Comments: Water Lu, who puts a basket that is good and diversified in eggs, shocked Wa

Source: Bloomberg

Author: Lu Wang

In fact, everything they do is correct. In order to prevent the deterioration of the market, investments are widely scattered on bonds and stocks.However, these people who listened to Wall Street's diversified investment can only look at the US stock market all the way, and they were thrown behind them again.

Numbers are cruel.Compared with those fund managers who simply buy the S & P 500 index and then, follow the ancient wisdom of the financial industry and distribute investment in different markets and regions.For example, of about 370 funds tracked in Morning Star, only one has won the S & P 500 index since 2009.

This is a major lesson, but it is not a disaster.According to the model of the Cambria Fund, the annual return rate of a diversified investment portfolio fund has been about 6%since 2009.The situation may become worse.In general, in the past 15 years, the performance of decentralized investment portfolios in 13 years is weaker than the S & P 500 index. In the statistics of the past century, this situation has only occurred once.

For small investors and large fund managers, running the market will bring great psychological pressure, especially for those who strictly abide by the concept of textbook investment.According to a recent research statistics of Preqin, institutional investors such as pensions, foundations, and foundations have US $ 21 trillion adopted a traditional diversified strategy, and investments are scattered to a wide range of areas including bonds, stocks, real estate and cash.

betting on US stocks seems very dangerous, because Nvidia and other technology giants dominate the world's largest stock market, which constitutes unprecedented concentration risks for US stocks.At the same time, US debt yields are high. If the stock market plummets, the market can provide potential buffer.However, the fans of the diversified investment strategy are also doubtful.Thanks to the reliable profit growth of American companies, U.S. stocks are the best investment options every year.Holding any other assets has a record of poor performance.

The founder of the investment company Cambria, also the MEB Faber, who is also an expert in the investment portfolio, said that in the past 15 years, it has been a "bear market for diversified investment strategies."Although his Cambria global asset allocation ETF (GAA) was 5%of its annualized return, it has been running the 500 Index 500 index since its establishment.

Since the global financial crisis, the US stock market has been soaring all the way, and has almost won all assets. In the same period, the US debt return rate has been suppressed in the era of zero interest rates, and the peripheral stock market is also sluggish under the influence of a strong US dollar.The S & P 500 Index has increased by 14%year -old, twice the increase in stocks in developing countries, and three times the increase in investment -level bonds.

These data make those who criticize investment diversified strategies.Last year, some scholars published a research article saying that retirees are best to avoid bonds.

People who support modern diversified asset allocation strategies refute that assets such as fixed income can allow individual investors to better match financial income with future expenditure.In addition, between 2000 and 2008, the diversified investment strategy won, and the stock market had two market value.

"In the worst days, diversification is your best friend," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at Morgan Asset Management.The correct asset allocation is a bit like home insurance.You never know when it will need it, but if not, you will definitely feel uneasy. "

Many large institutional investors follow this concept, and they regularly adjust their positions to return to the ideal asset allocation level.

Of course, the return rate is not the only important factor.Another consideration is how much turmoil must be endured to achieve profitability.According to a risk adjustment indicator called the Sharp ratio, Cambria's global asset allocation model has been better than the S & P 500 index since 1927.

But after the Fed rescued the market during the financial crisis in 2008, the situation began to change.Since then, the S & P 500 Index has staged an almost continuous uptrend, and the volatility has been suppressed, which has led to a rise in Sharp ratio.

Research Affiliates Chief stock strategy investment officer Que Nguyen said that in a diversified investment portfolio, many customers are increasingly doubting whether investment in small -cap stocks and non -US stocks can bring benefits.

"What we have seen in the past 15 years has become bigger and bigger," she said."You don't want to put all the eggs in a basket, but it is difficult to adhere to your faith."

David Rogal, the investment group manager of Belaide, said that inflation may continue to maintain stickiness. As the government increases the supply of government bonds to meet financial needs, there is a downward risk of government bonds.

He recently pointed out in a group discussion hosted by MacromInds Foundation that "it is clear that the hedge tools in the bond market as an investment portfolio have become less reliable."

Cambria's Faber said indicating that American investors are adapted to the new system, including deepening preferences for the local market and willing to make stock holdings reach a record level.At the same time, large fund companies are turning to alternative assets such as non -listed companies to boost performance.