Source: Bloomberg
Trump's leader in the polls of the US presidential election has prompted investors to be eager to find out key winning transactions in the global market.History shows that the Japanese stock market is a good choice.
After Trump won the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the Japan Dongzhi Index increased by nearly 30%in the next year, and the S & P 500 Index and MSCI developed markets of about 20%were rising by about 20%.index.Strategicists said that the booster effect brought by the weak yen will help Japanese stocks. At the same time, the fund will take a stronger position in China because of the expected Trump's election.Essence
"The rise in US debt yields led to the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar, which should also support the Japanese stock market," said Tomo Kinoshita, a global market strategist of Invesco Asset Management Japan.In view of the dominance of manufacturing companies in the Japanese stock market, "although Trump's victory will benefit most of the Asian stock markets other than China, the Japanese stock market should benefit more."
Over the years, the Japanese stock market has been ignored on the occasion of the rapidly growing market, but recently there have been signs that the country's economy has got rid of the tightening of exchanges and has embarked on the road of sustainable growth.EssenceOn Thursday, the Dongzhi Index broke through the peak of the foam era and touched a record high. The new round of buying may further stimulate the stock market rise.
A large part of the stock market will boost from the depreciation of the yen, because it is conducive to the exports of manufacturers such as Toyota Motors and Nissan Motors. According to data summarized by the Bloomberg and Tokyo Stock Exchange, manufacturing companies account for Japan's market value.More than half.
With the expansion of Japan and the United States, the yen has fallen nearly 13%against the US dollar this year, and it is the most important main currency.
Valuation is another factor.In addition to the major markets outside China, the lowest valuation stocks are in Japan, and the P / E ratio of the Japan growth stock index of MSCI Inc. based on the 1 -year long -term mixed profit forecast is 22 times.
It is clear that if Trump wins, it may not fully boost the Japanese stock market.One of the reasons is that if the tensions between Beijing and Washington have intensified, then stocks that have a lot of risk exposure to China may be hit.
"If Trump is re -elected, we believe that Japan will not be the safest market in Asia," said Jasmine Duan, a senior investment strategist of RBC Wealth Management Asia."If the Japanese yen continues to weaken, the Trump administration may take action to force the yen to appreciate, which may be conducive to the Chinese stock market."
But some people say that the Japanese stock market may become potential beneficiaries, because Trump is expected to take a stronger position, and global funds will transfer funds from China.The former president said that if he was elected, he might impose more than 60%of tariffs on Chinese goods.
