(Moscow Comprehensive) The Russian economy shrinks 2.1%last year, which is better than forecast, showing that the impact of Western sanctions on Russia is less than expected.
Economic data released by the Russian Federal Statistics (Rosstat) on Monday (February 20) is better than previous forecasts.The Russian Ministry of Economic Development predicted that the economy would shrink by 2.9%last year, and the central bank also estimates that it will shrink about 3%. Russian President Putin also estimates that it may shrink 2.5%a month ago.After Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 last year, Western countries imposed sanctions on it, and all parties expected that this would hit the Russian economy.
Piqi, a British Economic Research Corporation, Kaitou, said: "In 2022, Russia's GDP (GDP) contracted 2.1%, less than expected. This is consistent with the expansion trend in the fourth quarter.It has been stabilized after being hit by sanctions in the second quarter. "However, he also said:" Even so, the momentum of the Russian economy is still weak. Due to the backwind of economic power, it may not be able to start recovering later this year. "
It is expected to restore economic growth in the middle of this year
The central bank governor Nabi Ulinna predicts that the economy will return to growth in mid -year, and it is estimated that the GDP interval will be 1.0%to 1.0%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said at the end of last month that Russia would shrink 2.2%last year, rather than 3.4%of the previous forecasts, and it is estimated that this year will achieve a slight growth.At the same time, Russia's annual inflation rate in January was stable at about 12%, far lower than 17.8%in April last year. At that time, the first round of sanctions in the West began to take effect, resulting in the inflation rate soared to the highest level in 20 years.
The Russian central bank predicted earlier this month that the annual inflation rate will drop to 5%to 7%this year, and it will be reduced to 4%next year.In addition, despite Western sanctions, Russia has reached a new high on China's crude oil and fuel exports.
According to the commodity data analysis company KPler, Russia's crude oil and fuel exports to China in January reached 1.66 million barrels per day, which was the most since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, setting a record set in April 2020.
The surge in imports in China is mainly promoted by private oil refining companies, but state -owned refining giants have also accelerated the procurement of Russian crude oil and changed cautious attitudes that were previously worried about the threat of US and allies' sanctions.The increase in crude oil imports also reflects that the recovery of China's economy is accelerating.
The Russian and Ukraine War reshaped global energy trade, and China and India became the largest buyer of Russian crude oil.In order to avoid customer loss, Moscow had to provide discounts. This is what Asian buyers who are trying to curb domestic inflation.
