On the first battlefield of the campaign, Harris may never win; but the second battlefield involves the dispute between the election rules.Today, this battle involving rules is in full swing, especially in the seven battlefield states, which is particularly fierce. It can predict that the factor that determines the winning and defeat of this election campaign is not completely in the first battlefield.

The powerful publicity packaging of the National Congress of the Democratic Party shows the morale of the Democratic Party in the Democratic Party, so that people ignore an important message: at the National Congress on August 20, Vice President Harris's largest gold master "Future in the future" FutureThe person in charge of Future Forward, Chaundcey McLean, said in his speech that their own polls were not as "optimistic" as they were displayed in public polls, and warned that Democrats will face moreFierce competition.So, what is the factors that determine the ownership of the 2024 election?Is it true public opinion, or is it re -acting for the destruction of the rules in 2020?This is indeed a very serious problem.

Since the former US President Clinton said that classic famous saying "stupid, the problem in the economy", economic policy has always been regarded as the core election commitment of presidential candidates, which has played a key role in the choice of middle voters.On August 16, three days before the National Congress held, Harris announced the economic policy she would implement within 100 days -including up to 1.7 trillion US dollars (about 2.21 trillion yuan) subsidies, mainly including: one, Promise to build 3 million new houses within four years, issue US $ 25,000 of each home buyer for the first time;Explain which income is "low -income" and "secondary income"; 3. Third, promise to "cancel millions of Americans's medical debt and help them avoid accumulating such debts in the future", limit drug prices, and pay more than the government to pay; Four, To restrict the price of retail industry, reduce the cost of grocery in food, including cooperation with Congress to prohibit prices, or prevent sellers from excessive pricing of the product.If the price of food rises too much, it will be fined high.

The cake sent is big enough, but the most critical one does not explain: Where does the money from making cakes come from?Many reporters raised this question for Harris. She said impatiently that the cost of asking how to pay several economic proposals proposed during the campaign was "a mistake."

However, she can't stop the mouths of all economists, including many think tank economists, including Harvard University of Economics Greg Mankiw, criticized her economic policy.Criticism is mainly concentrated in three points: First, housing subsidies will lead to inflation, leading to more serious fiscal deficits; 2. Control prices will cause shortage and forced distribution; 3. Express the source of funds.Harris's campaign team probably wanted to say that the source of funds was reliable, and it was confirmed on the 19th that she hoped to increase taxes of US $ 5 trillion in taxes to American families and enterprises.

The previous elections in the United States have proved that increasing taxes have never been popular. Mainstream media support Harris. The tax increase plans have basically brought it gently, and readers hardly notice.Within a week after the release, only the U.S. tax reform website lists this plan in detail and commented.

Tax increase plan "tax on the rich" label

The main content of the 5 trillion US dollars of tax increases includes:

1. Increase the current 21%federal corporate income tax rate to 28%, higher than the 25%of Communist China and the average level of 21%of the European Union;New rules for international taxes are bundled together to levy 21%of the world's lowest tax rate for American companies; 4. The increase of stock repurchase taxes four times -Harris tax will affect all 401 (K) retirement welfare plan or individual pension account(IRA) Americans or union pensions; 5. 30%of the federal consumption tax for electricity for cryptocurrency mining;The second inheritance tax is levied;

Trump's tax policy

This article pointed out that in order to tax, the size of the IRS must be greatly expanded.拜登被要求退选的主要原因，其实是经济政策的失败，因此，民主党内原本曾希望哈里斯远离拜登经济学，但在政府干预经济上，如前所述，哈里斯走得比拜December farther.In terms of tax policies, Harris actually inherited most of Biden's claims, such as one, two, three, seventh, and nine; and the wealth tax on unrealized income is completely unconstitutional.The expected income cannot be taxed.

Trump's three campaigns have advocated domestic tax cuts. In November 2017, a tax reduction and employment bill (TCJA) were announced, affecting a lot of individuals and corporate companies in the United States.Prior to Trump, the US company's tax rate was 31%, and TCJA reduced the company's tax rate to 21%. In addition, the pass deduction of small enterprises was canceled, so that the operating income of these companies obtained a 20%tax reduction and exemption.At that time, because Democrats opposed the bill, it stipulated that the bill would expire in December 2025.

