If Trump Wans is elected, the era of ＂weak dollars＂ is coming?

Trump chose the Ohio Senate J. D. Wans as the vice presidential candidate. In terms of trade, taxation, and tough stances to China, the two have similar interests.But what may have the most extensive impact on the United States and the global economy is their common preference for vulnerable dollars.

In most cases, Trump likes his policy to show "strong", but he has been expressing different views on the exchange rate of the US dollar.He believes that the strength of the US dollar makes it more difficult for American manufacturers to sell products to overseas buyers using weaker currencies.Because the currency value of those countries is far lower than the US dollar they need to purchase.

"As your president, some people will think that I will be happy to see a very strong US dollar, not!" Trump said in 2019 that he mentioned that American companies such as Carter Pie and Boeing were in a difficult competition.

Since World War II, the dollar has been the dominant currency in the world. According to data from the Congress Research and Service Department, about 60%of the foreign exchange reserves of central banks in various countries are US dollars.

Since the 1990s, the United States has maintained a "strong US dollar" policy. At that time, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said he did not consider it to pose a threat to American companies' ability to compete overseas.The United States will avoid taking measures to guide the US dollar to strengthen, and the Minister of Finance tends to believe that the value of monetary should be determined by market power.When China and other countries take action to lower the currency exchange rate, the United States will rebuke them as the exchange rate manipulating country.

It is not clear how Trump will weaken the dollar.His Ministry of Finance can try to sell US dollars to purchase foreign currency or convince the Fed to print more dollars.

Coordinated policy changes may have an impact on various international trade.The depreciation of the US dollar, coupled with the plan for Trump to raise import tariffs, may also reinvigorate inflation when the price increase will slow down.

"Declars will increase inflation," said Mark Sorbell, President of the Ministry of Finance, the current official currency and financial institution forum."The same is true of increasing tariffs. In addition, highly expanding fiscal policy will increase demand pressure."

Those who are suspicious of a strong US dollar say that this will lead to the high price of US export products in overseas markets. What is damaged is the interests of American workers.It is consistent.

At the Senate hearing last year, Wans echoed Trump's concerns while questioning the Fed Chairman Jerom Powell.He said that the US dollar as a reserve currency (means that the dollar is widely held by the central banks around the world and is accepted by most exchanges) is subsidies for American consumers, but it is a tax on American manufacturers.

"I know that a strong dollar is a holy cow in the Washington consensus to a certain extent, but when I investigate the US economy, I see that on the one hand, we have a large amount of imported goods that are basically useless, and on the other hand, our industrial industryThe foundation is hollowed out. I want to know whether there are some disadvantages for the status of reserve currency, not only good, "Wan Si said.

Powell responded that the United States benefited from its status of reserve currency, which made it possible to buy goods from all over the world.He also said that no obvious currency can replace the US dollar.

Due to the rise in interest rates, the US dollar has appreciated the currency of other countries, and the strength of the US dollar has received global attention this year.This may make the problems faced by the central banks that are working hard to deal with inflation, and it will increase the price of US export products, thereby expanding the US trade deficit, which is disgusted by Trump.

The Republican Party called for the position of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in the 2024 election program, but if Trump and Wans were elected this year, they may still try to weaken the US dollar.Politico magazine reported this year that Trump's former trading consultant Robert Latechizer may be one of the candidates for the next financial minister. If the former president winsQuestion.

Trump may try to depreciate the US dollar, either a signal of policy transformation. At the end of Powell in 2026, he appointed a new US Fed Chairman who might reduce interest rate cuts, or tried to use tariff threats to force other countries to take action to allow the local currency to make the local currencyappreciation.

Researcher Brad Sezight, a researcher at the Foreign Relations Committee, who had worked at the Biden Government Trade Office, said that the Trump Wande team faced "core contradictions" on the economic agenda.He pointed out that Trump's tax reduction plan may expand its fiscal deficit and push high interest rates to support the US dollar.At the same time, Trump's trade agenda is likely to encourage other countries to depreciate the local dollar to the US dollar to respond to his tariffs.

Trump called for 10%tariffs on all imported goods and levied 60%of tariffs on goods imported from China.

"If you punish other countries and use tariffs to fight them and reduce their export value, the result is often their currency depreciation," Setzz said.

Lawrence Summes, who had served as Minister of Finance in the Clinton government, said that the depreciation of the US dollar may lead to "stagnation" -the price increase and economic growth have slowed down.

"If the government in a country does not care about the value of the local currency, why should others care about it?" Sammes said."While increasing tariffs while depreciating the dollar is a self -imposed supply impact."

Although Trump is very interested in the weakening of the US dollar, the information he released on this issue is not clear.

In 2017, he told the Wall Street Journal that the US dollar was "too strong."However, in the second year, Trump said in an interview with CNBC that "I eventually wanted to see a strong US dollar." Previously, his financial minister Steven Manuchin said that the weakening of the US dollar may be conducive to trade, leading to the US dollarThe index fell sharply.

But in April this year, with the significant appreciation of the dollar against the yen, Trump said that the stronger dollar will make American companies unable to survive.

"This sounds good for stupid people, but for our manufacturers and others, this is a disaster," Trump wrote on social media.