Source: Hong Kong Zhongtong News Agency

The Indian People's Court (next to the council) election began the first stage of voting on April 19.Pre -election polls show that the current Prime Minister Modi and the People's Party led by him occupy obvious advantages and are likely to win.If Modi is successful, what does it mean to China and the world?

The current elections in India cover nearly 1 billion voters and 44 days in length, and its scale is rare.In this "huge" election, Modi said that the ruling party alliance is expected to win 400 seats in the 543 seats of the total seat, and it is like a "unrelated" status to the opposition National Party.

Modi's self -confidence comes from the governing results of the past decade.Since Modi took office in 2014, the "surgical" of "tax reforms" and "waste and disadvantages" has been carried out on the Indian economy, and the Indian economy has maintained rapid growth.More importantly, Modigo played the "Hindu nationalist" card and shaped the People's Party as "the guardian of the Hindu countries", and successfully won the enthusiastic support of nearly 1 billion Hinduists.

However, there is no shortage of dazzling political achievements.For example, in recent years, the high -speed growth in India has a large extent "lack of employment growth" (the domestic youth unemployment rate has reached 42%). The main benefit is the rich class with a population of 10%, and the general public has a poor sense of gain.In the context of Modi's continued promotion of "manufacturing in India, India's manufacturing industry accounts for GDP, but from 17%to 15%, Indian finished products exports are only equivalent to the 1/14 Vietnam.

In addition, Modi's "Hindu nationalism" policy has won the basic disk, but it has also buried the seeds of disputes in various sects in India, and aroused strong resistance from oppressed Muslims.In May 2023, the northeast of India broke out for several months of violence, causing at least 130 people to die and 35,000 people.

Despite many hidden concerns, Modi and the People's Party are still the most powerful power of India today.International analysts generally believe that Modi will win this election and continue to control India's development direction for 5 to 10 years.In the election, Modi even put forward the vision of building India into a developed country in 2047, showing a strong confidence in controlling the situation.

Wang Dehua, director and researcher of the South Asia and Central Institute of Shanghai International Issue Research Center, told Hong Kong China News Agency that if Modi can be re -elected this time, it will probably continue its foreign policy and be a "loud and colorful country".In 2049, he became the "second child in the world" country.

After Modi came to power in 2014, the cautious diplomacy that originally did "balanced power" from India gradually deviated from, and began to emphasize the aggressive diplomacy of "Indian -dominated", and even the leader of the "global southern country".To this end, India echoed the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" in the United States, greatly strengthened its relations with developed countries such as the United States, Japan, expanded confrontation with China in territorial and economic fields, and actively catered to the "Dragon Elephant dispute" in the West in the West.Ideology.

However, Modi's "Dream of the Great Country" has also been restricted by his insufficient national strength, making him have to show the actualist side.Recently, Prime Minister Modi rarely stated before the election, saying that China -India relations are very important. I hope that the two countries will solve the border issues as soon as possible.This positive statement may be related to the recent contradictions of India and the West in the assassination of the Sikhs in the Sikh tribe, but it does not rule out that Modi still wants to strengthen cooperation with China's manufacturing country to promote India's economic development.

China has always started from a united developing country and does not use India as a competitor. Instead, it hopes that China and India will become good partners and jointly support the international status of the south of the world.In terms of sensitive issues such as territory, China also adopted an attitude towards India, hoping that China and India will maintain peace and friendship.Wang Dehua believes that the "bitter heart" of China, India led by Modi should hear the right way to cooperate with China.