The Democratic Party has been attacking Trump's TCJA to reduce the tax and exemption of the rich. It is not mentioned that the middle class has also benefited from it.For example, according to TCJA, a middle -class family with an average income from 49,000 US dollars to $ 86,000, its tax burden decreased by 800 US dollars, a decrease of 1.4%on the basis of tax reduction and exemption; income from 300,800 US dollars to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000 to to $ 300,000.The upper class between 733,000 US dollars was reduced by 3.4%.

The tax policy announced during the 2024 Trump campaign, extending outward on the basis of maintaining the original TCJA, mainly includes the so -called baseline tariffs that are generally collected by all imported goods in the United States, and all imported US goods imported from China60%of tariffs, while maintaining the TCJA tax reduction policy, specifically to reduce the personal income tax and exemption of personal income tax and corporate income tax reduction in TCJA.

Voters' attitude towards tax

Tax policies are one of the biggest differences between the two major parties of the United States. Even the majority of Congress seats may lead to huge differences in corporate profits and family financial conditions.Therefore, all tax voters (many voters of Democratic Party do not need to pay taxes) are concerned about tax policies.

On March 26 this year, Bloomberg announced the polls of the agency on the seven swing states on the tax issue. The results showed that the investigation of voters showed that Trump's tax policy was more trusted, and 47%led 35%to Bynden.EssenceHowever, only 50%of Trump's tariff policies have supported 60%tariffs on imported goods in China and 26%opposed; 49%of the surveyed voters support generally levied baseline tariffs, 25%opposed.

The polls also show that "taxing to the rich" has become a policy stand welcomed by the key states of this year's election. Among the seven swing states, 69%of registered voters support the billionaire and annual income of more than 40.For 10,000 US dollars of tax increases, supporters include 58%of Republicans, 83%of Democrats and 66%of non -party non -party.At the same time, most voters still want to maintain a policy of reduction in personal income tax and inheritance tax, and only 32%of the surveyed voters support allows TCJA tax cutting policies to expire in 2025.

Voters have different attitudes towards Trump's domestic tax policy and tariff policies. The reason is also clear at a glance.The support for domestic tax policies reflects the demand for the US taxpayer's demand for tax reduction policies and believes that the TCJA policyCan increase taxpayer's post -tax income and promote economic growth and employment opportunities.The opposition to high tariff policies may be that voters are worried that high tariffs will lead to rising commodity prices, exacerbate inflation, and may even trigger a trade war and have a negative impact on the economy.

The

TCJA policy responded to the attention of the issue of wealth distribution in inequality in the United States to a certain extent, caters to the basic propositions of economic fairness and fairness in American society, and obtained widespread support from voters.According to the US Ministry of Finance's 2019 report, TCJA reduced the unemployment rate of 24 states to the lowest history.Although Biden's tax policy emphasizes increasing taxes to the rich and reducing the disposable income of high -income groups, it has not increased the after -tax income of low -income groups; increasing corporate tax rates and capital profitsImpact and reduce the international competitiveness of the United States, and then slow down economic growth.The Tax Foundation is initially estimated that Biden's 2025 fiscal year budget will reduce the long -term domestic GDP (GDP) by 2.2%, the current GDP decreases by 1.9%, the salary is reduced by 1.6%, and a full -time job of a full -time job is reduced.

Trump's economic development during his termination has benefited Americans; Harris's economic policy, especially tax, basically inherited "Biden Economics". She has no creativity and lack of good results in politics in the past.Therefore, in the first battlefield of the campaign, Harris may not have the possibility of winning; but the second battlefield involves the dispute over the election rules. The Republican Party tries to restore the election rules of the election election of 2016 and before., Democratic Dominion voting system; the Democratic Party insists on not verifying identity, encouraging illegal immigration voting, mailing votes, and still using the Dominion voting system.Today, this battle involving rules is in full swing, especially in seven battlefield states, which is particularly fierce. It can be predicted and decided that the factor of this election battle is not completely in the first battlefield.

The author is a Chinese economist in the United States