Former US President Trump's primary election in the Republican Party is like a rainbow. In November this year, the presidential election, Trump is more likely to face the Democratic Party President Biden, and may even defeat Bynden's heavy weight.Back to the White House.If Trump's re -controlling regime will definitely bring a more chaotic world. Among the traditional American allies, the European Union is most concerned about Trump's possible return.
Trump, who is born in a businessman, advocates "the United States first."When he was in charge of the White House from 2017 to 2021, he was attacked by no matter whether it was traditional American allies or opponents.At that time, the United States and the European Union started a trade war and threatened to withdraw from NATO, and also asked Japan and South Korea to bear more US military funds.Trump also led the United States to withdraw from Paris Climate Agreement, Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement, Iran Nuclear Agreement, and UNESCO.
Unwilling to lose to Biden four years ago, Trump is now fighting for the president again, and the promise promise promised by promised is equally shocking.He claimed that he would generally levy 10%tariffs on imported goods in all countries, and vowed to retaliate against countries that levy higher tariffs from American products.He also promised to reduce the US international assistance, considering allowing the United States to withdraw from NATO, or at least the United States' participation in the Cross -Atlantic Defense Agreement.
Trump, who is quite overbearing, is a recognized anti -European Union. He may return to the White House, which makes European countries particularly disturbing.European Central Bank governor Lagarde warned that Trump's victory would pose a clear threat to Europe.Belgian Prime Minister Docou said that if Trump's priority is advocating for the United States, Europe will fall into unprecedented isolation, and Europe must be ready to be "independent."
Taste of Trump and NATO
In January this year, when the winning election would provide military support for European NATO partners, Trump said it depends on how European countries treat the United States.He said "NATO has used our country, and European countries have benefited from it."
Trump's dissatisfaction with NATO has a long history. He often complained during his time as the President of the United States. Many NATO member states have invested too low in the national defense field and did not reach the goal set by NATO.
At a campaign rally in South Carolina on February 10 this year, Trump also threatened to encourage Russia to attack those NATO member states who refused to pay enough fees.He said: "Under my leadership, the United States will not protect any country that arrears. If you dare to arrears the cost of NATO, you will not only protect the United States by Russia, but also encourage Russia to do whatever you want."
NATO's goal is to invest 2%of the GDP (GDP) of all member states into national defense, but due to domestic political differentiation and weak economic growth, most member states are unable to achieve this goal.Last year, only 11 of the 31 NATO member states reached the standard, while the United States has long been the highest proportion of NATO operating costs for a long time, more than one -fifth, and has only fallen to about 16%in recent years.
Trump's institutional speech caused a stir.NATO Secretary -General Stoltenberg criticized Trump's remarks that made soldiers in the United States and Europe face greater risks.The EU's senior representative of the European Union's Foreign and Security Policy Berrely accused Trump of his remarks and danger.Berrely emphasized that the Western Defense Alliance cannot become a "menu -style" alliance for people to order with the mood of US President.
John Donaldson, an associate professor of Politics of Singapore School of Management University Social College, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "In terms of security, Europe relies largely to the United States. Russia pose a substantial threat to European security.Trump questioned the need for NATO, which was a heavy blow for European leaders.
As we all know, Trump has always believed that NATO uses the strength of the United States without giving any returns.Du Qiang said: "Trump has always been hostile to the NATO and cannot see the value of this alliance."
Scholars: Europe is not ready to bear more security responsibilities
Former German Prime Minister Merkel had emphasized during the Trump's administration that Europe must be united and cannot depend on other countries unconditionally.If Europeans want to survive as a community, they have to fully grasp their own destiny.
Trump made Europe aware that the United States does not always act according to European interests, especially when the interests of the United States and Europe are conflict.
As the U.S. election is approaching, French President Macron once again called for strengthening the European defense industry and making Europe a complementary security and defense force with NATO.This is obviously a response to Trump's controversy.
A number of sources closely related to the European government revealed that discussions on how to prepare and respond to the reform of the US government have been launched.But many experts and scholars believe that Europe has not yet prepared Trump's election again.
Adam Garfinkle, former American Politician, US Politicist at the Institute of International Relations of Nanyang University of Technology, Singapore, pointed out that the NATO allies in Europe must seriousSex, but they did not do so.
Gentakle said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "Ukraine abandoned the town of Donbas, (Russia's opposition leader) Navari was suspected of being killed, and the convening of the Munich Security Conference all played a role in promoting.But if Trump wins and returns to the president's throne, they are not ready to cope.
He believes that Europe has not yet prepared more responsibilities for its own safety, because it takes a long time to establish effective deterrence and combat capabilities."Even the most worrying and most active Poland is currently 10 years away from the ability to repel Russia attack."
Gerard Toal, a professor of international affairs at Virginia University of Technology, believes that Europe itself has not prepared Trump again.
Thor told United Morning Post: "Trump is again elected will be a major challenge to the rule of law and democratic systems in the United States. This will also seriously weaken the key role played by the United States in the Western military alliance system."
Thor said that in recent years, Europe has tried to reduce its dependence on the United States in the field of military and economy, but its results have not been obvious so far.He believes that Europe can start from the Ukrainian war and prepare through the ability to develop independent operations in international affairs, and this challenge has been placed in front of the European Union and NATO.
In the eyes of European leadership, the United States is no longer reliable in the past
Every time the US government changes, the US foreign policy will turn and lack coherent.There is a huge difference in policy stance between the Biden government and the Trump administration, and this change occurred in the context of the Harbin conflict and the incompetence of the Russian and Ukraine War, and the extremely tight international situation. The impact will be particularly far -reaching.
