With the rise of the military strength of mainland China, the geographical value of Taiwan has continued to decline, and the security concerns of the mainland for Taiwan should also decline.Secondly, the national emotional factors in the Taiwan issue have risen relatively.The more important the emotional factors, the more important the two sides of the strait should consider the peaceful way. The unity of force will be counterproductive and hurt the emotions on both sides of the strait.
Will Taiwan still counterattack the mainland?In many people's eyes, this is a strange issue.However, for mainlanders born before the 1970s, the slogan of "counterattacking the mainland" is no stranger and threatened. Even this sense of insecurity has become the subconscious of some people, making them stillThe engraving of the boat to see the sword seriously affects the awareness and judgment of cross -strait relations, and then damage the cross -strait relations and the international environment required by China's development, and thus affects China's country's development to a certain extent.
After the Kuomintang retired from Taiwan, Chiang Kai -shek formulated a "counterattack" plan to counterattack mainland China, which was occupied by the Chinese government.This scene is not uncommon in Chinese history.After the original regime was overthrown, the remaining forces often tried to restore it, and the new regime tried to destroy it (including surrender and surrender), so the hostile relationship of the new and old regimes was arising.For example, after the Ming Dynasty was overthrown (borders of 1644), the Nanming Yongli regime (Taiwan) still insisted on preparing the ancient version of the "counterattack continent" until the grandson of Zheng Chenggong, Zheng Kezheng of Zheng Chenggong in 1683.
Why should the freshman Qing regime try to eliminate the Nanming regime?First of all, in the concept of traditional political legitimacy, the dispute between this kind of regime is not right or wrong. Only winning or losing, the winner is king, and the loser is the pirate.Secondly, in terms of military, the Taiwanese regime can indeed pose a threat to the Qing government, because Taiwan's land is not small enough to raise energy and accumulate combat effectiveness.Because the contemporary military environment has changed dramatically, this detail is based on the latter.
No matter in ancient or modern, at the military technical level, there are two aspects: reconnaissance ability and strike ability.If you cannot investigate, you cannot fight, and the investigation may not be able to fight, but the investigation will definitely help to fight.
In ancient times, military investigation capabilities were very weak, and field investigations were required to obtain intelligence.Even with undercover, first -hand intelligence must be obtained through field investigation.This situation has a classic example in Chinese history.In the seventh year of Han Gaozu (200 BC), the Huns hid their strength and the Han Dynasty intelligence staff was deceived, which led Liu Bang to attack the Huns and be besieged in the Bai Mountain for seven days.From Han Gaozu to Emperor Hanwu, the Han Dynasty has been preparing to fight back to the Huns. However, during the preparation time of the past 100 years, the Huns have not been able to obtain accurate information from the Han Dynasty.In the end, the Han Dynasty accumulated enough strength to defeat the Huns.Based on the same logic, if Taiwan is controlled by the hostile forces of mainland China and secretly saving military strength, this will indeed have a huge threat to the mainland, so Taiwan has important geographical value.
At the same time, in ancient times, the military strike efficiency was also very low. Only close contact between the war to fight against each other.Therefore, if Zheng Chenggong "counterattacks the mainland", the Qing Dynasty must mobilize a large number of soldiers and fight with Zheng Chenggong's army directly, which will cause huge containment and interference to the rule of the Qing Dynasty.The combination of the two is an important reason why Kangxi was determined to regain Taiwan with eternal trouble.
Based on the logic of recovering Taiwan in the Qing Dynasty, it can be understood that the hostile state on both sides of the strait after 1949 can be understood.Until 2000, the military capacity of the mainland was not strong enough.If Taiwan is controlled by hostile forces, it will indeed pose a threat to the mainland.This is exactly the concern of Deng Xiaoping. He said to the American reporter Wallace: "As long as Taiwan is unified, Taiwan's status as a Chinese territory is not guaranteed.Take it ", it will obviously threaten the mainland.Therefore, in 2000, Taiwan had important geographical value.This can be described as the previous life of Taiwan.
