Comment: The global bond market plummeted and China Treasury bonds performed uniquely

Source: Bloomberg

The global bond market has ushered in a new round of plunge this year, but China Treasury bonds have performed unique.For investors, the low correlation between China and other global markets has made its comparative advantage highlight again, and many participants continue to be optimistic.

Bloomberg summary data shows that since this year, China's 10 -year Treasury bond yield has declined by about 30 basis points, while US debt yields have increased significantly nearly 80 basis points.Insufficient economic demand in China, the hidden concerns of the shrinking still exist, the currency is abundant under the looseness of the currency, and the asset shortage causes the organization to match the institution, and promote the debt bulls to Mercedes all the way.

However, other economies led by the United States tend to maintain high interest rates to suppress inflation. The economic and policy cycle is obviously running on to China. Since April, the market has expected that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate reduction will be delayed, which further exacerbates US debt to US debt.Sell.

"At present, most foreign fund managers will be tempted by US Treasury yields. However, if you consider the volatility of these markets, I think it makes sense to invest in China," Anben Asia's fixed income investment director EDMUND GOHsay.

He maintains super -allocated Chinese bonds, and holds a neutral point of view of US debt allocation. He believes that investing in the Chinese market is a mid -term bet. "We still think that the (economy) structurally slowed down in China."

However, with the spread of 10 -year Treasury bonds in China and the United States, it has expanded to about 240 basis points last week.EssenceAccording to official data, Bloomberg found that the proportion of foreign capital held by foreign capital at the end of March fell to 7.5%, near the minimum level in 2018.

Peng Yisheng, manager of Morgan Asset Management Asian Foreign Exchange and Interest Investment Portrait, said that the current valuation of Chinese Treasury bonds is too expensive. In view of the adjustment of US Treasury bonds, the necessity of further increasing China Treasury bonds is getting smaller and smaller.Funds from China Treasuries to US Treasury Bonds or other Asian interest rate markets. The acceleration of China's long -term bond interest rates has also triggered the risk of interest rates three times within one month.Zhou Shilei, director of the Global Financial Marketing Department of Dahua, pointed out that if interest rates have declined further, the central bank may guide large state -owned banks through windows to use bond borrowing and national bond futures to slow down the rapid decline in interest rates.However, he also emphasized that the guidance of the central bank is sometimes effective. If the yields of 10 years and 30 years have reached 2.3%and 2.5%, the central bank will not be excessively intervened.

Zhou Shilei even pointed out that China ’s inflation data is low, and the interest rate reduction momentum of the People's Bank of China is larger than other markets.A number of institutions including Goldman Sachs believe that the long -lasting pattern of Chinese government bond yields will not change.