The core purpose of Biden Foreign Policy is to strengthen the alliance against opponents and generally advocate strengthening international cooperation.Trump has promoted the "priority of the United States", which has aroused anxiety of American allies and partners.
If Trump won in the 2024 election, he will work in January 2025, less than a year before it is now.Before the next owner of the White House confirmed, it was difficult for the Biden government to make a binding commitment.This means that the credibility of the United States and the ability to intervene in global affairs may gradually weaken this year.
Du Qiang told the Morning Post: "European leaders do think that the United States is no more reliable than before. The US's pro -European position was a consensus, but now Biden's commitment is only valid during the Democratic Party's administration."
In addition, Bayeng shouted "the United States is back" on the international stage after being elected, but his declaration has not been fully verified.Republicans have obstructed the United States to allocate military assistance in Ukraine again in Congress, and Biden's intervention failed to stop stopping the conflict of Harbin, or avoid conflict overflowing.
Thor believes that no matter who this year's US presidential election wins, the United States has moved to polarization in politics.He said: "In addition to the rise of American populist instigators Trump, the United States is not as stable and reliable as the past."
Putin said to support Bayon's re -election, is it praise or a trap?
Russia was charged with intervention in the 2016 U.S. election and secretly helped Trump to win.However, Russian President Putin recently made a public statement saying that he was more happy to see Biden's re -election.
As we all know, since Russia launched the Russian and Ukraine War in 2022, Biden led the West to conduct multiple rounds of sanctions on Russia, and US -Russian relations at the lowest point in more than 60 years.This makes people have to doubt that Putin said that he hopes that he is more elected to be elected.
Putin described Biden as an old -fashioned politician during the interview a few days ago. Bittan is more experienced and predictable that Bayeng was more beneficial to Russia.This is the first time Putin has published comments on the US election held this year.As for Trump, Putin claims that he is a politician outside the individual system, and has his own ideas for how the United States should develop with allies.
Some media analysis pointed out that Putin's remarks may be to convey to the American people. Moscow believes that "Biden is better dealt with" to help Trump.Trump also immediately responded to "this is a kind of praise", and also said that Putin also hoped that Biden was elected because Bayeng would give Ukraine to Russia.
Gentakle believes that Putin said good words for Biden, hoping to hook the Biden government, forcing Ukraine to stop the fire through negotiations."Putin is basically lying, delaying time. He is trying to use the Republican Party to oppose armed Ukraine to put pressure on the Bayeng government to force Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire surrender."
European leaders are very concerned about the US election, not only because Trump is currently leading in polls, but also because the US Congress has not approved military assistance to Ukraine.They are worried that this may encourage Russia to directly attack NATO countries.
NATO officials who attended the Munich Security Conference have been discussed in private and should attack one of the NATO member states as urgent response because they are increasingly doubting whether the United States will continue to play traditional roles in Europe.
European allies in the United States are so vigilant because they realize that Russia will be more bold after reporting on the Ukrainian battlefield.At the same time, the United States may reduce its support for Europe, and Europe itself is not prepared.
Trump has repeatedly emphasized that he would stop Russia and Ukraine after taking office.Trump is also open to pressure Ukraine to abandon territory in exchange for peace.
Analysis pointed out that even if Trump could not immediately stop the Russian and Ukraine War, it was enough to affect the direction of this war, which will be beneficial to Russia.Putin's current calculation is that once Trump came to power, the United States would force Ukraine to talk about the status quo. Therefore, the best strategy at the moment is not a ceasefire, but to increase the attack and occupy more advantages.This will be catastrophic because European security depends on the success of Ukraine, or at least it depends on Europe's ability to prevent and weaken Russia for continuous attack.
Trump said it will end the Russian and Ukraine War immediately after being elected
Thor's remarks on Putin have different interpretations.He believes that Putin's position is unreasonable.Competition between Russia and the United States requires a stable basic rules, and these rules require experienced and rational leaders to implement."Trump is just the opposite. He is narcissistic, paranoid, and destructive ... In the nuclear weapon world, this is very dangerous."
Thor also believes that Putin gets fun from attacking other leaders."This time he decided to do this to Trump."
Two years ago, when Russia launched an attack on Ukraine, the United States responded rapidly to coordinate European allies unanimously imposing sanctions on Russia. At the same time, it provided assistance to Ukraine and praised the leadership.However, the Ukrainian war showed no signs of suspension, and all parties supported Ukraine's fatigue, and the bonus factors that originally favored the Bayeng government have become cumbersome.
Compared with the Trump era, the international issues that the Biden government now faces, whether it is Russia, Ukraine, Israel, or Palestine, is actually beyond the scope of the United States -controlled, challenging.Trump, who is outside the game, praise Haikou without burden, saying that after coming to power, he will end the Russian and Ukraine War and calm the Middle East dispute.Trump emphasized that the United States should focus on its own development and continue to implement the United States priority policy to make the United States great again.In addition, he has to tighten the immigration policy to protect the interests of the United States.The correct set of Bayeng government politics was overturned by Trump.
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Trump, compared with the sinking Biden, is a presidential candidate who is more enthusiastic about inspiring voters.Although he often speaks well, he can meet the demands of American voters in the era of great change.
Du Qiang said that Trump's nationalism and revenge have won the support of many voters."Especially on the issue of NATO, for many Americans, the US garrison Europe is not cheap at all, but a big loss. Trump just wants to fight for these" European Europe and I have a relationship "."
Because of this, Trump's support rates among Republican voters across the country have exceeded 50 %.Scholars believe that regardless of whether Trump successfully returns to the White House, Europe should not despise Trump's threat to EU and NATO member states.Europe must master its own destiny, build European strategy autonomy, and strengthen its national defense.
