Active use of force to change the status quo is no longer in line with the mainstream values of human beings in the 21st century.Unless the self -defense or the United Nations Security Council is authorized, the national disputes are no longer legitimated and will no longer be accepted by human society; if the abuse of self -defense or the authorization of the Security Council, such as continuously killing civilians, the war is not legitimate.
In February 2022, the Russian and Ukraine War broke out, and in October 2023, the Harbin War broke out.The two wars are still continuing, and they cannot see the end, but they will continue to change the world.
The Russian strategy is defeated and the tactics are unbeaten. At the beginning of the war, the author made this judgment.The so -called strategic defeat refers to the biggest stain in the invasion of Ukraine to become Putin's political career; Russian military expenditure exceeds one -third of the fiscal expenditure, and it is unable to invest in science and technology and education for the future rise.It has become a second -class country; Wu Li's heart power is irreversible, accelerating to the United States, NATO, and the European Union; the further deterioration of the Russian security environment has failed to prevent NATO further expand; NATO and Europe are no longer afraid of routine the Russian army.
The so -called tactical undefeated means that there are still good cards such as sufficient soldiers, vast land, and rich resources in Russian President Putin. The most critical hole cards are huge nuclear arsenal. The US and NATO are concerned and dare not end.Putin started to say that the West had to "thank" the Russian army shortly. This was a big truth, which means that the Russian army was on the front line, and he did not force him to consider using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.It was a good fighting for half a year. At present, the battle situation is obviously conducive to Russia. Especially after opening the second battlefield in the direction of Halkov, the Ukraine has a high risk of collapse.Recently, the United States, Germany, France, France, and NATO have increased military aid, allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons to attack Russia's local military targets.
Putin shouted many times, and was willing to negotiate peacefully with Ukraine. One of the conditions was based on the status quo, implying that the Ukrainian territory was legalized; one of the many statements and discussion conditions of Ukrainian President Zelei was returned to 2014The border implies that all the occupied territories, including Crimea.Unless the absolute advantage of the battlefield is one side, the price of the two sides cannot be satisfied.Negotiation means compromise. The end result must be that both parties go to the middle. Russia continues to occupy Crimea and Ukraine to join the European Union to be available.
As for Israel, it is a strategic defeat and a tactical defeat.The so -called strategic defeat means that although Israel illegally occupied Palestinian, Syria, and Lebanon's territory as a buffer although the Israeli war is not safe.The unprecedented terrorist attacks forcibly interrupted it; the anti -terrorist war must be played, and the strength of the army must crush Hamas. It can be dragged for up to two months to the end of last year.The speed decision repeated the serious mistakes of the United States' anti -terrorism war in Afghanistan.
The so -called tactical defeat refers to the Bombing of the Israeli Army in the Gaza Strip, and lived a limited military operation to exercise self -defense rights into a comprehensive war and collective punishment for Palestinian civilians.There are more and more people who have encountered tragic encounters, and more and more supporting operations. Instead, they pay less attention to the victims and hostages of terrorist attacks on Israel last October 7.Israel threatened to fight for another seven months, and would only be deeper.
Hamas has stated that unless Israel admits permanent ceasefire and withdraw troops from Gaza, he will never accept any peace agreement; Israeli Prime Minister Neyahu still insists on eliminating Hamas, and it is impossible to stop the fire permanently.The problem is that Hamas must not be eliminated by force. The Episer's atrocities in Gaza actually became the best conquered advertisement for Hamas, but increased the prestige of Hamas in Palestine and Arab countries.Every time the Israeli army kills a Palestinian civilian, Hamas will have one more radical in the future.
Russia faces unprecedented isolation
Russia is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, as well as the United States, which has long favorant Israel.Since the outbreak of the two wars, Russia and the United States have used two and five veto respectively, resulting in the Security Council's failure to fully condemn and sanction Russia, and cannot fulfill the power of the UN Charter to safeguard the security and security of the Security Council.The Security Council was forced to do nothing, but instead promoted the willingness and actions of global maintenance.
Even if the two major powers of the Russian and Ukraine War maintained "neutrality", although they have repeatedly voted for votes at the United University, they have maintained a subtle distance from Russia.Indian Prime Minister Modi expressed his objections in the face of Putin; China repeatedly stated that he respects the UN Charter, respects national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and indirectly expressed objections to war in Russia.If it wasn't for the outbreak of the Harbin war, the global focus was scattered, and Russia would suffer greater international pressure.
After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the United States led Western isolation and sanctioning Russia. In fact, I dug two large pits for themselves: 1. It is difficult to rush to the world in the future.War; 2. The "dual -standard" operation of the United States' favoring Israel's atrocities in the Security Council can easily cause global public anger and be at the same high risk as the same isolated from Russia.
On April 18, 2024, the United States voted to veto the draft Palestinian decision resolution. In the explanatory speech after the Security Council's voting, the member state of the Security Council did not have the members of the Palestinian State "whether it meets the members of the United Nations Charter.Standards "reached an agreement (by: According to the judgment of the voting, only the United States opposed)," there are still some unreasonable issues. "It is strongly implied that Palestinian is not "hobbly peace", so it is not qualified to enter the Alliance. This is a great insult to the Palestinian country and the people, and has been suspected of racial discrimination.There are also terrorists and terrorist organizations in the United States. Could it be that the United States and their people do not like peace and cannot join the United Nations on the grounds of this reason.
Fast, in accordance with the precedent of Russia's abuse of veto in the Security Council, the international community fell to Palestine's justice.On May 10, the 10th UN General Assembly Special Conference passed historic resolutions with 143 votes in favor, nine -vote opposition, and 25 votes abstainable voting.Actions clearly define Israel's "illegal".The resolution publicly sang against the United States. "UN member states generally stated that supporting the acceptance of the Palestinian State as the United Nations Member State", determining that the Palestinian State is in compliance with the qualifications of member states stipulated in Article 4 of the United Nations Charter."Angle" reviews the application of Pakistana.
According to the United Nations Charter, only the Security Council resolves can be compulsory binding, but the UN General Assembly decision is morally binding, especially more than two -thirds of the three -thirds, and most of them have passed since then, which can clearly indicate world trends and people's hearts.Any big country has pressure, and the United States and Russia are no exception.
Peaceful care, fairness.Witnessing the humanitarian catastrophe of Ukraine and Gaza Strip, the international community did not stand by, and the United Nations Conference repeatedly voted for the anti -war position of most countries.The active change of the status quo with force is no longer in line with the mainstream values of human beings in the 21st century.Unless the self -defense or the United Nations Security Council authorized, the national disputes are no longer legitimate and no longer accepted by human society.If the abuse of self -defense or the security of the Security Council, such as continuously killing civilians, war is not legitimacy.
The author is a Chinese current affairs commentator
