Bloomberg News Website published an article that was exaggerated by the demise of globalization on October 10, the author is Daniel Mos.The excerpts of the article are as follows:
Don't tear too much for globalization.The cross -border stability flow of goods, services, capital and technology has not stopped abruptly.The global economy has not been split to the point where it cannot be repaired.The transfer of some investment is far from the impact of China's industry, but it may enhance China's influence in the supply chain.
Fashionable terms such as backflow, friendly outsourcing and fragmentedization are on the ruthlessness, and it is very simple to describe some isolation that seems to be a gradual development trend.These words can also be thrown safely at the Davos' meeting without worrying about challenges.
But they will still suffer frustration: last year, the US -China trade volume soared to a record level, and all those who advocated the decoustile were beaten.Another defect is that the slogan of the mouthful of mouth cannot be available.The circulation of global commodity goods may be over the peak, but the service trade has performed well.According to data from the International Clearance Bank, the most global market, that is, the currency trading market, has swelled to $ 7.5 trillion per day.
The speech of "de -globalization" is endless, but in recent years, it has proved that in the face of multiple impacts, trade is still full of toughness, and the degree of world economic integration is still high.Even if we look at the trade between China and the United States with the most tight trade relations, we can still find that the imports of the United States from China increased significantly from 2017 in 2022.
Caroline Froinde from the University of California and San Diego, and economists from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund found that tariffs really cause a certain degree of decoupling between the United States and China, but there is no but not.Breaking the dependence on China's second largest economy in China.With the increase of indirect connections, the situation may even be the opposite.In order to serve American customers who need diversified sources, third countries still need products or product components made in China.In other words, you can't have professional knowledge and business opportunities overnight.
At a meeting held in August in the Federal Reserve, Laura Alphaero of Harvard Business School expressed a similar point of view.Those factories controlled by China are difficult to get rid of the value chain.
Despite the decrease in the direct dependence of the United States to China, China has increased among the total imports of "friendly" countries such as the European Union, Mexico and Vietnam.China is unlikely to copy the strategy of other countries' direct investment in domestic production to avoid policy restrictions in the United States, but Chinese companies are strengthening direct investment and expanding production facilities in key areas of Vietnam and Mexico.
In this era of economic governance, fashionable terms can indeed add color to the cover of well -known magazines.But unfortunately, they can illuminate the road or confuse the audiovisual.If we see the truth, the wonderful talk about economic and financial fragmentation may eventually highlight how close the connection between people and the market is.