About 2000 as the border, the mainland's military capabilities have improved sharply.On the one hand, mainland military investigation capabilities are sufficient to grasp the basic military trends of Taiwan, including the approximate situation of foreign forces to intervene in Taiwan.On the other hand, mainland military strike capabilities have been able to crack down on Taiwan's military goals quickly, accurate, and long -distance.Therefore, today, the possibility of "counterattacking the mainland" in Taiwan is almost zero because it has neither corresponding strength nor legality.This means that Taiwan's security threat to the mainland has decreased significantly, and geographical value has also decreased significantly.This can be described as the current life of Taiwan's geographical value.
Jump out of the concept of re -thinking about the solution of the Taiwan issue
The reason why the Taiwan Strait crisis still exists today is even more intensified, which is largely because people are severely restricted by the traditional geopolitical concepts of World War II and the past.The traditional geopolitical concept itself is not wrong, but in the new era of change, we should re -examine many traditional concepts including geopolitical concepts.
The Gulf War was the first informatization war in human history. The death and injury ratio of the Iraqi army and the coalition forces exceeded 100: 1.In the Russia -Ukraine War, Ukraine only took over the attacks of the traditional military power Russia with the help of the second and third -class weapons supported by the United States and other countries.If the West is strongly supported, Russia will lose.The Gulf War and the Russian and Ukraine War showed that in contemporary and future wars, as scientific and technological effects became larger and larger, the geographical barriers would become smaller and smaller.There are specific technical assumptions or conditions behind all geographical concepts. The relationship between the two is: the more advanced technology, the smaller the geographical value.Therefore, in the current technological progress, the mainland should re -examine the geographical value of Taiwan and formulate a policy solution to the Taiwan issue more scientifically.
As mentioned earlier, today's Taiwan has neither counterattacking the mainland's strength nor counterattacking the mainland. What it thinks is to live a good life.The reason why Taiwan has to expand military reserve, including buying weapons from the United States, is mainly to prevent mainland martial arts Taiwan.
The reason why the mainland consumes a lot of costs on the Taiwan issue is to prevent Taiwan ’s threats to the mainland regime, that is, the so -called“ counterattack ”; the second is to prevent Taiwan’ s legal Taiwan independence.But as mentioned above, the first point is unnecessary.Regarding the second point of concerns, both sides of the strait seem to rethink and think: Since there is no intention to actively fight on both sides of the strait, and they all recognize a China (although there is a question of "one Chinese table").
I have done a survey on this prerequisite issue about the unified goal. The interviewees are graduate and above.But surprisingly, their answers were all diverse and sincere.This shows that people's cognition about Taiwan issues is confusing.This cognitive chaos will seriously interfere with and hinder the healthy development of cross -strait relations.
In the era of great change, we should jump out of the traditional concepts, re -think the Taiwan issue, and understand the new nature.
First of all, as the military strength of the mainland rises, the geographical value of Taiwan is declining (this is the logic of facts), and the security concerns of the mainland should also decrease with the security of Taiwan (this is cognitive logic).Secondly, the national emotional factors in the Taiwan issue have risen relatively.Deng Xiaoping said that the unification of the two sides of the strait was "first of all, the issue of the nation, the emotional issues of the nation."The more important the emotional factors, the more important the two sides of the strait should consider the peaceful way. The unity of force will be counterproductive and hurt the emotions on both sides of the strait.
This means that the time for peace and unity should be more abundant.Since Taiwan has not constituted a security threat to the mainland, the previous concerns are increasingly unnecessary. Therefore, cross -strait can adjust ideas, from long -term discussion, to seek peace and reunification for the Chinese nation, and create a peaceful environment for future generations.
In addition, if China solves the problem of Taiwan peacefully, it can provide a world model for solving historical problems.China has always tried to improve its soft power and international influence, and solve the Taiwan problem rationally and peacefully.
For the Taiwan issue, the Chinese should have rationality, orThere is emotion, but there should be no emotion.In the era of changing situations, whether the Taiwan issue can be solved peacefully and rationally, whether the Chinese nation tests whether the Chinese nation is wisdom or stupid.
The author is a professor at the School of International Relations of Sichuan University
