The high probability of the midterm election in the United States is expected by the Republican Party to win the control of the House of Representatives by the Republican Party.Scholars believe that President Biden's government decision in the next two years may face more resistance in the House of Representatives, and there may be more confusion in the process; foreign policy will not change much, but it cannot be ruled out that Biden will spend more energy.The possibility of ignoring international affairs in China.
The US midterm election is considered a referendum for the two -year governance performance of the president.Now that the House of Representatives returns to the Republican Party, the Democratic Party is likely to control the "split parliamentary" situation of the Senate. It is not the worst situation for the Democratic Party and Biden, but scholars expect domestic political development to change greatly.
Wang Yong, director of the International Political and Economic Research Center of Peking University, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "The U.S. political chaos is mainly driven by factors such as party values and conflicts of political and economic interests of the two parties."
Wang Yong believes that the direction of some policies promoted by Congress may be adjusted greatly, such as government expenditure and debt upper limit, antitrust legislation, climate policy, etc.
If the Democratic Party continues to control the Senate, it can still check the policy direction of the House of Representatives.Michael Kazin, a professor at the Department of History of Georgon University, pointed out in an earlier interview that as long as all Democratic Senators are united, they can complete two major events: defeat any bill adopted by the Republican House, and confirm that Biden Bayeng to the Federal CourtThe appointment of the judge.This means that the Democratic Party can compete for the conservative process of US politics through the Senate.
Hong Youren, a researcher at the Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajernan International Research Institute, believes that the "split parliament" will fundamentally terminate the establishment of the Biden government's domestic policy formulation.However, the Biden government can be a little fortunate that he has adopted several important legislation in Congress in the first two years of his term, including crown disease assistance, relief and economic security law infrastructure investment and employment law and recent reduction of inflation.
In addition to policy formulation, it may be difficult to faces the House of Representatives, and Biden may have to face a series of revenge operations of the Republican Party.The House of Representatives Republican leader McCarthy warned earlier that if the Republican Party regained the House of Representatives, he would start impeachment on the "felony" committed by the government to deal with border issues, crown disease and Afghanistan withdrawal.
Hong Youren said that the Republican revenge operation will greatly disperse the attention of the Bayeng government, so that he will pay more attention to domestic politics in the next two years.
John Bradford, a senior researcher at the Rajiery South International Research Institute, believes that the Republican Party's control of the House of Representatives can promote Biden to re -examine his domestic policy and help the Democratic Party perform better in 2024."In this case, the affected foreign policy is the most direct related policies that are related to domestic issues, such as immigration, anti -drug movement and the relationship with Mexico."
Foreign policy is expected to have not changed much
As for other key foreign policies, scholars believe that there will not be much change.Bradford pointed out that foreign policies are mainly the field of administrative power, and the two -party diplomatic elites have a relatively consistent consensus on the competition between China and the United States and supporting Ukraine.
Wang Yong also agreed that the two parties' foreign policy goals were relatively consistent."Just like American political culture: politics stops at the water by the water. Their purpose is to maintain the international leadership and hegemony status of the United States, and to maintain the international competitiveness of the United States in terms of economy. The difference is that the means and methods of the two parties areIs it the cooperation of the unilateral or bilateral?
Chen Gang, assistant director of the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore National University, believes that Sino -US relations are expected to ease in the next two years.
Chen Gang said: "The Sino -US trade war has been hit to the present, and it is not good for all parties. Now the midterm elections are over. From the perspective of the Bayeng government, he does not need to adopt excessive tough policies for public opinion. HeThere is no such motivation. "
In terms of trade, because both the Democratic Republican parties are currently not much interested in free trade, the trade reform of the Biden government will not focus on reducing tariffs.Wang Yong said that although Southeast Asian countries hope that the United States will continue to promote trade liberalization, as the domestic politics of the United States has undergone tremendous changes, the hope of the Asian Danian country will decline.
