Source: Bloomberg
Author: Daniel Flatley, Eric Martin, Jennifer Jacobs
When Joe Biden was just taking office, he believed that the situation in the Middle East would not become the top priority in the United States, and now the turbulence in the region has become a core issue during his term of office and will threaten his re -election opportunity.
An important leader in the Middle East died suddenly, and the health of another leader was worrying. It was stated that before the November election, Bynden resolved Hamas's hopes for the tension caused by the attack on Israel on October 7.Dark.
Israel's action in Gaza has caused cracks within the Democratic Party of Biden, and has frustrated the US government's hope of reaching a major diplomatic agreement in the region.Now that Iran has entered the transfer of leadership, and Saudi Arabia may follow, the prospects of the Middle East have become more unstable.As the efforts of reaching a ceasefire fell into stagnation, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court of Criminal Court aimed at suing the actions of the crime of war of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Asana, and further highlighted the tension.
A person familiar with the matter who did not want to be named because of the incident that it had been disclosed that from meeting with senior national security assistants to frequent calls with leaders, the turbulent situation in the Middle East spent a few hours of worship every day.The person familiar with the matter said Biden personally participated in the decision to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia.
"This is not where the focus should be, but there is always a way to impose ourselves in the Middle East. This situation has been performed again."Dennis Ross, a researcher at the Institute of Policy Research, Washington, said.He said that the government was originally prepared to reduce the situation in the Middle East to a secondary position.
Iranian President Laish and the country's foreign minister and some other officials died in the crash of the helicopter on Sunday, which will promote Iran to hold a new round of elections.EssenceAt the same time in Saudi Arabia, the 88 -year -old king Salman is undergoing lung inflammation, leading to the postponing of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman.
When the Bayeng government came to power in January 2021, he hoped that the focus of foreign policies shifted from the Middle East to competition with China.Just last fall, his national security adviser Jack Shalvin also published an article in foreign affairs magazines saying that the Middle East was "quieter than decades."The version paid in early October last year called Biden's "self -discipline" approach one of the reasons for the ease of the situation in the Middle East.
Then Hamas attacked Israel, and Israel responded to the devastating attack on the Gaza Strip.The United States was dragged into the agent of Iran, and armed organizations with Syria, Iraq, and Yemen assaulted to miss missions and drones.Last month Iran attacked Israel for the first time, which caused concerns about the widespread regional war.
In the United States, Biden faces the increasingly strong criticism from the Democrats, asking it to reduce its support for Israel. At the same timepeople.With the end of the school year, these criticisms have calmed down, but if the conflict continues, then in the first few weeks of the election, the critical sound may be upgraded again, and now it seems that this is likely to happen.
No good choice
"Biden is now in any choice that will irritate some people," said Julian Zelizer, a historian at Princeton University.
For the Biden government, a positive factor is that the price of oil has almost no change, temporarily alleviating the concerns of the rising annual gasoline prices in the evenly matched election.
The U.S. government has been seeking ceasefire between Israel and Hamas for several months, but these efforts have fallen into stagnation in recent weeks.The United States and the European Union have listed Hamas as a terrorist organization.
The United States has always urged Israel to suspend the planned Lafaya military operation in the plan, but there are signs that Israel is still in my own way.Because more than 1 million civilians have refuated in the La Fa, Washington is worried that the invasion of the Israeli invasion of the army may cause more civilian casualties.At the same time, the efforts of providing assistance to the trapped civilians with the United States through the United States through the United States, they were in trouble due to security issues.
Randa Slim, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute, said that the ceasefire could lead to negotiations and "transferred public opinion in the United States from bombing and killing the Palestinians daily to Trump."
But as Bayen scheduled on June 27 was getting closer and closer to Trump's first debate, the time was not on the side of Biden.Given Bayon's fell in Trump in many polls, foreign leaders may start betting on both sides and refuse to accept any proposal from Biden.
"If he cannot be implemented before the first debate, then it is difficult, because why did the Saudi bet on an agreement that Biden could not be fulfilled?" She said. "If the Israelites also alsoThink so, why do they have to be with Biden? "
