The US think tank research and judgment, in the short term of mainland China, it is more likely to be isolated from Taiwan by tightening customs regulations.New normal.
A report on Wednesday (June 5) of the US Strategy and International Research Center stated that the goal of this isolation operation was not to cut off Taiwan's trade channel, but a gray area, in order to use it.Realize more limited but still important goals.
The report said that isolation will allow mainland China to impose greater political and administrative intervention in Taiwan, which will help the mainland to declare sovereignty; the action will also help weaken Taiwan's autonomy and impact the Taiwan public to the army and the army and the army and the army and the army and the army and the army.The confidence of the Coast Guard plays a powerful deterrent.
The report says that because the isolation operation is not led by the PLA, the risk of the operation of the operation has led to the low risk of direct military confrontation.If isolation is used as a law enforcement operation, mainland China can easily announce the end of the operation.
Report analysis and deduced two situations of mainland limited and comprehensive isolation in Taiwan.In a limited situation, the Beijing government will first announce the tightening of customs inspection regulations and avoid using the words "isolation" or "blockade".The company is authorized to board the ship and stipulates that companies that violate the regulations will be fined or restricted market access.
Although mainland China will not openly open a specific check location, it is likely to lock in Taiwan's busiest port, Kaohsiung Port.
The reason why Kaohsiung Port chose is because more than half of Taiwan's maritime trade is carried out in Kaohsiung Port. Nearby Yongan LNG (LNG) terminals are Taiwan's largest liquefied natural gas import facilities.If the mainland can effectively control Kaohsiung Port, it can impose a significant impact on the goods entering Taiwan.
About 48 hours after the announcement, mainland Chinese ships will reach the connected area of 24 nautical miles of the island in Taiwan, or the 12 -nautical collar line inspection passes through the ship; the PLA will also deploy including destroyers, frigate, supportNearly 30 ships, including the ship, cruise from a distance to prevent foreign maritime police officers or military intervention.
The report says that if the resistance faces is relatively limited, Beijing is likely to reduce the scale of action after a week, but the mainland vessels deployed around the Taiwan Strait will continue to cruise to establish a new normal.
Another situation is greatly upgraded. In addition to tightening the customs isolation regulations, all goods are required to be shipped to Taiwan to notify the mainland in advance. The isolated area will also cover Taiwan.Beijing will deploy more than 30 law enforcement vessels to carry out unprecedented large -scale maritime operations. The most concentrated ones will still be the outside of Kaohsiung.
The mainland law enforcement forces will be more actively boarding the ship for inspection, check one or two daily inspections, and even seize several ships that do not obey the order.The mainland will also deploy the Shandong ship aircraft carrier formation group in the southeast of Taiwan, and densely dispatch the J -15 fighter aircraft to the eastern part of Taiwan.
After more than two weeks of action, the strength and frequency will begin to decrease, but there will still be a large number of maritime police and liberated warships around Taiwan.
The report believes that although Beijing has the ability to successfully implement the action, these operations are more complicated than any action sacrificed by the mainland so far, and the risk is higher.The success rate depends largely on the reactions of Taiwan, the United States and other countries.
