U.S. Secretary of State Brills's visit to China, as expected, did not obtain specific gains on the major issue requesting China to stop assisting Russia to continue the Russia and Ukraine War.Ultimate ultimatum: If China does not deal with the problem of exporting military and civilians to Russia, the United States will deal with it.The United States opened the wind to the media in front of Brinken, and it did not rule out the big stick of financial sanctions, which greatly improved the key nature of this trip.Although the pressure is not small, China ’s response shows that Beijing is still at the watching stage. There are two factors, which is likely to determine the development of US -China relations in the future.
Observing from the meeting of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and President Xi Jinping and Brinken, in Beijing, Beijing is still unwilling to confront the United States at this stage. At the time of adhering to a strategic position, he only wants to make some concessions at the tactical level.Regarding the strong pressure of the United States on the Russia -Ukraine War, China expressed its firm position through lower levels.Yang Tao, the director of the North American Oceania Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on April 26 when blowing to the media that on the issue of Ukraine, China did not do any arched fuel pouring and taking advantage of the opportunity.China will not pay for the Russian and Ukraine War, let alone pay for the behavior of others.
In addition to the non -exit of the United States, another major concern for the United States -the export of other major concerns of the United States -the export of fatal synthetic opium analgesic medicine, China agrees to cooperate.On the same day when Xi Jinping and Wang Yi met with Brinden, Beijing rarely arranged for the State Councilor and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong to meet with Brinken directly to discuss cooperation with drug control.The U.S. Congress repeatedly accused Chinese allowance to produce fentanyl and condoned exports to the United States to poison the American people.According to the US think tank report, since 2000, 1 million Americans have died of abuse of drugs, and 1,500 people have died every week, which is the biggest threat to US public health, economic and national security.
China uses tactics to delay the time to delay the showdown with the United States. It may be due to the two major considerations: in the short term, it is waiting for the progress of the Russian and Ukraine war; in the middle period, the results of the US presidential election must be observed in the mid -term.The recent offensive of the Russian army. Whether the Ukrainian army that has just won the Western military can avoid the defeat of the big defeat is the key to reserved Beijing's position.If the Russian army comes out, it will increase China's negotiation chips to the West.If the Russian army fails, China will still have time to adjust its strategy.Putin, who has just re -elected Russian President, plans to visit China in May. Combined with the situation of the Russian and Ukraine battlefield, Beijing's attitude may be further clear.
The more important thing is the mid -term factor in the US presidential election in November.The polls of former US President Trump and the US President Bynden who won the re -election faced tremendous pressure on the latter.Although the two parties in the United States have become consistent with China, the degree of toughness is still different.It is generally believed that compared to Trump, who is considered not to play cards, the Bayeng team from the establishment of the establishment may be easier to deal with.Moreover, from the perspective of development, Biden is obviously unwilling to have a diplomatic branch before the election.Given that Trump faces multiple lawsuits, the independent candidate, Kennedy, seems to be separated from Trump some sources, and Beijing may plan to observe the results of the US presidential election before responding.
The Bayeng government also has to wait for the battlefield performance of the Ukraine to adjust the pressure on China accordingly.However, from the perspective of strategic deployment, it is already a consensus that Beijing's position in the West and Russia's selection is already a coordination with NATO and the European Union.In the past week, Britain announced his arrest and prosecuted two Chinese spies. After visiting the prime minister, the prime minister, the prime minister, announced the arrest of four Chinese spies.The British intelligence community even pointed out that this is just the tip of the iceberg.When Xi Jinping was preparing to visit France, Serbia and Hungary from May 5, this series of arrest operations obviously have strong pertinence.
It is generally believed that Brinkin's visit to China can temporarily ease the tension of US -China relations. In terms of specific issues such as anti -drugs and Taiwan Straits, the two parties may also obtain some understanding, but the pattern of the game between the two countries is basically unchanged, and even in some geographical geographyThe political field, such as the South China Sea, may also occur in the fire.The US -China maintains a situation of fighting without breaking, and is currently in line with each other's strategic interests.However, in terms of core interests, the United States and China not only have not yet established basic mutual trust, and the possibility of conflict still exists, and all walks of life have no reason for the United States and China relations.
