It is not difficult to foresee the consequences and endings of this new cold war, and there are almost no suspense.Since the macro ending is almost doomed, it is not as good as "studying more problems and discussing lessism."
Observing the evolution and development of the world situation, we should focus on the two fundamentals: one is to grasp the laws and trends of macro laws, and the other is to analyze typical events and cases.The two major levels and perspectives are supplemented by each other, so that they can constitute a relatively and reliable judgment and revelation.
The current world structure, the overall state is that the globalization process of more than 30 years in the Cold War is abruptly stopped, and it is replaced by a new round of cold war tried to get a comeback.Why do you still need to use the concept of "Cold War"?Because the author believes that some countries and forces that are trying to challenge the order of modern civilization are now trying to challenge the order of modern civilization. In terms of thinking, concepts and values, there are really no fresh things. Basically, they are restored to the old age., Middle Ages' sediment, dreams of Stalinism.
Therefore, although some challenges are ambitious, they also give themselves a magnificent name, but examine the old kernels of those thoughts and doctrines, and then refer to the abound lessons.It is foreseeable that the consequences and endings of this new cold war are almost without much suspense.After overcoming these dead ash and re -ignition and challenges, human civilization must jump into a brand new height in general, and it is expected to eventually abandon and get rid of the Cold War thinking and behavior, surpass this absurd historical change and strange circle.
Species of the East and West of totalitarian autocracy
Since the macro ending is almost doomed, it is better to "study more problems and talk lessism."Here, by reviewing the three typical cases that have occurred recently, it is not difficult to make these inspirations: the Cold War is still different from the culture; the relevant system is in essence that it is difficult to self -consistent; the zero -sum risk of territorial disputes has increased.
Israel and Iran erupted a round of direct armed conflicts in early April, and the whole process was quite incredible.After Hamas launched a terrorist attack on Israel last October, Israel was forced to fight back.Iran is recognized as the main supporters behind Hamas forces. Not only that, Iran has also mobilized the other two other Middle East armed forces that they support: Lebanese Albon Armed Forces and Yemen Hussean forces to restrain Israel's counterattack.Hamas was stubborn.
But Iran itself has always avoided military conflicts directly with Israel.In early April, Israel suddenly attacked an important goal in Syria and killed three high -level Iranian generals during the attack.Under the official anger of Iran, he retaliated with Israel. For a while, the battle was dense and the sword was tense.Some Iranian followers and supporters couldn't hold back their hearts. They thought that it was time to make Israel taste the Persian iron fist, and even the third World War may erupt. When I was in operation, I could touch the fish in muddy water.
But I did not expect Iran's so -called revenge on Israel quite ambiguous, or that the thunderous rain was small, and Iran was still worried about the expansion of conflicts and war than Israel.Iranian officials usually have no concealment of Israel's hatred, and repeatedly say that Israel "wipes out the map".However, when he was put into operation, he first softened, and finally only symbolized the launch of some drones and missiles to Israel, and issued an attack warning about nine hours in advance.This is clearly a big thing, a small and small attitude, which makes Iran's followers disappoint.
This seems to fulfill a law, that is, the thinking and behavior of traditional totalitarian autocratic countries is different in East and West.Western dictators must open up territory and invade external aggression, otherwise they cannot appear to be famous; oriental dictators will use to keep their rivers and mountains as the bottom line or core interest, led by agricultural social values.How to determine the conditions.Iran's behavioral model belongs to the Eastern and Western mixtures. He wants to expand the scope of the outside world, but also scares that he directly takes off the fire and burns. Therefore, he mainly rely on cultivating agents to achieve ambitions and attempts.
The second topic is about the recent internal crisis of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the government.In just a few months, Yue Communist Party has always been proud of the "four driving carriages": General Secretary, Prime Minister, President of the State, and President of Congress, they have fallen two driving one after another, accompanied by a major corruption case that shocked the country, and continuedoccur.For a long time, Vietnam has tried to implement more "intra -party democracy" measures, such as differential elections, separation of party and government, collective leadership, etc., which has indeed achieved considerable results, providing a benign driving force for national development.
Yue League reform takes one step back to abandon
But the reform of traditional socialist countries is facing a problem of "improvement to transformation and transformation of changes, and the transformation of quantitative change".First of all, being able to realize the huge limitations and even disadvantages of your own system, and determine the reform of the reform, which is the first step; then, dare to make reform measures in important key areas to change the dull and rigid pattern of the past. This is even more valuable improvement; If you come down, the reform may enter the deep water area. If you change it, you must hurt the bones and the phoenix nirvana. This is related to the final success or failure of the reform.
At the last key node, further the sea and the sky, and take a step back.The Vietnamese Communist Party seems to be in the name of selective anti -corruption to cut off the forces that claim reform inside and drive the reform of reform.Yes, the reform of traditional socialist countries has reached a certain scale and degree, and a large area of corruption will occur.But corruption is not the result of reform, but the motivation to continue to deepen reform.We must not abolish reforms due to corruption, but to strengthen and expand reform for this reason.The fundamental cause of corruption is that the power of the rule of law seriously lacks independent rule of law and the lack of transparent supervision of social and public opinion. This is the core area that must be covered by deepening reform.
The Chinese and Philippine disputes are close to the dangerous critical point
Of course, the risk of further deepening the reform may lose its own power and dominance.This is normal in a modern civilized country where democratic rule of law, a certain political party may be selected or selected.But traditional socialist countries often cannot pass this hurdle and can not let go of power.However, this will not only seriously hinder the development and progress of the nation, but also eventually lead to the subversion, conflict and tragedy of radical viciousness.Vietnam's advancement and retreat will also make Vietnam's future worry.
The third is the dispute over the territorial sea and islands and reefs of China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.Although from a legal perspective, China and the Philippines can hold their own positions on the sea and island reefs in the South China Sea, and each expressed that the Chinese side adheres to the traditional nine -segment principle.The ruling result.However, China and the Philippines are constantly approaching the dangerous critical point of a conflict in the dispute between Renai Reef (the Philippines called Ayunjin Reef).
In 1999, the Philippine forcibly sat on the beach on the Renai Reef, and has been stationed on the island reef for a long time.At present, this waste warship has been in Renai Reef for 25 years, close to separation and disintegration.With the tough stance of the Matsuza government in the Philippines, a new permanent residence facility must be built on the Renai Reef as the disintegration of abandoned warships in order to continue to declare and maintain the sovereignty of the Philippines to the islands and reefs.
China ’s position in recent years seems to provide supplies for personnel stationed on abandoned warships, but the Philippines is absolutely impossible to build a new generation of permanent residence facilities.The intention of the Chinese side is to eliminate the abandoned warships on the Renai Reef, and take the opportunity to seize the Renai Reef from the Philippines, or at least not allow the Filipino to continue to be guarded on the island reef.
In this case, China and the Philippine sides revolved around the dispute between benevolence reefs to form a dangerous, upcoming zero -harmony situation. As a result, only one party won the victory, and it was difficult to win a win -win situation with the bureau or.And because the Philippines has strengthened the common defensive relationship with the United States and Japan, the conflict between China and the Philippines in Renai Reef may trigger a direct conflict between China and the United States and Japan.This should be the situation where all parties work hard to avoid the occurrence, but the zero -sum thinking mode seems to have locked this unfortunate final, that is, the parties involved seem to be in a conflict and conflict.Although the island and reefs are small and the consequences are heavy. This zero -end crisis can only be resolved by relying on great wisdom.
(The author is an expert in international cultural strategy in the United States)
