Regarding the current situation of the Chinese economy, if you ask the Chinese, you can get very different feedback.Cognition of the Chinese economy can be divided into two opposite views: depression or prosperity, difficulty or light, confused or hope.In this regard, this article attempts to give a route to recognize China's economic situation and trend.
From economic data, it can prove that the above two opposition cognitions, such as: stock market downturn, low employment rate of college students, decline in housing prices, reduction of foreign direct investment (FDI), or even net outflows in individual months.It is strongly explained that there are indeed problems in the economy.
On the other hand, exports are strong, especially for electromechanical products with high technology content.The most representative automobile industry in the manufacturing industry is even more dazzling. The export volume has surpassed South Korea, Germany, and Japan for three years and became the first exporter.In the first half of this year, export leading continued to expand, and the domestic market share of China's own brands increased rapidly.One of the major features of China's automobile industry is the integrity of the country's industrial chain, which makes fertilizer water flowing out of outsiders.The chip industry, which was severely blocked by the United States, has been in dangerous chip industry. With the production lines invested in more than 30 production lines in the past three years, from last year, both domestic alternatives and exports have shown a trend of volume and rising prices.The success of the Huawei Kirin chip marks the large -scale upper scale of the mature process and simultaneously improved at the technical level. SMIC also surpasses the TSMC and the United States core in terms of turnover and technical capabilities.Essence
These dark and bright data coexist, how to understand and evaluate, is related to a key issue for the stable and sustainable development of China's future economy: secondary income traps.
After 40 years of reform and opening up, the economy has quickly integrated into global integration. It has long been with the main advantageous resources of attracting investment, export -oriented, and creating employment. It is a low and high -quality labor force.With the salary of industrial workers and engineers and managers, it has increased rapidly in the past 10 years, and has surpassed Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, etc., and even the salary of technical personnel in some industries.Disappear quickly.The survival space and international competitiveness of the low -tech labor -intensive industries that create huge jobs have reached the crossroads.For example, traditional export doors such as clothing, toys, and ordinary electrical appliances face competition from Asians and South Asian countries.This kind of pressure from corporate management to employment, the majority of workers who are employed, are difficult to do, difficulty in employment, low income, accompanied by falling house prices and mortgage pressure, especially young and middle -aged workers feel the difficulties of living environment and have to be cautious.Consumption power weakened.
The goal of Chinese urbanization is to settle in the city by 65%of the population by 2025.The goal was completed in advance at the end of 2022, which means that the real estate industry that creates a huge employment and related industrial chain has officially ended the period of high -speed growth; the consequences and fertility rates of early family planning have continued to decline, andLong -term sharpness.
It is necessary to span the medium -income trap. For a long time in the future, the difficult industrial structure adjustment must rely on the technical level simultaneous improvement to create the added value and profitability of the commensurate.At present, the improvement of China's industrial technology level is in full swing, covering most industrial categories.For example, the long -term dependence of foreign components, raw materials and intellectual property rights in China's manufacturing industry is changing. Some multinational companies withdrew some investment in China. The bigger reason is that the competitiveness of local enterprises has improved and squeezed foreign capital out of the Chinese market.Take the weakest chip industry in China, for example, from manufacturing and testing equipment, consumables, and electronic design automation has long relied on Europe, America, Japan and Taiwan, but in recent years, China's local equipment market has accounted for 40 %.Qi -liquid raw materials have been fully covered (some can only meet the lower levels of technology, but solve the problem of no matter).With the launch of the third phase of the Great Fund, the size of the chip industry will become the world's first in three years, which will be a high probability event.Chen Nanxiang, chairman of the Yangtze River Storage, recently said that the Chinese chip industry will achieve explosive growth within three to five years.This industry will create millions of employment opportunities.
Industrial Make -up and Raising levels are strongly promoting
The weakest industry category in China is the civil aviation and aviation engine industry that has long been monopolized by Europe and the United States.With the production of C919 and the success of military voyages, it means that China has figured out the roadmap of designing large -scale civil aircraft with international aircraft standards and breaking the most of the material preparation capabilities.The localization of a large aircraft-20 (available passenger) (can be carried by passengers) indicates that the technical threshold of domestic supporting support for large aircraft subsystems in China has broken through.The author judges that in 10 years, domestic large aircraft and aerospace will be another high value -added industry category that creates hundreds of thousands of direct employment opportunities.
The development and strong exports of Chinese new energy vehicles will create millions of employment opportunities. By AYD has increased 500,000 employees in the past three years.
Overall, China's industry supplementation and level improvement are strongly advanced.But another problem is that, with robots and intelligent applications, it will be a great challenge to fully meet the population employment from traditional industries.
This brings another contradiction.On the one hand, the improvement of China's industrial level and scale creates more employment opportunities, but there are more large -scale employment opportunities for traditional industries to disappear. This contradiction will long -term trouble in Chinese society.For example, the real estate chain will lose millions of employment opportunities, most of them are labor -capable labor with weak technical capabilities, and it is not easy to absorb these labor force by relying on new industry categories.
In summary, the Long March, which across the medium -income traps across the middle income trap, advances in the mud. From the perspective of the country as a whole, victory is looking at it.But from the perspective of the people, how to achieve full employment and common prosperity will be a long -term challenge.As for how the new bureau is planned, it is another topic.
The author is a local publisher, strategy and industrial consultant
