Source: Bloomberg
Sybilla Gross
Although the news headlines may be occupied by the increasing increase of gold this year, it is silver.The strong financial and industrial demand has benefited this seemingly "tall" precious metal.
Silver has soared more than 25%this year, and has increased more than gold, becoming one of the best major commodities in this year.But relatively speaking, silver is still very cheap.At present, about 80 ounces of silver can be purchased for 1 ounce of gold, and the average level of 20 years is 68 ounces.
As of 11:07 in New York time on Friday, spot silver rose 3.97%to $ 30.7498 per ounce, the highest since February 2013.Gold prices rose 1.69%to $ 2417.02 per ounce.
The trend of these two metals is basically the same because they both have similar macro and currency hedging characteristics.Driven by the enthusiasm of the central banks in various countries, the enthusiasm of retail investors in the Chinese market, and the re -heating up the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts, the gold price touched the historical high, and the silver also took advantage of it.Although investors are not interested in Silver -supported exchange trading funds (ETFs), physical sales have heated up.Silver Bullion PTE, a dealer headquarters in Singapore, witnessed this situation.
The founder Gregor Gregersen said: "Even customers who intend to buy gold start to say 'Okay, maybe I buy silver first, wait for the gold and silver proportion to a new balance." From April 1st to 25th,The sales point sells 74 ounces of silver for each ounce of gold, while the average value of 2023 is 44 ounces.
Relatively speaking, silver has begun to move towards gold.As early as January, the gold and silver ratio exceeded 90, the highest level since September 2022.In a report, Citi Group pointed out that if the Fed promotes interest rate cuts and the economic growth remains strong in the second half of the year, the gold and silver ratio may reach about 70, but Citi reminds that the economic slowdown will increase the gold and silver ratio.
Silver has dual characteristics, which can be used as both financial assets and industrial inputs, including clean energy technology.According to the Silver Institute, silver is the main component of solar panels. With the strong growth of the industry, the amount of silver is expected to reach a record high this year.In this context, the silver market will be in short supply for the fourth consecutive year. This year's supply shortage is expected to record the second serious level.
Silver Bullion's Gregersen said that this led to industrial users who usually rely on miners to find silver by consuming major global inventory.The inventory tracked by the London Bullion Market Association (London Bullion Market Association) fell to the second low level in April, and the inventory of the New York and Shanghai Exchange was close to the seasonal low.
Daoming Securities believes that, in view of the current demand speed, the inventory of the London Gold and Silver Market Association may be exhausted in the next two years.Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist, said in a report in April that the overall number exaggerated the available silver amount because the number covered the holdings of ETF.
"We will slowly see the supply of supply tightening, because industrial demand will go up," Gregersen said. "If investors start buying, then I think that after two or three months, my biggest problem may be'Where can I find supply' instead of 'How do I sell silver?' "
