni to express their condolences, so they were expected to not set off their waves in the election.
47 -year -old Navari died suddenly in prison on February 16.His widow Yulia vowed to continue his husband's career, calling on the Russians not to vote for Putin, and rally to protest outside the voting station on March 17.
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The 71 -year -old Putin was born in KGB (the Soviet National Security Council, referred to as KGB). He began in politics in 1990, served as the president in 1999, and officially served as president in 2000; from 2008 to 2012, he could not be re -elected because of the constitution and supported his confidant.Medvedev serves as president and serves as the prime minister; he has been the president again in 2012.
In the presidential election in 2018, Putin won 77%of the record.In this election, he almost affirmed the re -election, but the votes were high -the highlights -the Russians would give him more votes, or told him not to invade Ukraine by votes?
How does Baynden Trump "re -race" US -Russian relations changes?
If Putin fights for six years, people will pay attention to the result of the "re -racing" of the current US President Biden and former President Trump at the end of this year, how will it affect US -Russian relations and the situation of the Russian and Ukraine War.
Analysis pointed out that if Trump is elected, it will affect the trend of US -Russian relations and the Russian and U -wars;
Putin has publicly said that Biden is an old -fashioned politician, and it is more experienced and predictable that Biden is more beneficial to Russia.However, his remarks were widely interpreted as anti -words.
A comment from the Nikkei Asia pointed out that if Trump entered the White House again, considering that he had a good relationship with Putin during his first term, the US -Russian relations in the next four years may be different from now.The relationship between the United States and Europe may worsen again.
In addition to many expressions of Putin, Trump also threatened to encourage Russia to attack those NATO member states who refused to pay enough fees, causing a stir.
Alexander Vindman, the European Affairs Director of the National Security Council, said that he was worried that Trump's recent remarks would let Putin seize the opportunity to exacerbate Ukraine and the European Union.
He told the Washington Post: "He (Trump) is signing the second Trump administration to be friendly to the enemy and hostile to friends. From the perspective of Russia, this is the best situation."
During Trump's tenure, the relationship between the United States and the allies cools down.He often complained that the defense funds of NATO member states were unfairly, and even threatened that the United States would leave NATO.
There are no major changes in the U.S. presidential election.
In the past two years, the Russian and Ukraine War has accounted for almost all of US -Russian relations.Prior to the results of the US presidential election, it is expected that the Russian and Ukraine War will not change significantly.
Richard Haass, former president of the US Foreign Relations Commission, told Japan's daily news that there will be no major changes in the Russian and Ukraine War this year, because both Russia and Ukraine are waiting for the results of the US presidential election.
He pointed out that if Biden is re -elected and the Democratic Party has won the control of the House of Representatives, it may add confidence to Ukraine to sit in front of the negotiating table; if Trump is elected, or the Republican Party continues to control the House of Representatives, it will weaken Ukraine's power.
Leon Aron, a senior researcher at the American Enterprise Research Institute (American Enterprise Institute), also believes that Putin will take new military or diplomatic actions on the Ukraine issue until Ukraine's issue.
He said: "Russia will not try to adopt a large -scale offensive that may damage a large number of soldiers in Ukraine, because Putin is waiting for a good transaction."
Trump stated earlier that if he was elected, he "would not spend a penny" in the war in Russia and Ukraine.Hungarian Prime Minister Olban said: "If Americans do not give money, it is impossible to fund the war alone by Europeans. In this way, the war will end."
Umrand believes that it is still difficult to predict the impact of Trump's election on the Russia and Ukraine War.
"No one knows what Trump is thinking, it is difficult for him to predict. Some people think that if he was elected, it may be a disaster for Ukraine ... But if you see his performance when he is president, for UkraineIt is not a good thing, but it is not a disaster.
According to the statistics of the US Foreign Relations Commission, from January 2022 before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, from January 15, this year, the Bayeon government has provided Ukraine with a funds of US $ 74.3 billion (about 99.3 billion yuan), includingHumanitarian assistance, weapons and equipment, security assistance, financial assistance, etc.
Economy is not sustainable is Putin's great challenge
Faced with international sanctions, Russia's economic performance is tough compared to expectations -only 1.2%in 2022, an increase of 3.6%last year, and an expected increase of 2.6%this year.
RandIn an interview, the class economist Sanz said that the Russian economy has shifted to the state of war, and the growth is mainly driven by a large number of government expenditures, but Russia's medium and long -term economic prospects are not optimistic.
The economic economy refers to the production of a large number of weapons to produce a large number of weapons, which has pushed up the economic growth rate, but it has little benefit to the overall population and society.
Gioneva, President of the International Monetary Fund, said in an early visit to the US CNBC interview that the Russian economy can achieve 2.6%of growth this year, showing that government investment in military production has drove growth."This is almost the past of the Soviet Union -high production level and low consumption level."
The fiscal expenditure of the Russian government in 2023 was about 32.4 trillion rubles (about S $ 473 billion), which was much higher than about 24.8 trillion rubles in 2021.This year's expenditure budget is as high as 3.66 trillion rubles, of which about 30 % will be spent in military.
Although Putin issued a national information in Duma on February 29, he promised to improve the campaign promise of improving infrastructure, eliminating poverty and development technology, but analysts estimate that to implement these commitments, the Russian government in the next six years in the next six yearsIt may cost more than $ 130 billion.Russia is not optimistic about finding enough funds to implement these commitments.
Sanctions cannot participate in the global value chain
Marketing analyst Saviki told the News Weekly that additional expenditures may depend on the sales revenue of energy goods, but sanctions and commodity prices have gradually returned to normal since last year, and Russia's budget revenue is expected to be less than 2022.
Sanz said that from the middle period, this expenditure is unsustainable.Because Russia is severely sanctioned and faced with large -scale technical export control, it is difficult to obtain various investment required for future growth.More importantly, it cannot participate in the global value chain and cooperate with advanced countries such as the Seven Kingdoms and the European Union.
Russia can cooperate with China, but Chinese companies are unwilling to violate Western sanctions; Russia also launch technical cooperation with Iran, North Korea, but cannot make up for the reduction of losses caused by Western cooperation.
Sanz judged that Russia must eventually reduce government expenditure, which may further fall behind in technology, and productivity and economic growth will be affected.
